Maxwell Final projections

Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)

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Marist's Champ Davis (10) gets tackled by Blessed Trinity's Mavrick Torrico (32) in the second half at Blessed Trinity Catholic High School in Roswell on Friday, August 27, 2021. Marist won 28-13 over Blessed Trinity. (Hyosub Shin / Hyosub.Shin@ajc.com)

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Dec 9

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
74.91A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)88.0%35-2015Prince Avenue ChristianA Private
68.16A PublicBrooks County57.3%27-234Irwin CountyA Public

Dec 10

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
86.65AAAAAABuford87.6%26-719HughesAAAAAA
80.56AAAABenedictine76.7%31-2110Carver (Columbus)AAAA
72.86AAThomasville69.2%21-147FitzgeraldAA

Dec 11

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
97.28AAAAAAACollins Hill85.1%30-1416MiltonAAAAAAA
87.89AAAAAWarner Robins70.4%28-217CalhounAAAAA
73.74AAACedar Grove64.7%21-174Carver (Atlanta)AAA