Maxwell Round Two projections
These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Dec 4
| Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
| 92.19 | AAAAAAA | Lowndes | 72.5% | 27 - 20 | 7 | North Cobb | AAAAAAA |
| 83.31 | AAAAAAA | Milton | 67.7% | 21 - 15 | 6 | Archer | AAAAAAA |
| 81.31 | AAAAAA | Westlake | 74.0% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Richmond Hill | AAAAAA |
| 81.14 | AAAAAAA | East Coweta | 63.1% | 26 - 21 | 5 | Parkview | AAAAAAA |
| 81.04 | AAAAAAA | Norcross | 84.4% | 30 - 16 | 14 | Roswell | AAAAAAA |
| 79.67 | AAAAAAA | North Gwinnett | 73.2% | 21 - 13 | 8 | West Forsyth | AAAAAAA |
| 78.04 | AAAAAA | Allatoona | 69.9% | 21 - 14 | 7 | Dacula | AAAAAA |
| 76.51 | AAAAA | Coffee | 77.6% | 21 - 11 | 10 | Starr's Mill | AAAAA |
| 76.06 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 98.9% | 36 - 0 | 36 | Walton | AAAAAAA |
| 75.84 | AAAAA | Cartersville | 78.3% | 26 - 14 | 12 | St. Pius X | AAAAA |
| 75.59 | AAAAAAA | Grayson | 97.1% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Harrison | AAAAAAA |
| 75.45 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 73.7% | 28 - 21 | 7 | Sprayberry | AAAAAA |
| 75.43 | AAA | Cedar Grove | 88.5% | 28 - 12 | 16 | Rockmart | AAA |
| 74.88 | AAAAAA | Rome | 52.7% | 21 - 21 | 0 | River Ridge | AAAAAA |
| 74.03 | AAAAAA | Hughes | 78.5% | 22 - 13 | 9 | Glynn Academy | AAAAAA |
| 73.36 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 91.6% | 29 - 7 | 22 | Denmark | AAAAAAA |
| 71.84 | AAAAA | Calhoun | 61.0% | 26 - 21 | 5 | Clarke Central | AAAAA |
| 70.49 | AAAA | Marist | 82.0% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Flowery Branch | AAAA |
| 70.39 | AAAAA | Ware County | 92.2% | 32 - 10 | 22 | Creekside | AAAAA |
| 70.18 | A Private | Fellowship Christian | 74.7% | 27 - 18 | 9 | Athens Academy | A Private |
| 70.10 | AAAAAA | Lee County | 96.6% | 32 - 0 | 32 | Brunswick | AAAAAA |
| 66.86 | A Public | Brooks County | 69.9% | 27 - 20 | 7 | Dublin | A Public |
| 66.48 | AAAAAA | Buford | 96.6% | 34 - 0 | 34 | Cambridge | AAAAAA |
| 66.38 | AA | Thomasville | 66.7% | 24 - 20 | 4 | Dodge County | AA |
| 65.97 | AAAA | Benedictine | 75.3% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Cairo | AAAA |
| 65.63 | AAAAA | Jones County | 78.4% | 28 - 17 | 11 | Griffin | AAAAA |
| 64.73 | AAA | Peach County | 88.1% | 29 - 13 | 16 | Thomson | AAA |
| 64.31 | AAA | Crisp County | 87.2% | 24 - 6 | 18 | Richmond Academy | AAA |
| 63.56 | AAAAA | Blessed Trinity | 95.8% | 35 - 7 | 28 | Decatur | AAAAA |
| 63.16 | AAAA | Jefferson | 96.4% | 30 - 0 | 30 | Hapeville Charter | AAAA |
| 62.82 | AA | Callaway | 68.6% | 22 - 15 | 7 | Lovett | AA |
| 62.81 | A Private | Christian Heritage | 69.0% | 27 - 20 | 7 | George Walton Academy | A Private |
| 61.74 | AAAAA | Eastside | 69.0% | 21 - 14 | 7 | New Manchester | AAAAA |
| 61.61 | AAAA | Cedartown | 82.8% | 28 - 14 | 14 | North Oconee | AAAA |
| 61.55 | AA | Early County | 59.4% | 27 - 22 | 5 | Bleckley County | AA |
| 60.45 | AA | Jefferson County | 62.0% | 23 - 20 | 3 | Jeff Davis | AA |
| 60.41 | AAAAAA | Valdosta | 97.4% | 35 - 0 | 35 | Evans | AAAAAA |
| 60.25 | AA | Fitzgerald | 95.1% | 33 - 6 | 27 | Northeast | AA |
| 60.15 | AAAA | Carver (Columbus) | 75.9% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Baldwin | AAAA |
| 60.13 | A Private | North Cobb Christian | 55.7% | 20 - 17 | 3 | Wesleyan | A Private |
| 60.12 | AAA | Carver (Atlanta) | 79.0% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Cherokee Bluff | AAA |
| 60.00 | AAAAA | Warner Robins | 98.6% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Woodward Academy | AAAAA |
| 59.41 | AAAA | Bainbridge | 90.6% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Islands | AAAA |
| 57.97 | AAA | Pierce County | 94.9% | 31 - 0 | 31 | Central (Macon) | AAA |
| 57.61 | AA | Fannin County | 75.8% | 28 - 20 | 8 | Heard County | AA |
| 57.29 | A Public | Clinch County | 64.9% | 22 - 18 | 4 | Pelham | A Public |
| 57.02 | A Public | Irwin County | 88.0% | 28 - 10 | 18 | Wilcox County | A Public |
| 56.50 | AAAA | Riverdale | 62.5% | 27 - 21 | 6 | Northwest Whitfield | AAAA |
| 54.21 | AAA | Oconee County | 97.8% | 36 - 0 | 36 | Dawson County | AAA |
| 54.08 | AAA | Appling County | 94.7% | 34 - 7 | 27 | Upson-Lee | AAA |
| 52.98 | A Private | Eagle's Landing Christian | 91.3% | 29 - 7 | 22 | Stratford Academy | A Private |
| 52.67 | A Private | Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) | 73.8% | 22 - 14 | 8 | Whitefield Academy | A Private |
| 52.51 | A Private | Prince Avenue Christian | 95.9% | 37 - 12 | 25 | Darlington | A Private |
| 52.47 | AAAA | Perry | 81.3% | 26 - 14 | 12 | LaGrange | AAAA |
| 52.21 | AAA | Greater Atlanta Christian | 96.5% | 35 - 6 | 29 | North Hall | AAA |
| 51.37 | AA | Bremen | 71.4% | 21 - 14 | 7 | South Atlanta | AA |
| 50.96 | A Private | Calvary Day | 59.6% | 21 - 17 | 4 | First Presbyterian | A Private |
| 50.09 | A Public | Washington-Wilkes | 79.3% | 27 - 14 | 13 | Bowdon | A Public |
| 49.37 | A Public | Commerce | 86.0% | 28 - 14 | 14 | Gordon Lee | A Public |
| 49.07 | A Public | Metter | 93.8% | 34 - 9 | 25 | Mitchell County | A Public |
| 47.66 | A Public | Lincoln County | 55.6% | 21 - 20 | 1 | Hancock Central | A Public |
| 46.64 | AA | Rabun County | 97.8% | 37 - 0 | 37 | Model | AA |
| 45.81 | A Private | Savannah Christian | 89.2% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Pacelli | A Private |
| 43.35 | A Public | Macon County | 90.2% | 28 - 7 | 21 | Warren County | A Public |
| 40.04 | GISA AAA | John Milledge Academy | 98.4% | 40 - 0 | 40 | Westfield School | GISA AAA |
| 39.26 | GISA AAA | Frederica Academy | 71.2% | 24 - 16 | 8 | Tiftarea Academy | GISA AAA |
| 32.65 | GISA AA | Gatewood School | 88.1% | 28 - 13 | 15 | Southwest Georgia Academy | GISA AA |
| 27.78 | GISA AA | Brentwood School | 88.3% | 29 - 13 | 16 | Briarwood Academy | GISA AA |
| 24.23 | GISA AA | Piedmont Academy | 69.3% | 22 - 14 | 8 | Thomas Jefferson | GISA AA |
