These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.
The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.
Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.
The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.
The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.
Sep 23
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
70.73 | AAAA | Cedartown | 80.3% | 28-16 | 12 | Calhoun | AAAAA |
57.75 | AAAAA | Whitewater | 71.1% | 26-18 | 8 | Northside (Columbus) | AAAAA |
41.79 | AAAA | Hardaway | 84.8% | 28-14 | 14 | Spencer | AAAA |
41.04 | AAAAA | Griffin | 95.1% | 35-7 | 28 | McIntosh | AAAAA |
39.63 | AAAA | Troup | 93.5% | 35-14 | 21 | Columbus | AAAA |
29.42 | AA | Temple | 78.5% | 21-12 | 9 | B.E.S.T. Academy | A Public |
24.77 | AAAA | Perry | 99.8% | 42-0 | 42 | Rutland | AAAA |
0.31 | A Public | Pataula Charter | 93.6% | 31-7 | 24 | Georgia Christian | GISA AA |
Sep 24
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
88.22 | AAAAAAA | Mill Creek | 89.9% | 26-2 | 24 | Grayson | AAAAAAA |
84.66 | AAAAAAA | Collins Hill | 87.8% | 27-7 | 20 | East Coweta | AAAAAAA |
84.18 | AAAAAAA | Colquitt County | 71.1% | 24-16 | 8 | Northside (Warner Robins) | AAAAAA |
82.91 | AAAAAAA | North Cobb | 71.3% | 28-21 | 7 | North Gwinnett | AAAAAAA |
82.71 | AAAAA | Warner Robins | 92.9% | 35-14 | 21 | Lee County | AAAAAA |
82.31 | AAAAAAA | Roswell | 89.6% | 35-20 | 15 | Walton | AAAAAAA |
79.70 | AAAAAAA | Marietta | 79.6% | 31-20 | 11 | Brookwood | AAAAAAA |
79.36 | AAAAA | Ware County | 73.5% | 32-23 | 9 | Benedictine | AAAA |
76.72 | AAAAA | Coffee | 78.9% | 28-17 | 11 | Camden County | AAAAAAA |
75.92 | AAAAAAA | Milton | 54.6% | 21-20 | 1 | McEachern | AAAAAAA |
75.18 | AAAAAA | Carrollton | 91.7% | 35-14 | 21 | Rome | AAAAAA |
75.14 | AAAAAA | Valdosta | 62.0% | 28-24 | 4 | Lowndes | AAAAAAA |
74.81 | AA | Fitzgerald | 65.4% | 17-12 | 5 | Pierce County | AAA |
74.74 | AAAA | Marist | 57.2% | 21-20 | 1 | Harrison | AAAAAAA |
74.31 | AAAA | Jefferson | 79.2% | 27-14 | 13 | Flowery Branch | AAAA |
69.65 | A Public | Brooks County | 58.9% | 24-21 | 3 | Irwin County | A Public |
69.40 | AAAAAA | Douglas County | 68.5% | 21-14 | 7 | Alexander | AAAAAA |
67.36 | AA | Dodge County | 63.6% | 22-19 | 3 | Bleckley County | AA |
64.92 | AAAAAAA | Newton | 95.1% | 34-6 | 28 | Houston County | AAAAAA |
63.41 | AAAAAA | Johns Creek | 92.7% | 28-6 | 22 | Riverwood | AAAAAA |
62.59 | AAAAAA | Brunswick | 91.6% | 28-7 | 21 | Glynn Academy | AAAAAA |
62.24 | AAA | Oconee County | 91.3% | 28-7 | 21 | Veterans | AAAAA |
61.51 | AA | Callaway | 83.4% | 21-7 | 14 | Thomas County Central | AAAA |
60.52 | AAAAAAA | Gainesville | 87.3% | 30-14 | 16 | Hillgrove | AAAAAAA |
60.45 | AAA | Cedar Grove | 92.4% | 29-7 | 22 | Carver (Atlanta) | AAA |
60.43 | AAAA | North Oconee | 61.1% | 23-20 | 3 | Madison County | AAAA |
60.36 | AAAAAAA | Pebblebrook | 75.5% | 21-13 | 8 | North Atlanta | AAAAAA |
59.33 | AAAA | West Laurens | 60.2% | 21-18 | 3 | Spalding | AAAA |
58.67 | AAAAAA | Dacula | 58.3% | 20-17 | 3 | Lanier | AAAAAA |
57.92 | AAAAAA | Westlake | 98.4% | 35-0 | 35 | Shiloh | AAAAAA |
57.51 | A Public | Clinch County | 62.0% | 21-19 | 2 | Charlton County | A Public |
56.72 | AAAAA | Lithia Springs | 55.7% | 21-21 | 0 | New Manchester | AAAAA |
55.90 | AAAAAA | Habersham Central | 62.8% | 22-19 | 3 | Winder-Barrow | AAAAAA |
55.75 | AAAAAA | South Paulding | 86.5% | 36-21 | 15 | Dalton | AAAAAA |
55.42 | AAA | Westminster (Atlanta) | 67.3% | 21-14 | 7 | Greater Atlanta Christian | AAA |
54.78 | AAAAA | Woodward Academy | 95.3% | 30-0 | 30 | Banneker | AAAAA |
54.21 | AAAAAA | Effingham County | 63.0% | 23-20 | 3 | South Effingham | AAAAAA |
54.14 | AA | Washington County | 79.5% | 27-14 | 13 | Lamar County | AA |
53.98 | AAAAA | Starr's Mill | 62.4% | 21-16 | 5 | Harris County | AAAAA |
53.26 | A Private | Aquinas | 70.0% | 21-14 | 7 | Tattnall Square | A Private |
52.87 | AAAAA | Stockbridge | 66.0% | 19-13 | 6 | Vidalia | AA |
52.77 | AAAAAAA | Tift County | 95.4% | 29-0 | 29 | Worth County | AA |
52.65 | AAA | Sonoraville | 54.1% | 25-23 | 2 | North Murray | AAA |
52.39 | AAA | Crisp County | 79.7% | 24-13 | 11 | Upson-Lee | AAA |
51.91 | AA | Putnam County | 61.0% | 21-17 | 4 | Laney | AA |
51.54 | AAA | White County | 64.1% | 21-14 | 7 | Dawson County | AAA |
51.40 | AA | Heard County | 69.4% | 20-13 | 7 | Central (Carrollton) | AAAA |
51.39 | AAAA | Stephenson | 78.9% | 20-6 | 14 | Arabia Mountain | AAAA |
50.65 | AAAAAA | Buford | 99.5% | 36-0 | 36 | Central Gwinnett | AAAAAA |
50.04 | A Private | Stratford Academy | 70.6% | 21-14 | 7 | Savannah Country Day | A Private |
49.80 | A Public | Bowdon | 62.2% | 22-20 | 2 | Trion | A Public |
49.55 | AAAAAAA | Campbell | 80.4% | 21-8 | 13 | Peachtree Ridge | AAAAAAA |
49.50 | AAAA | Hapeville Charter | 74.5% | 28-20 | 8 | Mays | AAAA |
49.49 | AAAAAA | Kennesaw Mountain | 96.8% | 34-0 | 34 | Lassiter | AAAAAA |
49.18 | AA | South Atlanta | 66.3% | 26-20 | 6 | Pace Academy | AA |
48.67 | A Public | Wilcox County | 75.0% | 24-14 | 10 | Montgomery County | A Public |
48.53 | AAAAA | Southwest DeKalb | 63.2% | 19-14 | 5 | Lithonia | AAAAA |
48.52 | AA | Elbert County | 52.3% | 22-21 | 1 | Lincoln County | A Public |
48.43 | AAA | Appling County | 99.2% | 37-0 | 37 | Wayne County | AAAAA |
47.38 | A Private | Darlington | 86.2% | 28-12 | 16 | King's Ridge Christian | A Private |
46.76 | AAA | Jackson | 54.8% | 25-23 | 2 | Pike County | AAA |
46.65 | A Private | Athens Academy | 81.5% | 29-17 | 12 | Hebron Christian | A Private |
46.45 | AAAAA | Clarke Central | 93.3% | 28-0 | 28 | Jackson County | AAAAA |
45.87 | AAAAAAA | Norcross | 96.5% | 28-0 | 28 | Meadowcreek | AAAAAAA |
44.80 | AAAAA | Eastside | 92.2% | 27-0 | 27 | Apalachee | AAAAA |
44.73 | AAAA | Baldwin | 91.8% | 32-13 | 19 | Westside (Macon) | AAAA |
44.65 | A Private | St. Anne-Pacelli | 78.1% | 21-7 | 14 | Landmark Christian | A Private |
43.53 | AAAAAAA | Parkview | 97.6% | 36-0 | 36 | Tucker | AAAAAA |
43.37 | AA | Berrien | 59.4% | 20-14 | 6 | Tattnall County | AAA |
42.96 | AAAAAA | Alcovy | 61.2% | 25-21 | 4 | Rockdale County | AAAAAA |
42.60 | AAA | Mary Persons | 77.4% | 26-14 | 12 | Central (Macon) | AAA |
42.48 | AAA | Monroe Area | 95.8% | 28-0 | 28 | Lakeside (Evans) | AAAAAA |
42.33 | AAA | Harlem | 55.1% | 20-17 | 3 | Richmond Academy | AAA |
42.09 | AAAAA | Walnut Grove | 68.0% | 25-20 | 5 | Greenbrier | AAAAA |
42.01 | AAAAAA | Allatoona | 96.4% | 28-0 | 28 | Wheeler | AAAAAA |
41.96 | GISA AAA | John Milledge Academy | 97.1% | 30-0 | 30 | Gatewood School | GISA AA |
41.88 | A Private | Whitefield Academy | 93.9% | 30-6 | 24 | Brookstone | A Private |
41.82 | AAAAAA | Chattahoochee | 62.4% | 20-14 | 6 | Centennial | AAAAAA |
41.09 | AAA | Cherokee Bluff | 88.8% | 32-14 | 18 | Gilmer | AAA |
40.84 | A Public | Dublin | 84.1% | 27-12 | 15 | Dooly County | A Public |
40.78 | AA | Cook | 90.0% | 28-8 | 20 | Brantley County | AAA |
40.62 | GISA AAA | Pinewood Christian | 61.3% | 26-21 | 5 | Tiftarea Academy | GISA AAA |
40.56 | A Public | Schley County | 95.8% | 31-0 | 31 | Greenville | A Public |
40.05 | AAA | Adairsville | 87.5% | 28-14 | 14 | LaFayette | AAA |
39.83 | AAAAAA | Kell | 94.7% | 34-7 | 27 | South Cobb | AAAAAA |
39.78 | AAAAA | Decatur | 97.0% | 35-0 | 35 | Stone Mountain | AAAAA |
39.71 | A Public | Commerce | 66.7% | 21-16 | 5 | Mount Paran Christian | A Private |
39.11 | A Private | Savannah Christian | 80.7% | 27-14 | 13 | Mount de Sales | A Private |
39.01 | AAA | Peach County | 98.1% | 35-0 | 35 | Sumter County | AAA |
38.83 | AAAAAAA | Archer | 99.1% | 37-0 | 37 | Dunwoody | AAAAAAA |
38.41 | AAA | Liberty County | 62.9% | 17-13 | 4 | Johnson (Savannah) | AAA |
37.85 | AAA | North Hall | 92.4% | 28-0 | 28 | West Hall | AAA |
36.88 | AAA | Thomson | 98.0% | 35-0 | 35 | Morgan County | AAA |
35.24 | A Public | Turner County | 87.2% | 32-15 | 17 | Atkinson County | A Public |
35.18 | AA | Model | 58.6% | 19-14 | 5 | Chattooga | AA |
34.22 | GISA AA | Terrell Academy | 82.8% | 28-14 | 14 | Brookwood School | GISA AAA |
34.05 | AAAA | LaGrange | 96.4% | 31-0 | 31 | Shaw | AAAA |
33.38 | A Public | Chattahoochee County | 91.8% | 24-0 | 24 | Marion County | A Public |
33.09 | AAAAAA | Richmond Hill | 97.1% | 34-0 | 34 | Bradwell Institute | AAAAAA |
32.96 | A Private | Christian Heritage | 81.7% | 30-19 | 11 | Mount Pisgah Christian | A Private |
32.93 | AA | Pepperell | 83.7% | 28-14 | 14 | Dade County | AA |
32.82 | A Public | Metter | 98.6% | 37-0 | 37 | Jenkins County | A Public |
32.76 | A Private | Holy Innocents | 90.6% | 33-14 | 19 | Athens Christian | A Private |
32.27 | AAAA | Islands | 86.1% | 27-12 | 15 | Beach | AAA |
32.09 | GAPPS AA | Central Fellowship Christian | 69.9% | 21-14 | 7 | Thomas Jefferson | GISA AA |
32.02 | AAAAA | Creekside | 100.0% | 44-0 | 44 | Tri-Cities | AAAAA |
31.96 | AAA | Sandy Creek | 99.4% | 42-0 | 42 | Douglass | AAA |
31.38 | GISA AAA | Bethlehem Christian Academy | 80.3% | 28-14 | 14 | Towns County | A Public |
31.10 | AAAAA | Chapel Hill | 83.0% | 24-12 | 12 | North Springs | AAAAA |
29.69 | A Public | Wheeler County | 74.7% | 21-13 | 8 | Hawkinsville | A Public |
29.40 | GISA AAA | Frederica Academy | 53.6% | 21-21 | 0 | Long County | AAA |
29.25 | AAA | Burke County | 98.6% | 35-0 | 35 | Cross Creek | AAA |
28.97 | A Private | Mount Vernon Presbyterian | 95.3% | 31-0 | 31 | George Walton Academy | A Private |
28.57 | A Public | Terrell County | 81.9% | 20-0 | 20 | Randolph-Clay | A Public |
28.51 | A Public | Mount Zion (Carroll) | 77.7% | 29-20 | 9 | Heritage (Newnan) | A Private |
27.98 | AA | Haralson County | 97.0% | 31-0 | 31 | Banks County | AA |
27.82 | AAAAAA | Sprayberry | 98.3% | 33-0 | 33 | Osborne | AAAAAA |
27.54 | AA | Columbia | 96.9% | 31-0 | 31 | Towers | AA |
27.41 | A Public | Washington-Wilkes | 96.1% | 34-0 | 34 | Hancock Central | A Public |
27.26 | A Private | Calvary Day | 99.3% | 41-0 | 41 | Strong Rock Christian | A Private |
26.53 | AAAAA | St. Pius X | 99.6% | 40-0 | 40 | Northview | AAAAA |
25.60 | A Public | McIntosh County Academy | 95.4% | 28-0 | 28 | Claxton | A Public |
25.23 | AAA | Ringgold | 98.3% | 37-0 | 37 | Murray County | AAA |
24.81 | AAA | Salem | 96.9% | 28-0 | 28 | Redan | AAA |
21.57 | GISA AA | Brentwood School | 96.4% | 40-14 | 26 | Trinity Christian (Dublin) | GISA AAA |
21.49 | AA | Southwest | 63.7% | 21-18 | 3 | Jasper County | AA |
20.75 | AAAA | Cedar Shoals | 97.4% | 40-7 | 33 | East Hall | AAAA |
20.65 | A Public | Mitchell County | 97.8% | 33-0 | 33 | Miller County | A Public |
20.59 | A Private | Wesleyan | 98.7% | 30-0 | 30 | Loganville Christian | A Private |
20.51 | A Public | Screven County | 89.5% | 28-12 | 16 | Bryan County | A Public |
20.47 | A Public | Gordon Lee | 73.9% | 26-16 | 10 | Southeast Whitfield | AAAA |
19.61 | GISA AAA | Southland Academy | 77.6% | 16-0 | 16 | Edmund Burke Academy | GISA AA |
19.36 | AA | Westside (Augusta) | 94.4% | 27-0 | 27 | Glenn Hills | AA |
17.44 | A Public | Telfair County | 94.7% | 31-6 | 25 | Treutlen | A Public |
16.88 | AAAAA | Jonesboro | 99.6% | 40-0 | 40 | Mount Zion (Jonesboro) | AAAA |
16.66 | AAA | Coahulla Creek | 96.9% | 34-0 | 34 | Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe | AAA |
16.21 | A Private | Fellowship Christian | 99.6% | 42-0 | 42 | St. Francis | A Private |
15.79 | A Public | Warren County | 93.8% | 31-7 | 24 | Crawford County | A Public |
15.16 | AA | Jefferson County | 99.1% | 36-0 | 36 | Josey | AA |
14.72 | AAAA | Riverdale | 99.7% | 37-0 | 37 | North Clayton | AAAA |
14.39 | AAAA | Kendrick | 66.2% | 21-14 | 7 | Jordan | AAAA |
14.33 | A Public | Georgia Military College | 94.7% | 34-7 | 27 | Twiggs County | A Public |
11.00 | AA | Bremen | 99.4% | 42-0 | 42 | Clarkston | AAAAA |
9.90 | AAAAA | Loganville | 99.5% | 42-0 | 42 | Johnson (Gainesville) | AAAAA |
9.66 | GISA AAA | St. Andrew's School | 81.8% | 24-12 | 12 | Memorial Day | GISA AA |
9.47 | GISA AA | Augusta Prep | 89.4% | 34-14 | 20 | John Hancock Academy | GISA AA |
9.13 | GAPPS A | Flint River Academy | 59.7% | 21-17 | 4 | Cross Keys | AAAAA |
8.91 | AA | Toombs County | 99.3% | 36-0 | 36 | Riverside Military Academy | AA |
7.82 | A Public | Emanuel County Institute | 99.6% | 40-0 | 40 | Portal | A Public |
5.43 | GAPPS AA | Skipstone Academy | 87.7% | 26-7 | 19 | Central Christian | GAPPS A |
4.53 | A Public | Wilkinson County | 95.7% | 31-0 | 31 | ACE Charter | A Public |
3.04 | AA | Fannin County | 99.5% | 42-0 | 42 | Gordon Central | AA |
2.98 | AA | Oglethorpe County | 93.1% | 30-7 | 23 | Butler | AA |
2.93 | GISA AA | Southwest Georgia Academy | 97.9% | 37-0 | 37 | Robert Toombs Academy | GISA AA |
2.85 | AAAAAAA | Duluth | 98.6% | 35-0 | 35 | Berkmar | AAAAAAA |
2.25 | AA | East Laurens | 99.0% | 39-0 | 39 | Baconton Charter | A Public |
0.41 | AAAA | New Hampstead | 100.0% | 49-0 | 49 | Groves | AAA |
-3.67 | AAAA | Miller Grove | 99.9% | 48-0 | 48 | Druid Hills | AAAA |
-3.82 | GISA AA | Piedmont Academy | 97.0% | 38-7 | 31 | Lake Oconee Academy | A Public |
-5.43 | GAPPS A | Harvester Christian | 97.6% | 27-0 | 27 | Fullington Academy | GISA AA |
-6.58 | GISA AA | Briarwood Academy | 99.5% | 41-0 | 41 | Glascock County | A Public |
Sep 25
Favorite | Underdog | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rating | Class | Team | Pct | Median Scores | Median Margin | Team | Class |
14.58 | AAAA | Jenkins | 93.1% | 26-0 | 26 | Savannah | AAA |
10.73 | AA | KIPP Atlanta Collegiate | 65.9% | 23-19 | 4 | McNair | AA |
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