Georgia’s season through five games offers much to admire, starting with the spotless 5-0 record and the No. 1 ranking.
Tight end Brock Bowers should legitimately be in the conversation for the best player in the country. In his first road start, quarterback Carson Beck proved his worth Saturday in leading the Bulldogs to a second-half comeback against Auburn. Georgia has reached 5-0 despite a fistful of injuries and is now getting healthy. The defense may not be at the standard set by predecessors but remains a top-25 unit or better.
However, these qualities don’t necessarily describe a team bound for a third consecutive national championship or even the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs have won 22 consecutive games. It seems increasingly likely that the streak’s days are numbered and that their spot in the four-team playoff is anything but secure.
And that’s really OK.
The Bulldogs’ 27-20 win at Auburn revealed it again. The Tigers took a 10-0 lead, ran for 219 yards (the most allowed by Georgia since 2018) and were perhaps one play away from a titanic upset. The Georgia defense was either short on discipline, might or both in its inability to prevent Auburn from repeatedly outflanking the Bulldogs on runs to the perimeter.
It only added to the collection of warning flags that were gathered in the win over South Carolina on Sept. 16 in Athens, when Georgia trailed 14-3 at halftime before seizing the game in the second half to win 24-14.
Credit to the Bulldogs for having the poise and determination to secure wins in both games. But that’s typically not how teams bound for a national championship win games.
We’re working on a two-game sample, but the average score in UGA’s two games against power-conference opponents is 25.5-17. In the past five years, the 10 title-game teams all averaged at least 35.9 points per game against power-conference opponents, according to cfbstats. Nine of the 10 had a double-digit average margin of victory against power-conference teams and seven won by an average of three touchdowns or more.
Aside from being reflective of dominance, it also meant those teams weren’t playing many games where they were in danger of being upset. Those games invariably happen, such as Georgia’s close call at Missouri last season, but teams that advance to the CFP championship typically minimize them.
Georgia has shown its mettle in putting together second-half comebacks against South Carolina and Auburn. But, as methods of winning go, it’s not terribly reliable.
Also, the run game has not revealed itself to be championship-level. In their two SEC games, the Bulldogs have one run play that has gained at least 20 yards, and that was a 21-yard run (running back Daijun Edwards, against South Carolina). Last year’s offense had 21 runs of 20-plus yards and seven of 30 or more in nine SEC games, according to cfbstats.
Coach Kirby Smart has made a priority of collecting more explosive plays than the opposition, as the team’s data supports the conclusion that such an advantage factors heavily into winning. Especially given that emphasis, the explosive-run shortage is concerning.
Consider this, also: Aside from Bowers and possibly safety Malaki Starks, it’s hard to say any other Bulldogs are playing at an All-American level. Generally, championships require dominant players to make game-deciding plays, as Bowers did repeatedly against Auburn. He’ll continue to be the best player on the field in perhaps every game the Bulldogs play this season. But he doesn’t play a position where he can consistently be that influential.
And, as noted previously, the Bulldogs have scored 17 points in their five first quarters, including three in the two SEC games. Whatever the issues are that have led to this predicament, it’s simply an inefficient use of possessions given their demonstrated ability to score later on in games.
It’s conceivable that Georgia’s gears will start to crank more efficiently in the second half of the season. But it’s not like South Carolina and Auburn were the two Goliaths on the schedule that the Bulldogs just needed to get past. No. 20 Kentucky, which ran for 329 yards (280 from running back Ray Davis) in smashing Florida 33-14 and visits Sanford Stadium Saturday, appears far more formidable than either Auburn or South Carolina.
There’s also Florida — the last team to beat Georgia in the regular season, in 2020 — in Jacksonville and later tests against No. 21 Missouri, No. 16 Ole Miss and No. 22 Tennessee (along with Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech).
Obviously, losing two regular-season games would put the Bulldogs out of the CFP running. But even losing one game in the regular season would invite jeopardy into the house of Kirby.
First, if Georgia loses one game but still manages to win the SEC East, the Bulldogs would go into the SEC title game needing to win to advance into the CFP.
However, it’s entirely possible that the Bulldogs could lose the wrong one and be locked out of the conference title game. And then they’d be subject to trying to win a beauty contest in front of the CFP selection committee. At this point, that doesn’t necessarily look like a competition the Bulldogs would be favored to win. Monday, ESPN’s algorithms gave Georgia a 30% chance of making the playoff.
If Georgia doesn’t win a third title in a row or even get into the CFP, it presumably won’t be for a lack of effort. Sometimes, it just doesn’t happen. So many pieces have to fall in place to result in a championship, and Georgia fans should be as aware as any of how often that doesn’t happen.
Had Ohio State kicker Noah Ruggles not hooked his attempt at a game-winning field-goal try at the end of the Peach Bowl — you may forget he stroked a nearly identical kick through the uprights minutes before — Georgia would not have repeated last year. And had J.T. Daniels not missed the UAB game in 2021 with an oblique injury, opening the door for Stetson Bennett, Georgia might not have even won a first title.
Smart is not deluding himself. After the game Saturday, he praised his team’s resilience and leadership, but acknowledged the obvious flaws.
“We aren’t going to get to where we want to go if we don’t get better, and that is the biggest thing,” he said.
For Georgia, it had better be soon.
SATURDAY’S GAME
Georgia vs. Kentucky, 7 p.m., ESPN, 750, 1380, 95.5
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