Maxwell Week 6 projections

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Sep 23

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
70.73AAAACedartown80.3%28-1612CalhounAAAAA
57.75AAAAAWhitewater71.1%26-188Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
41.79AAAAHardaway84.8%28-1414SpencerAAAA
41.04AAAAAGriffin95.1%35-728McIntoshAAAAA
39.63AAAATroup93.5%35-1421ColumbusAAAA
29.42AATemple78.5%21-129B.E.S.T. AcademyA Public
24.77AAAAPerry99.8%42-042RutlandAAAA
0.31A PublicPataula Charter93.6%31-724Georgia ChristianGISA AA

Sep 24

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
88.22AAAAAAAMill Creek89.9%26-224GraysonAAAAAAA
84.66AAAAAAACollins Hill87.8%27-720East CowetaAAAAAAA
84.18AAAAAAAColquitt County71.1%24-168Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
82.91AAAAAAANorth Cobb71.3%28-217North GwinnettAAAAAAA
82.71AAAAAWarner Robins92.9%35-1421Lee CountyAAAAAA
82.31AAAAAAARoswell89.6%35-2015WaltonAAAAAAA
79.70AAAAAAAMarietta79.6%31-2011BrookwoodAAAAAAA
79.36AAAAAWare County73.5%32-239BenedictineAAAA
76.72AAAAACoffee78.9%28-1711Camden CountyAAAAAAA
75.92AAAAAAAMilton54.6%21-201McEachernAAAAAAA
75.18AAAAAACarrollton91.7%35-1421RomeAAAAAA
75.14AAAAAAValdosta62.0%28-244LowndesAAAAAAA
74.81AAFitzgerald65.4%17-125Pierce CountyAAA
74.74AAAAMarist57.2%21-201HarrisonAAAAAAA
74.31AAAAJefferson79.2%27-1413Flowery BranchAAAA
69.65A PublicBrooks County58.9%24-213Irwin CountyA Public
69.40AAAAAADouglas County68.5%21-147AlexanderAAAAAA
67.36AADodge County63.6%22-193Bleckley CountyAA
64.92AAAAAAANewton95.1%34-628Houston CountyAAAAAA
63.41AAAAAAJohns Creek92.7%28-622RiverwoodAAAAAA
62.59AAAAAABrunswick91.6%28-721Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
62.24AAAOconee County91.3%28-721VeteransAAAAA
61.51AACallaway83.4%21-714Thomas County CentralAAAA
60.52AAAAAAAGainesville87.3%30-1416HillgroveAAAAAAA
60.45AAACedar Grove92.4%29-722Carver (Atlanta)AAA
60.43AAAANorth Oconee61.1%23-203Madison CountyAAAA
60.36AAAAAAAPebblebrook75.5%21-138North AtlantaAAAAAA
59.33AAAAWest Laurens60.2%21-183SpaldingAAAA
58.67AAAAAADacula58.3%20-173LanierAAAAAA
57.92AAAAAAWestlake98.4%35-035ShilohAAAAAA
57.51A PublicClinch County62.0%21-192Charlton CountyA Public
56.72AAAAALithia Springs55.7%21-210New ManchesterAAAAA
55.90AAAAAAHabersham Central62.8%22-193Winder-BarrowAAAAAA
55.75AAAAAASouth Paulding86.5%36-2115DaltonAAAAAA
55.42AAAWestminster (Atlanta)67.3%21-147Greater Atlanta ChristianAAA
54.78AAAAAWoodward Academy95.3%30-030BannekerAAAAA
54.21AAAAAAEffingham County63.0%23-203South EffinghamAAAAAA
54.14AAWashington County79.5%27-1413Lamar CountyAA
53.98AAAAAStarr's Mill62.4%21-165Harris CountyAAAAA
53.26A PrivateAquinas70.0%21-147Tattnall SquareA Private
52.87AAAAAStockbridge66.0%19-136VidaliaAA
52.77AAAAAAATift County95.4%29-029Worth CountyAA
52.65AAASonoraville54.1%25-232North MurrayAAA
52.39AAACrisp County79.7%24-1311Upson-LeeAAA
51.91AAPutnam County61.0%21-174LaneyAA
51.54AAAWhite County64.1%21-147Dawson CountyAAA
51.40AAHeard County69.4%20-137Central (Carrollton)AAAA
51.39AAAAStephenson78.9%20-614Arabia MountainAAAA
50.65AAAAAABuford99.5%36-036Central GwinnettAAAAAA
50.04A PrivateStratford Academy70.6%21-147Savannah Country DayA Private
49.80A PublicBowdon62.2%22-202TrionA Public
49.55AAAAAAACampbell80.4%21-813Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
49.50AAAAHapeville Charter74.5%28-208MaysAAAA
49.49AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain96.8%34-034LassiterAAAAAA
49.18AASouth Atlanta66.3%26-206Pace AcademyAA
48.67A PublicWilcox County75.0%24-1410Montgomery CountyA Public
48.53AAAAASouthwest DeKalb63.2%19-145LithoniaAAAAA
48.52AAElbert County52.3%22-211Lincoln CountyA Public
48.43AAAAppling County99.2%37-037Wayne CountyAAAAA
47.38A PrivateDarlington86.2%28-1216King's Ridge ChristianA Private
46.76AAAJackson54.8%25-232Pike CountyAAA
46.65A PrivateAthens Academy81.5%29-1712Hebron ChristianA Private
46.45AAAAAClarke Central93.3%28-028Jackson CountyAAAAA
45.87AAAAAAANorcross96.5%28-028MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
44.80AAAAAEastside92.2%27-027ApalacheeAAAAA
44.73AAAABaldwin91.8%32-1319Westside (Macon)AAAA
44.65A PrivateSt. Anne-Pacelli78.1%21-714Landmark ChristianA Private
43.53AAAAAAAParkview97.6%36-036TuckerAAAAAA
43.37AABerrien59.4%20-146Tattnall CountyAAA
42.96AAAAAAAlcovy61.2%25-214Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
42.60AAAMary Persons77.4%26-1412Central (Macon)AAA
42.48AAAMonroe Area95.8%28-028Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
42.33AAAHarlem55.1%20-173Richmond AcademyAAA
42.09AAAAAWalnut Grove68.0%25-205GreenbrierAAAAA
42.01AAAAAAAllatoona96.4%28-028WheelerAAAAAA
41.96GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy97.1%30-030Gatewood SchoolGISA AA
41.88A PrivateWhitefield Academy93.9%30-624BrookstoneA Private
41.82AAAAAAChattahoochee62.4%20-146CentennialAAAAAA
41.09AAACherokee Bluff88.8%32-1418GilmerAAA
40.84A PublicDublin84.1%27-1215Dooly CountyA Public
40.78AACook90.0%28-820Brantley CountyAAA
40.62GISA AAAPinewood Christian61.3%26-215Tiftarea AcademyGISA AAA
40.56A PublicSchley County95.8%31-031GreenvilleA Public
40.05AAAAdairsville87.5%28-1414LaFayetteAAA
39.83AAAAAAKell94.7%34-727South CobbAAAAAA
39.78AAAAADecatur97.0%35-035Stone MountainAAAAA
39.71A PublicCommerce66.7%21-165Mount Paran ChristianA Private
39.11A PrivateSavannah Christian80.7%27-1413Mount de SalesA Private
39.01AAAPeach County98.1%35-035Sumter CountyAAA
38.83AAAAAAAArcher99.1%37-037DunwoodyAAAAAAA
38.41AAALiberty County62.9%17-134Johnson (Savannah)AAA
37.85AAANorth Hall92.4%28-028West HallAAA
36.88AAAThomson98.0%35-035Morgan CountyAAA
35.24A PublicTurner County87.2%32-1517Atkinson CountyA Public
35.18AAModel58.6%19-145ChattoogaAA
34.22GISA AATerrell Academy82.8%28-1414Brookwood SchoolGISA AAA
34.05AAAALaGrange96.4%31-031ShawAAAA
33.38A PublicChattahoochee County91.8%24-024Marion CountyA Public
33.09AAAAAARichmond Hill97.1%34-034Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
32.96A PrivateChristian Heritage81.7%30-1911Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
32.93AAPepperell83.7%28-1414Dade CountyAA
32.82A PublicMetter98.6%37-037Jenkins CountyA Public
32.76A PrivateHoly Innocents90.6%33-1419Athens ChristianA Private
32.27AAAAIslands86.1%27-1215BeachAAA
32.09GAPPS AACentral Fellowship Christian69.9%21-147Thomas JeffersonGISA AA
32.02AAAAACreekside100.0%44-044Tri-CitiesAAAAA
31.96AAASandy Creek99.4%42-042DouglassAAA
31.38GISA AAABethlehem Christian Academy80.3%28-1414Towns CountyA Public
31.10AAAAAChapel Hill83.0%24-1212North SpringsAAAAA
29.69A PublicWheeler County74.7%21-138HawkinsvilleA Public
29.40GISA AAAFrederica Academy53.6%21-210Long CountyAAA
29.25AAABurke County98.6%35-035Cross CreekAAA
28.97A PrivateMount Vernon Presbyterian95.3%31-031George Walton AcademyA Private
28.57A PublicTerrell County81.9%20-020Randolph-ClayA Public
28.51A PublicMount Zion (Carroll)77.7%29-209Heritage (Newnan)A Private
27.98AAHaralson County97.0%31-031Banks CountyAA
27.82AAAAAASprayberry98.3%33-033OsborneAAAAAA
27.54AAColumbia96.9%31-031TowersAA
27.41A PublicWashington-Wilkes96.1%34-034Hancock CentralA Public
27.26A PrivateCalvary Day99.3%41-041Strong Rock ChristianA Private
26.53AAAAASt. Pius X99.6%40-040NorthviewAAAAA
25.60A PublicMcIntosh County Academy95.4%28-028ClaxtonA Public
25.23AAARinggold98.3%37-037Murray CountyAAA
24.81AAASalem96.9%28-028RedanAAA
21.57GISA AABrentwood School96.4%40-1426Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
21.49AASouthwest63.7%21-183Jasper CountyAA
20.75AAAACedar Shoals97.4%40-733East HallAAAA
20.65A PublicMitchell County97.8%33-033Miller CountyA Public
20.59A PrivateWesleyan98.7%30-030Loganville ChristianA Private
20.51A PublicScreven County89.5%28-1216Bryan CountyA Public
20.47A PublicGordon Lee73.9%26-1610Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
19.61GISA AAASouthland Academy77.6%16-016Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
19.36AAWestside (Augusta)94.4%27-027Glenn HillsAA
17.44A PublicTelfair County94.7%31-625TreutlenA Public
16.88AAAAAJonesboro99.6%40-040Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
16.66AAACoahulla Creek96.9%34-034Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
16.21A PrivateFellowship Christian99.6%42-042St. FrancisA Private
15.79A PublicWarren County93.8%31-724Crawford CountyA Public
15.16AAJefferson County99.1%36-036JoseyAA
14.72AAAARiverdale99.7%37-037North ClaytonAAAA
14.39AAAAKendrick66.2%21-147JordanAAAA
14.33A PublicGeorgia Military College94.7%34-727Twiggs CountyA Public
11.00AABremen99.4%42-042ClarkstonAAAAA
9.90AAAAALoganville99.5%42-042Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
9.66GISA AAASt. Andrew's School81.8%24-1212Memorial DayGISA AA
9.47GISA AAAugusta Prep89.4%34-1420John Hancock AcademyGISA AA
9.13GAPPS AFlint River Academy59.7%21-174Cross KeysAAAAA
8.91AAToombs County99.3%36-036Riverside Military AcademyAA
7.82A PublicEmanuel County Institute99.6%40-040PortalA Public
5.43GAPPS AASkipstone Academy87.7%26-719Central ChristianGAPPS A
4.53A PublicWilkinson County95.7%31-031ACE CharterA Public
3.04AAFannin County99.5%42-042Gordon CentralAA
2.98AAOglethorpe County93.1%30-723ButlerAA
2.93GISA AASouthwest Georgia Academy97.9%37-037Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA
2.85AAAAAAADuluth98.6%35-035BerkmarAAAAAAA
2.25AAEast Laurens99.0%39-039Baconton CharterA Public
0.41AAAANew Hampstead100.0%49-049GrovesAAA
-3.67AAAAMiller Grove99.9%48-048Druid HillsAAAA
-3.82GISA AAPiedmont Academy97.0%38-731Lake Oconee AcademyA Public
-5.43GAPPS AHarvester Christian97.6%27-027Fullington AcademyGISA AA
-6.58GISA AABriarwood Academy99.5%41-041Glascock CountyA Public

Sep 25

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
14.58AAAAJenkins93.1%26-026SavannahAAA
10.73AAKIPP Atlanta Collegiate65.9%23-194McNairAA