High School Sports Blog

Maxwell preseason summary

Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 16, 2021

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the 460 teams of the Georgia High School Association (GHSA), the Georgia Independent School Association (GISA), and the Georgia Association of Private & Parochial Schools (GAPPS) throughout the 2021 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

The ratings are scaled so that there is a 50% chance in any given year of at least one team eclipsing a rating of 100.00.

A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of ---- of ---- total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within --.-- points and all game margins within --.-- points.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.35

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Grayson0-0104.021Buford0-098.02
2Colquitt County0-0103.812Lee County0-095.27
3Lowndes0-099.983Valdosta0-090.94
4North Gwinnett0-093.804Allatoona0-086.32
5Parkview0-091.365Carrollton0-084.62
6Milton0-090.466Westlake0-084.33
7Archer0-089.997Rome0-083.63
8Mill Creek0-088.938Dacula0-083.51
9Norcross0-088.689Northside (Warner Robins)0-079.22
10North Cobb0-087.9210Richmond Hill0-078.52
11Collins Hill0-086.2511Houston County0-077.39
12McEachern0-084.2012Glynn Academy0-076.82
13Roswell0-084.1113Kell0-076.01
14Harrison0-084.0514Creekview0-075.07
15Camden County0-083.6515Hughes0-073.56



AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Warner Robins0-094.091Marist0-092.54
2Cartersville0-093.062Jefferson0-083.42
3Blessed Trinity0-092.273Bainbridge0-081.74
4Coffee0-086.364Benedictine0-077.92
5Ware County0-086.055Cedartown0-074.97
6Jones County0-081.666Flowery Branch0-074.92
7Calhoun0-079.167Hapeville Charter0-073.16
8Veterans0-077.288Cairo0-073.12
9Dutchtown0-076.009Carver (Columbus)0-072.60
10Wayne County0-075.8610West Laurens0-069.29
11St. Pius X0-075.8011Stephenson0-069.11
12Starr's Mill0-074.9912Troup0-068.52
13Clarke Central0-074.0613Perry0-068.00
14Woodward Academy0-073.8114North Oconee0-067.90
15Griffin0-072.4715Baldwin0-066.84



AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove0-091.041Callaway0-080.04
2Peach County0-083.872Fitzgerald0-079.97
3Oconee County0-082.933Rabun County0-077.68
4Greater Atlanta Christian0-082.704Thomasville0-075.84
5Pierce County0-081.615Lovett0-070.44
6Crisp County0-081.246Dodge County0-068.65
7Rockmart0-075.857Jefferson County0-068.52
8Sandy Creek0-074.498Washington County0-066.99
9Westminster (Atlanta)0-074.029Bremen0-066.73
10Appling County0-073.5110Bleckley County0-066.16
11Thomson0-070.2611Pace Academy0-065.29
12Monroe Area0-069.2912Heard County0-064.81
13Carver (Atlanta)0-068.4513Vidalia0-063.90
14White County0-068.3114Northeast0-063.49
15Hart County0-066.2815Early County0-062.51



A Public A Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County0-082.071Eagle's Landing Christian0-082.54
2Brooks County0-080.132Prince Avenue Christian0-078.97
3Clinch County0-073.323Athens Academy0-076.23
4Dublin0-072.434Fellowship Christian0-072.57
5Commerce0-066.815Wesleyan0-070.39
6Metter0-065.386Savannah Christian0-066.30
7Pelham0-063.047Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-065.57
8Turner County0-061.568Holy Innocents0-064.36
9Wilcox County0-061.299George Walton Academy0-063.52
10Mitchell County0-059.9810Christian Heritage0-063.08
11Marion County0-059.4911Calvary Day0-062.84
12Washington-Wilkes0-058.9112Darlington0-061.97
13Macon County0-058.5913North Cobb Christian0-061.85
14Lincoln County0-058.3714Mount Vernon Presbyterian0-059.51
15McIntosh County Academy0-055.8615Hebron Christian0-059.37



GISA AAA GISA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1John Milledge Academy0-079.501Gatewood School0-062.43
2Frederica Academy0-055.902Brentwood School0-052.69
3Tiftarea Academy0-055.763Terrell Academy0-046.38
4Bulloch Academy0-055.084Southwest Georgia Academy0-045.12
5Valwood School0-054.205Briarwood Academy0-043.20



GAPPS AA GAPPS A
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Community Christian0-045.071Flint River Academy0-029.65
2Calvary Christian0-037.392Lafayette Christian0-016.19
3Central Fellowship Christian0-033.953Griffin Christian0-09.39
4Pinecrest Academy0-030.124Central Christian0-07.91
5King's Academy0-029.535Rock Springs Christian0-0-3.04



All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating Sch Str Rank Offense Defense
1 [1]Grayson4-AAAAAAA0-0104.0234.83-12.55
2 [2]Colquitt County1-AAAAAAA0-0103.8134.24-12.93
3 [3]Lowndes1-AAAAAAA0-099.9833.55-9.79
4 [1]Buford8-AAAAAA0-098.0233.34-8.04
5 [2]Lee County1-AAAAAA0-095.2731.07-7.55
6 [1]Warner Robins1-AAAAA0-094.0931.25-6.20
7 [4]North Gwinnett8-AAAAAAA0-093.8029.62-7.53
8 [2]Cartersville7-AAAAA0-093.0629.74-6.67
9 [1]Marist6-AAAA0-092.5427.82-8.07
10 [3]Blessed Trinity7-AAAAA0-092.2730.29-5.34
11 [5]Parkview4-AAAAAAA0-091.3629.91-4.80
12 [1]Cedar Grove5-AAA0-091.0427.46-6.93
13 [3]Valdosta1-AAAAAA0-090.9429.85-4.44
14 [6]Milton5-AAAAAAA0-090.4627.30-6.51
15 [7]Archer7-AAAAAAA0-089.9927.29-6.06
16 [8]Mill Creek8-AAAAAAA0-088.9327.08-5.21
17 [9]Norcross7-AAAAAAA0-088.6827.01-5.03
18 [10]North Cobb3-AAAAAAA0-087.9227.15-4.12
19 [4]Coffee1-AAAAA0-086.3625.88-3.84
20 [4]Allatoona6-AAAAAA0-086.3223.99-5.69
21 [11]Collins Hill8-AAAAAAA0-086.2525.28-4.33
22 [5]Ware County1-AAAAA0-086.0526.28-3.13
23 [5]Carrollton5-AAAAAA0-084.6226.36-1.62
24 [6]Westlake4-AAAAAA0-084.3326.13-1.55
25 [12]McEachern2-AAAAAAA0-084.2025.21-2.35
26 [13]Roswell5-AAAAAAA0-084.1125.73-1.73
27 [14]Harrison3-AAAAAAA0-084.0524.69-2.71
28 [2]Peach County2-AAA0-083.8725.06-2.17
29 [15]Camden County1-AAAAAAA0-083.6524.97-2.04
30 [7]Rome5-AAAAAA0-083.6324.41-2.58
31 [8]Dacula8-AAAAAA0-083.5125.26-1.61
32 [2]Jefferson8-AAAA0-083.4225.02-1.75
33 [16]Hillgrove3-AAAAAAA0-083.0325.37-1.01
34 [3]Oconee County8-AAA0-082.9323.08-3.20
35 [4]Greater Atlanta Christian5-AAA0-082.7024.47-1.58
36 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian2-A Private0-082.5424.18-1.72
37 [17]Walton3-AAAAAAA0-082.2024.32-1.23
38 [18]Marietta3-AAAAAAA0-082.1826.571.03
39 [1]Irwin County2-A Public0-082.0722.67-2.76
40 [3]Bainbridge1-AAAA0-081.7423.43-1.66
41 [6]Jones County4-AAAAA0-081.6625.130.12
42 [5]Pierce County1-AAA0-081.6124.43-0.54
43 [6]Crisp County2-AAA0-081.2422.10-2.49
44 [19]Brookwood4-AAAAAAA0-081.1025.691.23
45 [20]Tift County1-AAAAAAA0-081.0022.78-1.58
46 [21]East Coweta2-AAAAAAA0-080.8124.420.26
47 [2]Brooks County2-A Public0-080.1323.550.06
48 [1]Callaway5-AA0-080.0423.820.42
49 [2]Fitzgerald1-AA0-079.9723.24-0.09
50 [22]West Forsyth6-AAAAAAA0-079.9321.81-1.48
51 [1]John Milledge AcademyGISA 4-AAA0-079.5022.26-0.60
52 [9]Northside (Warner Robins)1-AAAAAA0-079.2221.29-1.29
53 [7]Calhoun7-AAAAA0-079.1622.09-0.43
54 [23]Cherokee5-AAAAAAA0-079.0322.33-0.05
55 [2]Prince Avenue Christian8-A Private0-078.9725.483.15
56 [10]Richmond Hill2-AAAAAA0-078.5222.490.61
57 [24]Newton4-AAAAAAA0-078.2921.42-0.23
58 [4]Benedictine3-AAAA0-077.9224.673.39
59 [25]South Forsyth6-AAAAAAA0-077.7523.722.61
60 [3]Rabun County8-AA0-077.6823.652.61
61 [11]Houston County1-AAAAAA0-077.3921.090.34
62 [8]Veterans1-AAAAA0-077.2820.56-0.07
63 [12]Glynn Academy2-AAAAAA0-076.8220.560.38
64 [3]Athens Academy8-A Private0-076.2320.721.13
65 [26]North Paulding3-AAAAAAA0-076.0622.352.93
66 [13]Kell6-AAAAAA0-076.0122.663.30
67 [9]Dutchtown4-AAAAA0-076.0018.69-0.67
68 [27]Newnan2-AAAAAAA0-075.8821.532.30
69 [10]Wayne County1-AAAAA0-075.8620.261.04
70 [7]Rockmart6-AAA0-075.8522.753.54
71 [4]Thomasville1-AA0-075.8421.602.40
72 [11]St. Pius X5-AAAAA0-075.8021.152.00
73 [14]Creekview7-AAAAAA0-075.0719.410.98
74 [12]Starr's Mill2-AAAAA0-074.9919.631.29
75 [5]Cedartown7-AAAA0-074.9718.960.63
76 [6]Flowery Branch8-AAAA0-074.9220.672.39
77 [28]South Gwinnett4-AAAAAAA0-074.8919.291.04
78 [8]Sandy Creek5-AAA0-074.4919.441.59
79 [13]Clarke Central8-AAAAA0-074.0621.424.00
80 [9]Westminster (Atlanta)5-AAA0-074.0218.290.91
81 [14]Woodward Academy3-AAAAA0-073.8120.963.79
82 [15]Hughes4-AAAAAA0-073.5619.572.66
83 [10]Appling County1-AAA0-073.5119.502.63
84 [3]Clinch County2-A Public0-073.3219.472.79
85 [16]Brunswick2-AAAAAA0-073.3019.873.22
86 [29]Alpharetta5-AAAAAAA0-073.2718.722.10
87 [7]Hapeville Charter6-AAAA0-073.1618.682.16
88 [8]Cairo1-AAAA0-073.1218.922.44
89 [17]Lanier8-AAAAAA0-072.9618.682.36
90 [18]Lovejoy4-AAAAAA0-072.8519.112.90
91 [19]Tucker4-AAAAAA0-072.8519.493.29
92 [9]Carver (Columbus)2-AAAA0-072.6020.544.59
93 [4]Fellowship Christian6-A Private0-072.5721.185.25
94 [30]Gainesville6-AAAAAAA0-072.5419.413.52
95 [15]Griffin2-AAAAA0-072.4719.143.31
96 [4]Dublin4-A Public0-072.4320.334.54
97 [31]Mountain View8-AAAAAAA0-072.3220.314.63
98 [20]Alexander5-AAAAAA0-072.2520.524.91
99 [21]Sprayberry6-AAAAAA0-072.1519.814.31
100 [22]Johns Creek7-AAAAAA0-072.1419.103.60
101 [23]Douglas County5-AAAAAA0-072.1017.091.64
102 [32]North Forsyth6-AAAAAAA0-072.0818.983.54
103 [16]Creekside3-AAAAA0-072.0319.584.20
104 [33]Denmark6-AAAAAAA0-071.6518.323.31
105 [17]Ola4-AAAAA0-071.1019.455.00
106 [5]Lovett6-AA0-070.4417.733.94
107 [5]Wesleyan5-A Private0-070.3916.873.12
108 [11]Thomson4-AAA0-070.2619.205.58
109 [24]Dalton5-AAAAAA0-069.8918.094.84
110 [34]Etowah5-AAAAAAA0-069.6816.613.57
111 [18]Eastside8-AAAAA0-069.5217.844.97
112 [35]Woodstock5-AAAAAAA0-069.3618.325.61
113 [25]Sequoyah7-AAAAAA0-069.3117.424.75
114 [10]West Laurens4-AAAA0-069.2916.824.17
115 [12]Monroe Area8-AAA0-069.2917.074.43
116 [11]Stephenson6-AAAA0-069.1115.653.18
117 [19]Stockbridge4-AAAAA0-069.0217.575.19
118 [6]Dodge County3-AA0-068.6518.066.05
119 [7]Jefferson County4-AA0-068.5217.936.05
120 [12]Troup2-AAAA0-068.5217.695.81
121 [13]Carver (Atlanta)5-AAA0-068.4517.585.77
122 [14]White County7-AAA0-068.3119.057.38
123 [13]Perry4-AAAA0-068.0016.695.33
124 [14]North Oconee8-AAAA0-067.9018.697.43
125 [26]Shiloh8-AAAAAA0-067.5617.296.37
126 [27]South Paulding5-AAAAAA0-067.1416.976.47
127 [28]East Paulding5-AAAAAA0-067.0115.975.61
128 [8]Washington County3-AA0-066.9916.866.51
129 [15]Baldwin4-AAAA0-066.8416.576.38
130 [5]Commerce8-A Public0-066.8116.976.81
131 [29]Winder-Barrow8-AAAAAA0-066.7617.016.89
132 [36]Pebblebrook2-AAAAAAA0-066.7515.685.57
133 [9]Bremen5-AA0-066.7315.515.41
134 [30]River Ridge7-AAAAAA0-066.6016.446.48
135 [37]Forsyth Central6-AAAAAAA0-066.4916.166.32
136 [6]Savannah Christian3-A Private0-066.3016.626.97
137 [15]Hart County8-AAA0-066.2816.667.03
138 [20]Union Grove4-AAAAA0-066.2016.727.17
139 [10]Bleckley County3-AA0-066.1617.017.49
140 [31]Cambridge7-AAAAAA0-066.1415.546.05
141 [16]Burke County4-AAA0-066.1218.138.66
142 [17]Dawson County7-AAA0-066.0618.038.62
143 [18]Mary Persons2-AAA0-066.0616.537.12
144 [16]Mays6-AAAA0-066.0216.857.47
145 [38]Peachtree Ridge8-AAAAAAA0-066.0016.076.71
146 [21]Harris County2-AAAAA0-065.6415.656.66
147 [7]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)4-A Private0-065.5715.426.49
148 [6]Metter3-A Public0-065.3814.305.57
149 [32]Riverwood7-AAAAAA0-065.3614.936.21
150 [17]Thomas County Central1-AAAA0-065.3117.218.54
151 [33]Habersham Central8-AAAAAA0-065.3117.508.83
152 [22]Southwest DeKalb5-AAAAA0-065.3113.795.12
153 [11]Pace Academy6-AA0-065.2914.415.77
154 [12]Heard County5-AA0-064.8115.807.64
155 [8]Holy Innocents5-A Private0-064.3614.977.25
156 [34]Evans3-AAAAAA0-064.1915.277.73
157 [23]Loganville8-AAAAA0-064.1814.076.53
158 [18]Riverdale5-AAAA0-064.0315.498.10
159 [13]Vidalia2-AA0-063.9014.287.02
160 [24]Chapel Hill6-AAAAA0-063.7115.248.17
161 [19]Upson-Lee2-AAA0-063.6715.438.40
162 [20]North Hall7-AAA0-063.6315.598.61
163 [9]George Walton Academy8-A Private0-063.5214.737.85
164 [14]Northeast3-AA0-063.4915.128.28
165 [39]Lambert6-AAAAAAA0-063.4415.999.20
166 [21]Stephens County8-AAA0-063.3615.308.59
167 [19]Jenkins3-AAAA0-063.1114.137.66
168 [10]Christian Heritage7-A Private0-063.0814.948.51
169 [7]Pelham1-A Public0-063.0415.188.79
170 [20]Cedar Shoals8-AAAA0-062.9112.726.45
171 [11]Calvary Day3-A Private0-062.8413.927.72
172 [35]Statesboro2-AAAAAA0-062.6614.648.62
173 [15]Early County1-AA0-062.5114.318.44
174 [1]Gatewood SchoolGISA 1-AA0-062.4312.907.12
175 [36]Central Gwinnett8-AAAAAA0-062.0715.8610.44
176 [16]Jeff Davis2-AA0-061.9714.459.13
177 [12]Darlington7-A Private0-061.9713.968.63
178 [25]Hiram7-AAAAA0-061.9114.349.08
179 [21]Westside (Macon)4-AAAA0-061.8714.679.45
180 [13]North Cobb Christian7-A Private0-061.8513.167.96
181 [22]Morgan County4-AAA0-061.7213.268.18
182 [22]New Hampstead3-AAAA0-061.6714.819.78
183 [8]Turner County2-A Public0-061.5613.228.30
184 [17]Swainsboro2-AA0-061.5012.247.39
185 [18]Toombs County2-AA0-061.4914.119.26
186 [26]Decatur5-AAAAA0-061.4313.438.64
187 [27]Northgate2-AAAAA0-061.4313.368.58
188 [9]Wilcox County4-A Public0-061.2913.628.98
189 [23]Central (Carrollton)7-AAAA0-061.2414.569.96
190 [28]Jonesboro3-AAAAA0-061.1611.517.00
191 [24]Hardaway2-AAAA0-061.1112.918.45
192 [23]Jackson2-AAA0-061.0014.019.65
193 [19]Cook1-AA0-060.9413.519.21
194 [20]Haralson County5-AA0-060.9214.019.74
195 [24]Richmond Academy4-AAA0-060.7611.817.70
196 [21]Pepperell7-AA0-060.6313.609.61
197 [37]Kennesaw Mountain6-AAAAAA0-060.6213.939.95
198 [38]Pope6-AAAAAA0-060.4713.549.72
199 [25]North Murray6-AAA0-060.3414.3110.62
200 [22]Fannin County7-AA0-060.2913.7310.08
201 [25]Howard4-AAAA0-060.1813.229.69
202 [26]Douglass5-AAA0-060.1012.308.84
203 [39]Wheeler6-AAAAAA0-060.0313.069.68
204 [29]Cass7-AAAAA0-060.0011.628.27
205 [10]Mitchell County1-A Public0-059.9814.8511.51
206 [40]North Atlanta4-AAAAAA0-059.9112.309.04
207 [26]Westover1-AAAA0-059.7112.008.94
208 [14]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5-A Private0-059.5113.9911.12
209 [11]Marion County5-A Public0-059.4912.8910.04
210 [27]Islands3-AAAA0-059.4312.339.54
211 [15]Hebron Christian5-A Private0-059.3712.539.80
212 [28]Northwest Whitfield7-AAAA0-059.2313.6311.04
213 [30]New Manchester6-AAAAA0-059.1712.019.48
214 [27]Central (Macon)2-AAA0-059.1212.359.87
215 [12]Washington-Wilkes8-A Public0-058.9112.269.99
216 [13]Macon County5-A Public0-058.5912.9511.01
217 [31]Whitewater2-AAAAA0-058.4611.8510.03
218 [14]Lincoln County8-A Public0-058.3710.949.22
219 [23]Elbert County8-AA0-058.2312.5911.00
220 [32]Locust Grove4-AAAAA0-058.2011.9410.38
221 [41]Paulding County5-AAAAAA0-058.2013.2211.67
222 [16]Whitefield Academy2-A Private0-057.9511.159.84
223 [33]M.L. King5-AAAAA0-057.9411.049.74
224 [28]Liberty County3-AAA0-057.8710.969.74
225 [34]Woodland (Stockbridge)4-AAAAA0-057.6412.7311.73
226 [40]Meadowcreek7-AAAAAAA0-057.4814.4413.61
227 [29]LaGrange2-AAAA0-057.4010.569.80
228 [17]Stratford Academy1-A Private0-057.3910.8610.12
229 [30]Madison County8-AAAA0-057.3310.8410.16
230 [18]Aquinas3-A Private0-057.2612.4211.80
231 [31]Heritage (Ringgold)7-AAAA0-057.1011.1910.74
232 [42]Heritage (Conyers)3-AAAAAA0-056.6110.3610.39
233 [24]Union County8-AA0-056.4511.5511.74
234 [29]Sumter County2-AAA0-056.2810.3410.71
235 [35]Greenbrier8-AAAAA0-056.1911.3111.76
236 [30]Windsor Forest3-AAA0-056.198.488.94
237 [2]Frederica AcademyGISA 2-AAA0-055.9010.2210.96
238 [15]McIntosh County Academy3-A Public0-055.8610.6411.43
239 [32]Arabia Mountain6-AAAA0-055.7710.5111.38
240 [3]Tiftarea AcademyGISA 3-AAA0-055.7611.0011.89
241 [43]South Effingham2-AAAAAA0-055.7511.3512.25
242 [36]Banneker3-AAAAA0-055.7510.1111.00
243 [33]Ridgeland7-AAAA0-055.6111.7912.82
244 [19]Savannah Country Day3-A Private0-055.5911.7512.80
245 [44]Lassiter6-AAAAAA0-055.559.3210.42
246 [45]Chattahoochee7-AAAAAA0-055.5212.9514.07
247 [16]Manchester5-A Public0-055.4310.3411.55
248 [31]Franklin County8-AAA0-055.2810.3711.74
249 [46]Effingham County2-AAAAAA0-055.179.9011.38
250 [4]Bulloch AcademyGISA 2-AAA0-055.0811.1512.71
251 [37]Maynard Jackson6-AAAAA0-055.089.9511.52
252 [25]Temple5-AA0-054.9810.4912.15
253 [20]First Presbyterian1-A Private0-054.9610.4012.08
254 [38]Mundy's Mill3-AAAAA0-054.9411.2812.98
255 [32]Adairsville6-AAA0-054.9410.1811.88
256 [34]Pickens7-AAAA0-054.6010.6912.73
257 [39]Villa Rica6-AAAAA0-054.2210.6813.10
258 [5]Valwood SchoolGISA 3-AAA0-054.2011.2213.67
259 [6]Pinewood ChristianGISA 2-AAA0-054.1610.4812.97
260 [17]Bowdon6-A Public0-054.089.6512.22
261 [21]Mount Paran Christian7-A Private0-054.048.8211.42
262 [47]Alcovy3-AAAAAA0-053.8210.3613.18
263 [18]Emanuel County Institute3-A Public0-053.7710.2613.13
264 [40]Lithonia5-AAAAA0-053.659.6412.64
265 [41]Duluth7-AAAAAAA0-053.6411.1114.11
266 [19]Chattahoochee County5-A Public0-053.588.4511.51
267 [20]Charlton County2-A Public0-053.5610.4613.55
268 [42]Discovery7-AAAAAAA0-053.518.9612.09
269 [41]Eagle's Landing4-AAAAA0-053.508.7811.93
270 [42]Apalachee8-AAAAA0-053.419.7112.94
271 [33]Cherokee Bluff7-AAA0-053.228.8412.27
272 [34]Southeast Bulloch3-AAA0-052.969.2912.97
273 [22]Mount de Sales1-A Private0-052.929.5713.29
274 [26]South Atlanta6-AA0-052.908.2612.01
275 [21]Johnson County4-A Public0-052.888.8712.63
276 [22]Atkinson County2-A Public0-052.8010.3014.14
277 [23]Warren County7-A Public0-052.739.2913.20
278 [2]Brentwood SchoolGISA 1-AA0-052.6910.9914.95
279 [43]Campbell2-AAAAAAA0-052.558.6212.71
280 [48]Centennial7-AAAAAA0-052.4810.7914.95
281 [24]Schley County5-A Public0-052.238.0512.46
282 [27]Worth County1-AA0-052.2310.2914.70
283 [43]Northview5-AAAAA0-052.1810.3614.83
284 [49]Lakeside (Evans)3-AAAAAA0-052.077.7312.30
285 [44]Woodland (Cartersville)7-AAAAA0-051.937.3212.03
286 [23]Mount Pisgah Christian6-A Private0-051.9010.3515.10
287 [35]Fayette County5-AAAA0-051.877.4212.19
288 [25]Taylor County5-A Public0-051.7110.1215.05
289 [24]Brookstone4-A Private0-051.618.8413.88
290 [45]Jackson County8-AAAAA0-051.376.9512.22
291 [28]Putnam County4-AA0-051.328.4313.75
292 [26]Telfair County4-A Public0-051.248.1813.59
293 [46]Northside (Columbus)2-AAAAA0-051.2410.5615.97
294 [29]Columbia6-AA0-051.217.8913.32
295 [30]Washington6-AA0-051.128.8714.39
296 [50]Bradwell Institute2-AAAAAA0-051.108.8214.37
297 [36]Monroe1-AAAA0-051.098.5714.13
298 [51]Morrow4-AAAAAA0-051.077.9413.51
299 [31]Model7-AA0-051.046.3711.97
300 [35]Sonoraville6-AAA0-050.939.3715.08
301 [7]Brookwood SchoolGISA 3-AAA0-050.738.9714.89
302 [36]Hephzibah4-AAA0-050.609.4715.51
303 [32]Lamar County3-AA0-050.537.5813.69
304 [47]Lithia Springs6-AAAAA0-050.539.2815.40
305 [52]Grovetown3-AAAAAA0-050.457.1413.34
306 [48]Tri-Cities3-AAAAA0-050.447.7413.95
307 [27]Gordon Lee6-A Public0-050.397.6713.92
308 [28]Claxton3-A Public0-050.137.7614.28
309 [25]Tattnall Square1-A Private0-050.037.9614.58
310 [37]Spalding4-AAAA0-049.988.6615.33
311 [8]Southland AcademyGISA 3-AAA0-049.956.4513.14
312 [38]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)5-AAAA0-049.526.8313.95
313 [29]Hancock Central7-A Public0-049.397.7414.99
314 [33]Bacon County2-AA0-049.247.6515.05
315 [37]Harlem4-AAA0-049.198.4815.93
316 [53]Rockdale County3-AAAAAA0-049.067.6915.27
317 [38]Ringgold6-AAA0-049.057.7015.30
318 [34]Chattooga7-AA0-048.917.0614.80
319 [39]Luella5-AAAA0-048.915.8413.57
320 [40]Miller Grove6-AAAA0-048.904.3012.04
321 [30]Screven County3-A Public0-048.758.0615.96
322 [49]Walnut Grove8-AAAAA0-048.725.8213.75
323 [35]Southwest3-AA0-048.657.5615.55
324 [31]Mount Zion (Carroll)6-A Public0-048.647.2915.29
325 [9]Westfield SchoolGISA 4-AAA0-048.568.2216.30
326 [50]Drew3-AAAAA0-048.505.8313.98
327 [41]Shaw2-AAAA0-048.295.6313.99
328 [42]Columbus2-AAAA0-048.248.5116.91
329 [32]Dooly County4-A Public0-048.196.5014.95
330 [54]South Cobb6-AAAAAA0-048.169.2117.69
331 [43]Dougherty1-AAAA0-047.966.6915.37
332 [39]West Hall7-AAA0-047.876.9715.74
333 [40]Pike County2-AAA0-047.757.2716.16
334 [26]Heritage (Newnan)4-A Private0-047.606.5715.61
335 [27]Deerfield-Windsor1-A Private0-047.565.7014.79
336 [28]Athens Christian8-A Private0-047.548.4317.53
337 [33]Lanier County2-A Public0-047.397.3416.59
338 [34]Montgomery County4-A Public0-047.277.2816.66
339 [36]Berrien1-AA0-047.088.0917.65
340 [41]LaFayette6-AAA0-046.958.2017.89
341 [35]B.E.S.T. Academy6-A Public0-046.676.3416.31
342 [29]St. Anne-Pacelli4-A Private0-046.665.7715.76
343 [44]East Hall8-AAAA0-046.528.9619.09
344 [51]McIntosh2-AAAAA0-046.477.4817.65
345 [3]Terrell AcademyGISA 2-AA0-046.385.7215.98
346 [36]Trion6-A Public0-045.716.1417.08
347 [42]Salem5-AAA †0-045.596.1617.21
348 [52]Midtown6-AAAAA0-045.404.7816.03
349 [37]Jenkins County3-A Public0-045.254.2115.61
350 [45]Chestatee8-AAAA0-045.218.4619.90
351 [4]Southwest Georgia AcademyGISA 2-AA0-045.127.1918.71
352 [44]Dunwoody7-AAAAAAA0-045.074.0415.62
353 [1]Community ChristianGAPPS 2-AA0-045.074.7016.28
354 [30]Strong Rock Christian1-A Private0-044.615.7617.79
355 [46]Hampton5-AAAA0-044.374.1916.46
356 [38]Terrell County1-A Public0-043.903.9416.69
357 [43]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6-AAA0-043.375.6318.90
358 [37]Jasper County3-AA0-043.364.7017.99
359 [5]Briarwood AcademyGISA 4-AA0-043.204.5918.03
360 [38]Westside (Augusta)4-AA0-043.183.1216.59
361 [44]Brantley County1-AAA0-042.663.6517.64
362 [39]Miller County1-A Public0-042.473.2017.37
363 [39]Laney4-AA0-042.161.3515.83
364 [45]Tattnall County1-AAA0-042.164.1018.58
365 [46]Redan5-AAA0-042.045.2819.89
366 [53]Stone Mountain5-AAAAA0-041.915.0719.80
367 [54]Chamblee5-AAAAA †0-041.803.6518.49
368 [47]Beach3-AAA0-041.594.4719.53
369 [6]Edmund Burke AcademyGISA 4-AA0-040.932.6518.37
370 [31]Lakeview Academy6-A Private0-040.713.4719.41
371 [47]Spencer2-AAAA0-040.300.9617.31
372 [48]Gilmer7-AAA0-040.111.4617.99
373 [32]St. Francis6-A Private0-040.104.5921.14
374 [49]Murray County6-AAA0-040.083.3219.88
375 [40]Gordon Central7-AA0-040.052.5919.18
376 [41]Coosa7-AA0-039.892.7119.46
377 [33]Loganville Christian8-A Private0-039.812.1919.03
378 [48]McDonough5-AAAA0-039.672.7519.73
379 [42]Therrell6-AA0-039.493.0720.23
380 [50]Johnson (Savannah)3-AAA0-039.473.1520.32
381 [34]Landmark Christian2-A Private0-039.472.0719.24
382 [43]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6-AA0-039.462.4319.62
383 [44]East Laurens2-AA0-039.424.2621.49
384 [45]Banks County8-AA0-039.150.8718.36
385 [7]Memorial DayGISA 2-AA0-038.562.8320.91
386 [10]Creekside ChristianGISA 4-AAA0-038.151.8020.29
387 [51]East Jackson8-AAA0-038.084.0522.62
388 [40]Hawkinsville4-A Public0-038.032.0320.64
389 [49]Rutland4-AAAA0-037.991.8220.47
390 [35]Walker7-A Private0-037.851.0419.84
391 [46]Butler4-AA0-037.750.5719.46
392 [2]Calvary ChristianGAPPS 1-AA0-037.391.5120.77
393 [8]Thomas JeffersonGISA 4-AA0-037.270.7320.11
394 [36]King's Ridge Christian6-A Private0-037.21-0.1719.26
395 [41]Seminole County1-A Public0-037.200.8820.33
396 [11]St. Andrew's SchoolGISA 2-AAA0-036.88-1.2718.50
397 [47]Dade County7-AA0-036.492.1622.32
398 [42]Wilkinson County7-A Public0-036.45-0.2919.91
399 [52]Coahulla Creek6-AAA0-036.220.1620.58
400 [43]Social Circle8-A Public0-036.133.3523.86
401 [12]Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA 2-AAA0-035.722.0222.94
402 [48]Riverside Military Academy8-AA0-035.511.0222.16
403 [55]North Springs6-AAAAA0-035.261.6423.03
404 [45]Berkmar7-AAAAAAA0-035.060.1321.71
405 [50]Southeast Whitfield7-AAAA †0-034.940.8822.58
406 [44]Greene County8-A Public0-034.861.0722.85
407 [45]Greenville5-A Public0-034.831.2323.04
408 [51]Jordan2-AAAA0-034.541.3923.49
409 [3]Central Fellowship ChristianGAPPS 2-AA0-033.950.2622.96
410 [9]Piedmont AcademyGISA 1-AA0-033.451.0524.25
411 [52]North Clayton5-AAAA0-033.43-2.6420.58
412 [46]Wheeler County4-A Public0-033.120.7224.24
413 [56]Johnson (Gainesville)8-AAAAA0-033.080.5324.09
414 [57]Forest Park3-AAAAA0-032.55-0.5023.59
415 [47]Treutlen4-A Public0-032.34-0.3423.96
416 [53]Cross Creek4-AAA0-031.96-2.4422.24
417 [48]Towns County8-A Public0-031.70-1.5723.37
418 [55]Lakeside (Atlanta)4-AAAAAA †0-031.47-1.7523.43
419 [37]Providence Christian5-A Private0-031.37-0.4724.80
420 [49]Georgia Military College7-A Public0-030.78-2.2823.58
421 [49]Oglethorpe County4-AA0-030.76-2.9322.95
422 [54]Long County1-AAA0-030.33-1.8924.43
423 [50]Towers6-AA0-030.15-4.2222.27
424 [4]Pinecrest AcademyGAPPS 1-AA0-030.12-2.0424.48
425 [13]Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA 4-AAA0-029.88-0.9925.77
426 [53]Druid Hills6-AAAA0-029.79-2.5324.33
427 [55]Savannah3-AAA0-029.68-3.3123.66
428 [1]Flint River AcademyGAPPS 1-A0-029.65-2.3624.63
429 [10]Robert Toombs AcademyGISA 2-AA0-029.57-0.1026.97
430 [5]King's AcademyGAPPS 1-AA0-029.53-2.2524.86
431 [56]Osborne6-AAAAAA0-028.64-3.5924.41
432 [51]Glenn Hills4-AA0-028.50-3.5024.64
433 [56]Lumpkin County7-AAA0-028.46-2.1826.00
434 [54]Kendrick2-AAAA0-027.99-2.3126.34
435 [50]Armuchee6-A Public0-027.69-4.3424.61
436 [51]Portal3-A Public0-027.68-3.2225.75
437 [52]Bryan County3-A Public0-025.79-3.2927.56
438 [52]Josey4-AA0-025.62-4.0127.01
439 [11]Augusta PrepGISA 4-AA0-025.36-4.0527.24
440 [53]McNair6-AA0-022.15-5.9428.55
441 [53]ACE Charter7-A Public0-021.67-5.2729.70
442 [54]Randolph-Clay1-A Public0-021.01-6.0229.61
443 [55]Twiggs County7-A Public0-020.79-7.3228.53
444 [56]Crawford County7-A Public0-020.39-4.9631.29
445 [57]Baconton Charter1-A Public †0-019.46-7.9229.26
446 [57]Groves3-AAA0-019.02-8.0829.54
447 [58]Central (Talbotton)5-A Public0-018.96-7.4730.22
448 [6]Skipstone AcademyGAPPS 2-AA0-017.86-10.2328.55
449 [58]Clarkston5-AAAAA †0-017.77-8.9329.95
450 [58]East Forsyth7-AAA0-016.67-8.5731.41
451 [2]Lafayette ChristianGAPPS 2-A0-016.19-10.0730.38
452 [59]Pataula Charter1-A Public †0-015.27-10.0231.35
453 [60]Glascock County7-A Public †0-012.93-9.6434.07
454 [7]Cherokee ChristianGAPPS 1-AA0-011.27-10.5634.81
455 [3]Griffin ChristianGAPPS 2-A0-09.39-10.8936.36
456 [4]Central ChristianGAPPS 1-A0-07.91-13.5635.17
457 [59]Cross Keys5-AAAAA †0-03.43-13.3939.82
458 [61]GSIC7-A Public †0-0-2.73-18.4940.88
459 [5]Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS 2-A0-0-3.04-19.5440.14
460 [6]Harvester ChristianGAPPS 1-A0-0-7.18-20.2243.60



† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Teams Comp Rating Avg Rating
11-AAAAAAA497.0792.11
24-AAAAAAA591.6485.93
31-AAAAAA489.6085.70
41-AAAAA587.4183.93
58-AAAAAAA586.5081.46
63-AAAAAAA684.4882.57
75-AAAAAAA681.7277.65
87-AAAAA681.1573.05
98-AAAAAA780.2473.74
102-AAAAAAA577.3072.04
115-AAAAAA876.1671.85
125-AAA775.1070.41
136-AAAAAAA774.8571.98
144-AAAAA871.4366.66
156-AAAA771.3162.19
164-AAAAAA671.2769.09
172-A Public771.0264.40
182-AAA870.8764.87
197-AAAAAAA770.7460.49
202-AAAAAA770.0564.76
215-AA569.9365.50
223-AAAA469.7665.53
238-AAAA769.3062.60
241-AAAA669.2163.15
258-AAA669.1962.53
261-AA669.0463.10
272-A Private368.9159.99
288-A Private568.8961.21
297-AAAAAA868.8065.33
306-AAAAAA968.6260.88
312-AAAAA766.3661.53
321-AAA564.2254.05
334-AAAA763.8659.17
343-AA762.8658.26
355-A Private562.8557.00
363-A Private462.7360.50
373-AAAAA862.3356.15
388-AAAAA862.3056.32
397-AAAA662.2060.46
404-AAA761.4755.80
418-AA561.2653.41
422-AA660.2656.25
437-A Private559.8755.76
44GISA 4-AAA459.0649.03
452-AAAA958.2051.00
463-AAAAAA657.1654.37
476-AAA956.9950.86
484-A Private456.9652.86
495-AAAAA756.6858.32
507-AAA856.3748.04
516-AAAAA756.0251.91
526-A Private555.6848.49
53GISA 1-AA355.4649.52
544-A Public954.9648.53
558-A Public654.8247.80
566-AA954.2946.91
57GISA 3-AAA454.1052.66
585-A Public853.6748.10
591-A Private653.4451.24
607-AA752.9048.18
613-A Public852.6646.57
625-AAAA752.1247.40
63GISA 2-AAA551.9947.55
646-A Public649.0545.53
653-AAA748.8742.40
664-AA848.1240.98
671-A Public646.4344.60
68GISA 2-AA443.1739.91
69GISA 4-AA439.7936.69
70GAPPS 2-AA337.7632.29
717-A Public735.2533.17
72GAPPS 1-AA431.4427.08
73GAPPS 1-A317.8110.13
74GAPPS 2-A311.537.51

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Favorite Underdog Score Diff Prob Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob
102.3810/22Colquitt CountyLowndes - 2.4857.5%
97.9609/10LowndesLee County - 3.3760.1%
95.3509/24Warner RobinsLee County - 0.1750.5%
95.0010/15GraysonParkview - 11.3279.7%
94.5709/10Colquitt CountyValdosta - 11.5380.2%
93.5110/29Lee CountyValdosta - 2.9858.9%
93.3410/08LowndesCedar Grove - 10.2977.7%
93.3310/15Blessed TrinityCartersville - 0.5651.7%
93.2409/24LowndesValdosta - 10.3977.9%
93.2109/03North GwinnettParkview - 1.0953.3%
93.2009/03Colquitt CountyCedar Grove - 14.1284.7%
93.0408/27Blessed TrinityMarist - 1.0853.3%
92.4908/27Warner RobinsArcher - 2.7658.3%
92.4709/24GraysonMill Creek - 13.7484.1%
92.3809/17North GwinnettArcher - 2.4657.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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