Georgia Tech’s win probability vs. Duke was as low as 9%

Georgia Tech wide receiver Adonicas Sanders (12) hauls in a pass for what proved to be the winning touchdown against Duke cornerback Jeremiah Lewis (39) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

Credit: AP

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Georgia Tech wide receiver Adonicas Sanders (12) hauls in a pass for what proved to be the winning touchdown against Duke cornerback Jeremiah Lewis (39) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)

Credit: AP

In its come-from-behind win over Duke on Saturday, Georgia Tech’s chance at winning was as low as 9% before the Yellow Jackets pulled out the win with quarterback Jeff Sims’ 36-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Adonicas Sanders with 51 seconds remaining in the game, according to ESPN’s win probability calculations.

Credit: ACC

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The Yellow Jackets were a four-point favorite against Duke – but demonstrated that they had the savvy to win on a day when they weren’t at their best.

Credit: ACC

Tech’s probability to win rose as high as 88.8% after Sims’ scored on a 1-yard run to put the Jackets up 14-0 in the first quarter and continued to hover well over 50% for most of the game. However, it began to drop after Duke tied the score at 24-24 with 12:33 left in the fourth quarter and then when the Blue Devils took a 27-24 lead with 5:06 left on Charlie Ham’s 22-yard field goal.

It fell to 9% as Duke tried to run the clock out and, with 2:07 left, a second-and-15 play went for no gain and Tech used its second of three timeouts to preserve time on the clock.

After Tech got the ball back with 1:42 remaining on its own 12-yard line, the Jackets’ chances jumped to 32.3% after Sims’ first completion to Sanders, a 37-yarder. Sims’ incomplete pass to Malachi Carter on second-and-6 from the Duke 6 dropped the probability back down to 27.3%.

But after Sims’ touchdown pass, Tech’s chances flipped to 95.9%, a jump of more than 65 percentage points.

Georgia Tech 31, Duke 27

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