The playoffs are coming, and the draw will matter.
Imagine a second round of Cartersville vs. Warner Robins and Cedar Grove vs. Oconee County, or a Thanksgiving quarterfinal weekend of Buford vs. Lee County, Marist vs. Benedictine, Rabun County vs. Thomasville and Irwin County vs. Macon County.
With two weeks left in the regular season, here is how the playoff draws are shaping up in each classification. Observations are shaped partly from the weekly Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections that appear Wednesdays on ajc.com.
Class 7A
In the minds of many, four teams have separated themselves – Collins Hill, Mill Creek, Milton and North Cobb. At this rate, only three can make the semifinals. The loser of Friday’s game between No. 1 Collins Hill and No. 2 Mill Creek is projected to travel to No. 4 Milton in the quarterfinals, while the winner would be home that week against No. 5 Lowndes. The best path belongs to No. 8 Brookwood, the presumptive Region 4 champion, which could face No. 7 Colquitt County at home with the semifinals at stake. The Broncos are given a 62% chance of making the semifinals and 25% of going to the final.
Class 6A
There will be no Buford-Lee County rematch in the championship game. Ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, Buford and Lee are projected to meet two weeks sooner, in the quarterfinals, with a coin toss to decide home field. No. 3 Hughes is a narrow favorite (given a 39% chance) to make its first state final appearance coming out of the other half.
Class 5A
If No. 1 Cartersville beats No. 6 Calhoun for the Region 7 title this week, the reward could be a second-round date with defending champion Warner Robins. The Cartersville-Calhoun loser could face a trip to No. 4 Ware County in the second round. The second round also could feature Creekside vs. Blessed Trinity. Unranked Whitewater, Jones County, Dutchtown and Starr’s Mill are projected to make the quarters.
Class 4A
Defending champion Marist is looking at facing No. 3 Benedictine in the quarterfinals, with the winner to play No. 1 Jefferson in the semifinals. The survivor of those musical chairs projects to meet one of the following potential region champions in the final – Carver of Columbus, Riverdale, Cedartown or Baldwin.
Class 3A
Losing to Monroe Area was costly to Oconee County, now projected to face No. 1 Cedar Grove in a road quarterfinal. That’s if Oconee can get by Crisp County in Cordele the round before. Then again, Monroe Area can’t be pleased to be paired with No. 2 Appling County in the quarters. The only ranked teams in the third quarter figure to be No. 7 Carver of Atlanta and No. 10 Rockmart, with Rockmart favored to have home-field privileges.
Class 2A
No. 1 Rabun County, seeking its first state title, is projected to face No. 2 Thomasville in the quarters, a coin toss deciding who’s at home. Fitzgerald, which lost to Thomasville last week for the Region 1 title, is the highest-ranked team slated for the draw’s upper half. Maxwell gives Fitzgerald a better chance of making the final than Thomasville (36% to 33%) but Thomasville the better chancing of winning the title. The upper quarter likely will render Northeast, Haralson County or Swainsboro, maybe North Oconee, schools recently, if forever, unfamiliar to the semifinals.
Class A Private
Prince Avenue Christian had to beat defending champion Eagle’s Landing Christian in the quarters last year en route to a championship. The draw is balanced this time. Projected semifinalists are ELCA vs. Trinity Christian and Calvary Day vs. Prince Avenue.
Class A Public
The draw’s second quarter projects to have only one ranked team, No. 10 Manchester, and the Blue Devils would have to play on the road throughout, so that’s the door out of which Cinderella will dance. Defending champion Irwin County might be looking at undefeated No. 3 Macon County in a quarterfinal.
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