Arthur Smith is living his dream life. The Falcons coach worked his way from the bottom of the NFL coaching pyramid to obtain one of the top 32 jobs in the game.
Whether he particularly appreciates it, his responsibilities this week are what make being the head coach of the Falcons a premier position. He gets to call the shots for an NFL team and, in the process, prove himself worthy of the responsibility.
Particularly, Smith has to make the decision on whether to stick with quarterback Desmond Ridder or promote backup Taylor Heinicke. Either way, it will be a defining moment in his tenure and will shape the course of it and possibly the length of it. It would behoove him to get it right.
It may look easy from the outside. Tabbed the No. 1 quarterback in the offseason after four starts as a rookie, Ridder has shown flashes of brilliance, but has been inconsistent and excessively turnover-prone.
Meanwhile, Heinicke was effective Sunday in his lone appearance of the season. Subbing for Ridder, who showed concussion symptoms in the first half against the Titans, Heinicke led the Falcons to 20 second-half points in the 28-23 loss. The 20 points were the most that the Falcons have scored in any of their 16 halves this season, the other 15 directed by Ridder. If Smith were leaning toward Heinicke, the fact that Smith has legitimate concerns for Ridder’s well-being would seem to make it an even easier choice.
Smith saw that the offense seemed to respond to Heinicke. who played with poise, was decisive in the pocket, made accurate downfield throws and didn’t turn the ball over.
With 25 career starts, Heinicke has experience that Ridder (12 career starts) does not. It makes sense in a lot of ways.
However, the mustachioed one knows more about Ridder – and Heinicke, for that matter – and what his team needs than anyone. Smith has not forgotten what Ridder demonstrated in steering game-winning drives against the Packers, Texans and Buccaneers. He has seen Ridder learn from his many mistakes, make pinpoint passes and use his speed to pick up first downs or get into the end zone. Further, Smith knows the heights that Ridder – and the Falcons offense – can reach if he can be a better decision-maker and protect the ball. Smith’s confidence in Ridder is obvious.
“I’ve got to see if (Ridder starting) is the best thing this week,” Smith said at his weekly Monday news conference. “Obviously, (his play) is not something I’m concerned about long-term; he’s done a lot of good things. But we have to go find a way to win this game.”
Likewise, he knows what Heinicke can or can’t do and to what degree Heinicke’s performance against the Titans reflects his ability.
Smith has a sense, too, of how a change – beneficial, detrimental or neutral – would affect the rest of the team, as well as Ridder.
And, as mentioned earlier, Ridder’s health is a consideration.
“There are just a lot of variables,” Smith said.
Sunday’s Heinicke-inspired boost was obvious. But what would Heinicke bring over the long term?
He started 24 games in 2021 and 2022 in Washington with a record of 12-11-1. In 2022, he was 5-3-1. He had a passer rating of 89.6, and the team averaged 20.3 points per game.
In his eight starts, Ridder is 4-4. His rating is 84.0, and the Falcons have averaged 17.3 points in those eight games (the average is slightly affected by Heinicke’s one half). Numbers don’t tell the whole story, but the difference isn’t dramatic, particularly if Ridder continues to improve with more experience.
The Falcons’ trade Monday for Philadelphia defensive lineman Kentavius Street to help fill the gap left by Grady Jarrett’s season-ending ACL tear was clear indication that the Falcons are driving for the playoffs and believe they can get there.
That is the perspective that Smith is taking for this decision: What will help the Falcons get to the playoffs?
Whatever the decision, it doesn’t have to be for the rest of the season. Smith could stick with Ridder for Sunday’s home game against Minnesota and switch to Heinicke if the situation doesn’t improve. Likewise, he can start Heinicke and give the “we want to give Desmond a chance to get healthy and watch from the sideline” talking point and then work Ridder back in when the timing is right.
But neither is ideal. It would be far preferable to make the right decision the first time. At 4-4, every game is important, particularly the ones at home against conference opponents, such as Sunday’s. And, for example, if Smith were to switch to Heinicke and then later reverse to Ridder, it would create additional instability the next time Ridder plays ineffectively. Likewise, if he stays with Ridder but doesn’t give a complete endorsement of his status as the No. 1, then the questions and uncertainty will surface with each loss. (Although, honestly, if Ridder falters again, the questions and uncertainty would happen regardless of what Smith said.)
And that’s why making the right decision now is so critical. Smith had to make the call last year on when to sit quarterback Marcus Mariota and give Ridder a chance. It was meaningful, but the stakes weren’t as high. There wasn’t an expectation to make the playoffs, and the switch was made to give Ridder experience and get a look at the future. There wasn’t an external onus on Smith for Ridder to help the Falcons win.
In this case, though, the wrong call has the potential to keep the Falcons out of the playoffs. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but would fall short of expectations and raise questions about the viability of the partnership of Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot, now in their third year of what they’ve called a three-year project.
The good news for the Falcons is that Smith appears to make his decisions with deliberation and perspective. He has been around long enough to have seen other head coaches handle the same decision. He doesn’t seem like someone whose ego would influence his thinking. Further, the two quarterbacks don’t seem the type to be disruptive, no matter how Smith rules. When asked Sunday if he felt he should be the starter, Heinicke responded, “Oh, no. I mean, this is Desmond’s team.”
Is it?
Smith promised to have his answer Wednesday. His dream job may not be depending on it, but it sure would help if he made the right call.
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