Maxwell Week 10 projections

Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)
Caption
Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Oct 21

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
43.37AAAAAAPope91.5%34-1420SprayberryAAAAAA
32.52AAAAAWoodward Academy99.7%40-040Forest ParkAAAAA
29.17A PublicTrion78.5%24-1410ArmucheeA Public
28.42AAAACarver (Columbus)99.5%45-045ColumbusAAAA
24.29AAAAAATucker91.7%31-823MorrowAAAAAA
19.29AAASoutheast Bulloch95.0%31-031BeachAAA
18.04AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)96.4%34-034Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
4.33AAAAFayette County99.6%41-041Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
-13.35AAALiberty County99.9%42-042GrovesAAA

Oct 22

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
80.20AAAAAAABrookwood58.7%21-201GraysonAAAAAAA
79.19AAAAAAAColquitt County62.5%28-235LowndesAAAAAAA
79.18AAAAAAARoswell55.1%27-243MiltonAAAAAAA
78.66AAAAAACambridge63.7%25-205RiverwoodAAAAAA
74.72AAAAAALee County78.9%22-1012Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
74.35AAAAAAAWalton68.9%30-246North PauldingAAAAAAA
73.91AAAAAAAMill Creek93.4%30-624NewtonAAAAAAA
73.36AAAAAAAMarietta60.9%26-215HarrisonAAAAAAA
71.15AAAAAAASouth Forsyth70.1%20-137DenmarkAAAAAAA
71.00AAThomasville65.7%21-147FitzgeraldAA
70.49AAAOconee County83.1%27-1314Monroe AreaAAA
69.28AAAAAAHughes85.2%22-616LovejoyAAAAAA
68.15AAAAAAValdosta56.2%21-192Houston CountyAAAAAA
67.58AAAABaldwin55.7%24-222SpaldingAAAA
67.03AAAAAAACamden County62.0%20-155Tift CountyAAAAAAA
65.75AAAAAAAWest Forsyth67.2%27-216GainesvilleAAAAAAA
64.90AAAAAWhitewater61.4%21-183Starr's MillAAAAA
64.03AABleckley County64.1%27-216Washington CountyAA
62.91AANortheast56.5%14-140Dodge CountyAA
62.76AAAAAAAParkview59.4%23-203South GwinnettAAAAAAA
62.35AAAAAAACollins Hill99.4%38-038Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
61.99AAAHart County56.4%26-233Stephens CountyAAA
61.98AAAAAAACherokee66.0%25-205AlpharettaAAAAAAA
61.60AAAAThomas County Central66.1%20-146CairoAAAA
61.56AAAABenedictine99.3%52-2032New HampsteadAAAA
61.12AAJeff Davis60.0%15-132SwainsboroAA
60.87A PublicSchley County60.2%24-213Chattahoochee CountyA Public
60.34AAAAAARome92.9%29-623AlexanderAAAAAA
59.22AAAAAAAPebblebrook93.0%36-1422NewnanAAAAAAA
58.60AAAAAASequoyah53.5%23-212River RidgeAAAAAA
58.19AAASandy Creek89.9%29-1019Carver (Atlanta)AAA
57.60AAAAAADacula70.1%21-147ShilohAAAAAA
57.28AAAAAAAllatoona71.5%22-148KellAAAAAA
56.57AAARockmart83.0%26-1214AdairsvilleAAA
56.11AAAAAARichmond Hill54.1%21-210Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
55.99AAAAACoffee95.8%34-628VeteransAAAAA
54.27AAAAAABuford99.7%42-042LanierAAAAAA
52.96A PublicBrooks County83.6%30-1614Clinch CountyA Public
51.40AAAANorth Oconee92.0%31-823Cedar ShoalsAAAA
51.27A PublicIrwin County81.8%27-1413Charlton CountyA Public
51.23AAAAAAANorth Cobb99.6%43-043HillgroveAAAAAAA
51.16A PublicMacon County93.2%31-724ManchesterA Public
50.83AAAAAJones County90.0%35-1718Eagle's LandingAAAAA
50.59AAAAAAAEast Coweta94.5%33-627CampbellAAAAAAA
50.27AAAAFlowery Branch88.2%28-820Madison CountyAAAA
50.12A PrivateStratford Academy63.4%20-146Tattnall SquareA Private
50.08A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)98.2%40-040BrookstoneA Private
49.35AAAAAOla63.2%21-165StockbridgeAAAAA
49.28AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett96.6%31-031Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
49.20AAACherokee Bluff77.1%28-199Dawson CountyAAA
49.06AAAAAADouglas County90.5%36-1917DaltonAAAAAA
49.02AAAAMarist96.9%34-034StephensonAAAA
48.78AAHaralson County79.4%26-1412Heard CountyAA
48.68AAAAACalhoun97.8%40-634CassAAAAA
48.40AAAAADutchtown88.5%22-022Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAAA
48.17AAPutnam County67.5%21-147Jefferson CountyAA
47.77AAAAAAJohns Creek97.6%36-036CentennialAAAAAA
47.74AAAPeach County84.3%28-1414JacksonAAA
47.62AAACedar Grove94.5%34-727Westminster (Atlanta)AAA
47.60AAAAMays76.8%28-208Miller GroveAAAA
46.76AACook61.8%26-215Early CountyAA
46.68AARabun County97.8%40-634Elbert CountyAA
46.63AAAMary Persons57.6%26-224Upson-LeeAAA
46.17AAAAAEastside70.0%21-147Jackson CountyAAAAA
46.04AABerrien50.6%20-200Worth CountyAA
45.56AAAAAACarrollton98.9%41-041East PauldingAAAAAA
45.07AAAAHapeville Charter78.4%18-018Arabia MountainAAAA
45.02AAAAACreekside99.2%40-040Mundy's MillAAAAA
44.80AAAAAClarke Central87.1%30-1416LoganvilleAAAAA
44.73AAColumbia61.0%21-174LovettAA
44.31AAAThomson97.2%31-031HarlemAAA
44.14AAAABainbridge96.6%36-729WestoverAAAA
43.83AAAAAAAlcovy63.3%26-215Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
43.79AAASonoraville71.7%21-147LaFayetteAAA
43.76AAAAAASouth Paulding96.2%35-629Paulding CountyAAAAAA
43.12A PublicWashington-Wilkes74.0%28-217Lincoln CountyA Public
42.63A PrivateDarlington77.1%22-139North Cobb ChristianA Private
41.74AAAAAAWestlake98.9%41-041North AtlantaAAAAAA
41.74AAToombs County62.1%23-203VidaliaAA
41.66AAARinggold92.3%34-1222Coahulla CreekAAA
41.54A PrivateSavannah Christian69.1%22-166AquinasA Private
41.31AAAAAAStatesboro89.7%32-1418South EffinghamAAAAAA
41.25AAAAJefferson99.5%41-041ChestateeAAAA
41.08AAAAAAALambert96.4%35-332Forsyth CentralAAAAAAA
41.07AAAAAHarris County79.7%29-1910Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
40.77AAAARiverdale98.4%31-031HamptonAAAA
40.63AAAAPerry98.5%37-037Westside (Macon)AAAA
40.15AAAGreater Atlanta Christian69.8%22-157SalemAAA
39.40AAAAAAHabersham Central64.8%21-174Central GwinnettAAAAAA
39.14AAFannin County70.9%27-207ChattoogaAA
39.13AAAADougherty94.3%35-926MonroeAAAA
38.52AAAAAAAEtowah86.1%22-616WoodstockAAAAAAA
37.91A PrivateWhitefield Academy86.6%26-719Landmark ChristianA Private
37.69AAAAAWarner Robins99.8%46-046Wayne CountyAAAAA
37.26A PublicBowdon88.8%31-1417Mount Zion (Carroll)A Public
37.06AAAAAJonesboro95.9%24-024DrewAAAAA
36.94AAABurke County97.0%37-730HephzibahAAA
36.38A PrivateCalvary Day98.5%37-037Savannah Country DayA Private
36.07AAAAAApalachee60.4%15-132Walnut GroveAAAAA
35.99A PublicAtkinson County52.9%24-231Lanier CountyA Public
35.77AAAAAGriffin96.4%32-032NorthgateAAAAA
35.49A PrivateAthens Academy77.6%32-2111Athens ChristianA Private
35.32AAAAABlessed Trinity97.6%40-733HiramAAAAA
34.50A PublicDublin88.7%28-1018Johnson CountyA Public
33.82AAAPierce County98.6%38-038Long CountyAAA
33.57AAAAAAEffingham County94.7%27-027Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
33.37AAAAAAANorcross97.8%35-035DuluthAAAAAAA
33.31AAAAAACreekview99.3%37-037ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
33.28A PrivateMount Paran Christian57.2%24-213Christian HeritageA Private
33.02AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain98.1%34-034WheelerAAAAAA
32.70A PublicCommerce72.7%21-138Social CircleA Public
32.63AAAAALithia Springs90.2%34-1420Chapel HillAAAAA
32.24A PublicEmanuel County Institute86.7%26-719Jenkins CountyA Public
31.79A PrivateFellowship Christian94.6%35-1223Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
31.72A PublicPelham88.4%28-1315Terrell CountyA Public
31.39AAAAHoward64.4%20-146RutlandAAAA
31.38AAAAIslands68.7%17-98JenkinsAAAA
30.00AAAWindsor Forest91.4%27-027Johnson (Savannah)AAA
29.55AABremen83.1%31-1813TempleAA
29.02AAAAAAEvans93.5%31-625Heritage (Conyers)AAAAAA
28.91AAAPike County69.5%22-157Central (Macon)AAA
28.72AAPepperell58.8%21-201ModelAA
28.41AAATattnall County95.5%30-030Brantley CountyAAA
27.51A PrivateFirst Presbyterian97.2%35-035Deerfield-WindsorA Private
27.38A PublicDooly County88.2%27-720TreutlenA Public
27.30AAAFranklin County57.4%17-143East JacksonAAA
26.66AAAAAASouth Cobb89.7%26-026OsborneAAAAAA
26.52AAAWhite County88.0%28-1315Lumpkin CountyAAA
26.01AAAAAAAArcher99.5%36-036DiscoveryAAAAAAA
25.92A PublicWheeler County88.4%32-1418Telfair CountyA Public
25.74AAAGilmer59.8%23-203West HallAAA
24.89AAAAASt. Pius X99.4%35-035M.L. KingAAAAA
24.69A PrivateSt. Anne-Pacelli95.8%30-030Heritage (Newnan)A Private
24.24A PublicMiller County56.9%18-144Seminole CountyA Public
24.15A PublicWarren County82.3%24-1014Georgia Military CollegeA Public
24.01AAAAAUnion Grove98.6%36-036Locust GroveAAAAA
23.99A PrivateKing's Ridge Christian82.6%27-1314St. FrancisA Private
23.85AAAALaGrange98.6%38-038SpencerAAAA
23.06AAAAAAGrovetown89.3%32-1418Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
21.80GISA AAATiftarea Academy63.5%27-216Brookwood SchoolGISA AAA
21.58A PublicMcIntosh County Academy93.6%28-028Screven CountyA Public
21.57A PrivateWesleyan98.3%35-035Providence ChristianA Private
21.20AAAMorgan County82.9%22-715Cross CreekAAA
20.63AAANorth Murray98.0%41-635Murray CountyAAA
19.99AAAAALithonia87.6%28-919Stone MountainAAAAA
19.54GISA AAASouthland Academy59.3%18-144Valwood SchoolGISA AAA
18.98AAEast Laurens81.8%28-1414Bacon CountyAA
18.88A PublicWilcox County97.0%33-033HawkinsvilleA Public
18.24AAAAABanneker98.8%37-037Tri-CitiesAAAAA
18.15A PublicTowns County67.5%24-195Greene CountyA Public
17.90AAACrisp County99.7%42-042Sumter CountyAAA
17.17GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.8%42-042Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
16.24AAPace Academy96.1%34-331TowersAA
16.01A PublicMetter99.7%43-043Bryan CountyA Public
15.81AAAAANew Manchester98.6%30-030North SpringsAAAAA
15.43GISA AAAFrederica Academy76.5%21-129St. Andrew's SchoolGISA AAA
15.40AAAAADecatur99.7%45-045NorthviewAAAAA
15.35GISA AAThomas Jefferson91.0%28-622Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
14.83AAAAACartersville100.0%49-049Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
13.40AAADouglass67.9%24-177RedanAAA
13.35GISA AABrentwood School97.5%38-632Piedmont AcademyGISA AA
12.11A PublicClaxton85.4%28-1414PortalA Public
11.47A PrivateMount de Sales97.6%37-037Strong Rock ChristianA Private
10.67A PublicMitchell County98.5%34-034Randolph-ClayA Public
10.62AAAANorthwest Whitfield98.9%40-040Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
10.50AAOglethorpe County84.6%28-1414Glenn HillsAA
9.26GISA AABriarwood Academy85.0%28-1315Augusta PrepGISA AA
8.31GISA AAAPinewood Christian98.1%42-1329Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
7.00A PublicGordon Lee93.6%31-724B.E.S.T. AcademyA Public
6.68AALamar County99.4%38-038Jasper CountyAA
4.78A PublicWilkinson County55.6%18-144Crawford CountyA Public
4.64AADade County97.0%28-028CoosaAA
4.01AAWashington96.8%33-033Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
3.48A PrivatePrince Avenue Christian100.0%47-047Loganville ChristianA Private
3.44AAJosey84.1%26-1016ButlerAA
1.66GISA AAGatewood School95.8%30-030King's AcademyGAPPS AA
-0.50AABanks County93.5%28-028Riverside Military AcademyAA
-2.57GAPPS AACherokee Christian86.1%27-918Flint River AcademyGAPPS A
-4.03AAAAAGreenbrier99.6%44-044Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
-4.75GISA AAABulloch Academy94.4%31-328Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA
-5.14A PublicMontgomery County99.8%48-048Baconton CharterA Public
-5.78A PublicHancock Central84.8%27-1314Twiggs CountyA Public
-7.95GISA AATerrell Academy99.6%48-048Memorial DayGISA AA
-8.85AAAAAAADunwoody97.9%37-037BerkmarAAAAAAA
-9.87AATherrell97.3%28-028KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
-11.65GISA AAAWestfield School99.8%46-046Creekside ChristianGISA AAA
-12.75A PublicGreenville99.7%47-047Central (Talbotton)A Public
-19.52GAPPS ACentral Christian81.0%21-714John Hancock AcademyGISA AA
-20.05GAPPS ARock Springs Christian91.4%35-1421Lake Oconee AcademyA Public
-25.16GISA AAGeorgia Christian96.9%34-034Fullington AcademyGISA AA
-30.79GAPPS AASkipstone Academy94.9%36-1323Community ChristianGAPPS AA

Oct 23

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
47.93A PrivateMount Vernon Presbyterian52.9%18-171Holy InnocentsA Private
35.64AAAAAChamblee73.4%27-189Maynard JacksonAAAAA
7.86AAAAShaw75.2%21-129KendrickAAAA
0.57AAAAHardaway99.1%37-037JordanAAAA
-22.70AASouth Atlanta100.0%51-051McNairAA