With two weeks remaining in the regular season, here are GHSF Daily’s choices as the eight most intriguing region races.
The preference is for multiple good plots and not a single pending showdown for the title such, as Ware County vs. Coffee in Region 1-5A or Thomas County Central vs. Lee County in Region 1-6A. If a hat draw might decide a champion among three top-10 teams, or if Calhoun or Jeff Herron isn’t certain to make the playoffs this late in the game, that’s a region that could make this list.
1. Region 4-7A: This is a region with four top-10-caliber teams, two that will be sent to Colquitt County and Valdosta in the first round as punishment for not finishing strong. Unranked Archer (5-3, 3-0) surprisingly leads three top-10 teams – No. 7 Newton (7-1, 2-1), No. 9 Parkview (6-2, 2-1) and No. 10 Grayson (6-2, 2-1). The Maxwell Ratings give these odds for the region title: Newton (40.2%), Parkview (31.4%), Archer (20.1%) and Grayson (8.4%). This is the only region in any class in which Maxwell gives the favorite less than a 50/50 chance of winning. Newton and Parkview are favored because they must play only one of the other two. Archer, on the other hand, plays home games against Grayson this week and Newton next week. Grayson must play Archer and Parkview, both on the road. Archer, a 2-8 team last season, initiated this region’s intrigue with its 28-27 upset of 14-point favorite Parkview two weeks ago. Parkview then deepened the plot with a 28-21 upset of 19-point Newton last week. Newton opened region play with a 31-27 victory over defending champion Grayson on Sept. 29.
2. Region 3-2A: This region’s tiebreaker rules call for a “hat draw” if all else fails. That’s where this appears headed. Three of Class 2A’s highest-ranked teams – No. 2 Appling County, No. 3 Pierce County and No. 4 Toombs County – are 1-1 against each other in region play with all games among them decided by three points. The tiebreaker, if they remain knotted, is point differential in region games with a cap of 13 points. That means the Big Three are committed not only to winning but reaching the 13-point threshold against the other four teams in the region. They’re 6-0 in that endeavor so far with six opportunities remaining. Vidalia (5-3, 3-1) is the biggest threat but lost to Appling 33-6 last week. The Indians will try to spit in the tea cups of Pierce and Toombs the next two weeks and enhance their own resume. First place will matter. This region’s No. 1 seed is unlikely to face a ranked team until the quarterfinals and would have twice as good a chance of making the state final as the other two based on draw alone, according to Maxwell.
3. Region 1-7A: Valdosta, seeking its first region title in the highest class since 2011, is playing at No. 3 Colquitt County on Friday for the championship of this five-team region that will leave one team out of the playoffs. Borrowing from the Maxwell Ratings, those remaining teams and their playoff odds are Camden County (91.3%), Richmond Hill (48.6%) and Lowndes (33.6%). Lowndes (4-4, 0-2) plays at Richmond Hill (4-4, 0-2) this week and then at home against Camden (6-3, 1-2). Lowndes has missed the playoffs only twice (2014, 2006) this century. Camden coach Jeff Herron hasn’t missed the playoffs with any of his five schools since 1996 at Wheeler. Camden beat Richmond Hill 35-33 on Oct. 6 but won’t fare well in a three-way tiebreaker if Lowndes loses to Richmond Hill and beats Camden.
4. Region 7-5A: No region has two better, more significant games Friday night than this one, and they will be played 10 miles apart in Bartow County. Dalton (7-2, 3-1) plays at No. 4 Cartersville (9-0, 4-0) with the championship on the line. Dalton hasn’t won a region title since 2016. Fifteen minutes to the north, Calhoun (6-3, 2-2) is playing at Cass (4-5, 1-3) in a loser-go-home game. Calhoun hasn’t missed the playoffs since 1999. Remember that fifth-place Cass lost to first-place Cartersville in overtime on Oct. 6. If higher-standing teams (Cartersville, Calhoun) win, there could be a three-way tie among Calhoun, Dalton and Hiram for seeds 2-4. Each is 1-1 against the other with Calhoun likely holding the best tiebreaker advantages.
5. Region 4-4A: Four teams stand 4-1 in region play. All have been ranked, though only Troup (7-1), at No. 10, is currently in the top 10. The others are LaGrange (6-2), Starr’s Mill (5-3) and Trinity Christian (5-3). Starr’s Mill has played the other three and is the most likely to win out. If that happens, only Trinity Christian can beat out Starr’s Mill (Trinity beat Starr’s Mill 17-10 last month), but Trinity needs to win this week at home against Troup, the defending champion. Troup’s star quarterback, Taeo Todd, is out for the season, but the Tigers might remain the most talented team. As extra incentive to all, the No. 2 seed from this region is likely facing No. 1 Benedictine on the road in the second round. Note that if Starr’s Mill claims the title, it would be the program’s sixth in 10 years but a remarkable fourth while losing a region game.
6. Region 6-4A: It might not contain the most high-profile teams – none is ranked – but this has been the most balanced, competitive on-any-given-Friday-night region in any class since its 2022 inception. Westminster (50.4%) is Maxwell’s favorite to win what would be its first region title since 2016. The Wildcats are followed in odds by Stephenson (30.8%), defending champion Holy Innocents’ (14.0%) and Hapeville Charter (4.7%). All are 2-1 in region play. Westminster is favored in its final two games (Miller Grove, Southwest DeKalb) but lost to Stephenson on Oct. 6. So the big game might be Thursday’s Stephenson-Holy Innocents’ matchup. Stephenson, which hasn’t won a region title since 2019, will emerge as the region favorite with a victory. Holy Innocents’ beat Stephenson 42-14 last year, costing the Jaguars the title.
7. Region 8-3A: Five teams in this region are in Maxwell’s Class 3A top 20, and one won’t make the playoffs. Oconee County plays at No. 2 Stephens County on Friday in what probably will decide the region title. Those two are safe. Hart County (4-4, 2-1) will qualify with one more victory, but it would have to be against Hebron Christian (4-4, 1-2) this week or Monroe Area (4-4, 1-2) next week. Monroe Area hasn’t missed the playoffs since Kevin Reach became its coach in 2017. Hebron coach Jonathan Gess hasn’t missed the playoffs in his 16 years of head coaching, almost all of those with Eagle’s Landing Christian.
8. Region 8-4A: The GHSA hopes a race like this one becomes more common in 2024, when there will be seven classes (instead of eight) and larger regions. Region 8-4A is currently the state’s largest with nine teams that are playing full region schedules. North Oconee has clinched the title in a way that resembled the 1973 Belmont Stakes, but six other teams remain in realistic contention for the other three playoff berths. Madison County and North Hall (6-2, 4-2) appear safe, but recall that Madison County lost to Cedar Shoals 40-36 as a 34-point favorite two weeks ago. Cedar Shoals, Cherokee Bluff and East Forsyth have three region losses apiece. East Forsyth is a third-year school that has never made the playoffs. Walnut Grove (3-5, 2-4) also has a chance.
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