Las Vegas handicappers have installed No. 2 LSU (12-0) as about a touchdown favorite against Georgia (11-1) in Saturday’s SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Based on eye tests alone, there’s a good argument to be made that the game won’t be that close.
Indeed, most of the money seems to be going for the Tigers. Lines that opened Sunday with LSU as a 3.5- to 4-point favorite were up to 7.5 in some betting houses Wednesday.
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However, a closer look at the matchups that will decide this contest reveals that Georgia should have more than a punchers’ chance Saturday.
Yes, LSU’s offense is markedly better than Georgia’s. It’s better than pretty much any offense anywhere. But there are two other phases to the game of football, and an objective breakdown that included consultation with expert observers of both teams give the Bulldogs the edge in those areas.
Georgia, which has been favored in every other game it has played this season, sees that as a whopping intangible in its favor.
“We love being the underdog,” said senior guard Solomon Kindley, who repeated it for emphasis. “We love being the underdog. We love having our backs against the wall. When the Georgia Bulldogs have their backs against the wall, we go harder; we harder in practice, harder in games. We like it when the doubters are out.”
Here’s the breakdown:
QUARTERBACKS
Georgia: Jake Fromm (6-2, 220, Jr.)
LSU: Joe Burrow (6-4, 216, Sr.)
This position probably would have been decided differently at the beginning of the season. There is no quarterback playing college football who has played in more big games on grand stages than Georgia’s Fromm, and he’s played well in those. But Fromm comes in struggling in the passing game, failing to complete 50 percent of his passes even once in the past four games. Conversely, Burrow is a runaway favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after establishing the SEC single-season passing record in addition nearly every LSU offensive record.
EDGE: Tigers
RUNNING BACKS
Georgia: D'Andre Swift (5-9, 215, Jr.), Brian Herrien (6-1, 195, Sr.)
LSU: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5-8, 209, Jr.), John Emery (6-0, 203, Fr.)
Swift was a Heisman contender entering the season and maybe halfway through. But not only is Georgia’s latest 1,000-yard rusher coming in “banged up” with a shoulder injury, but LSU’s Edwards-Helaire has proved unstoppable in the Tigers’ new pass-first offense. He has gained 1,571 yards and scored 17 touchdowns from scrimmage this season. The Bulldogs have an edge in depth, with three backs with more than 300 yards rushing, but LSU gets the nod for firepower.
EDGE: Tigers
OFFENSIVE LINE
Georgia: LT Andrew Thomas (6-5, 320, Jr.), LG Solomon Kindley (6-4, 335, Jr.), C Trey Hill (6-4, 330, So.), RG Ben Cleveland (6-6, 335, Jr.), RT Isaiah Wilson (6-7, 340, So.)
LSU: LT Saahdiq Charles (6-4, 295, Jr.), LG Adrian Magee (6-4, 343, Sr.), C Lloyd Cushenberry (6-4, 315, Jr.), Damien Lewis (6-3, 332, Sr.), Austin Deculus (6-7, 322, Jr.)
The Bulldogs get the edge based on size, pedigree and reputation, but the comparison is much closer than UGA fans probably realize. While LSU’s group did not come to college with nearly the accolades and doesn’t really include a star, per se, they’re an experienced unit that has gotten better under the tutelage of former NFL assistant James Cregg. But the Georgia line, highlighted by All-American Andrew Thomas, is probably relied upon more in both the running and passing games. The Tigers benefit from tempo and quick throws.
EDGE: Georgia
TIGHT ENDS
Georgia: Charlie Woerner (6-5, 250, Sr.), Eli Wolf (6-4, 238, Sr.)
LSU: Thaddeus Moss (6-3, 249, So.), Stephen Sullivan (6-5, 242, Sr.)
This is another position where the objectives make it difficult to compare. At LSU, tight ends are primarily another target in a passing game that features four or five per play. There is no comparing Georgia’s tight ends to Moss, the son of Randy Moss. He has caught 36 passes, a school record for the position, and Tigers’ tight ends have caught more than 50. Conversely, the Bulldogs’ tight ends are block-first players with only occasional pass-catching responsibilities. Woerner had his first career TD catch versus Tech, and Wolf had a 46-yard reception against the Jackets. So you can’t go to sleep against them, and they’re next-level good at blocking on the perimeter.
EDGE: Tigers
WIDE RECEIVER
Georgia: George Pickens (6-3, 190, Fr.), Tyler Simmons (6-0, 201, Sr.), Demetrius Robertson (6-0, 190, Jr.), Kearis Jackson (6-0, 200, RFr.), Dominick Blaylock (6-1, 195, Fr.), Matt Landers (6-5, 200, So.)
LSU: J'Marr Chase (6-1, 200, So.), Justin Jefferson (6-3, 192, Jr.), Terrence Marshall (6-4, 200, So.), Racey McMath (6-3, 221, Jr.)
The Tigers have assembled one of the all-time great receiving corps in SEC history, a fact that has been enhanced by having a Heisman-caliber quarterback at the controls. Nobody has been able to cover Chase, who has 1,457 yards and 17 touchdowns receiving, but it’s Jefferson who gets most of Burrow’s targets. Between them, they have 151 catches for 2,549 yards and 30 TDs. Including Edwards-Helaire, who has 43 receptions, LSU has five players with 32 or more receptions. Pickens leads Georgia with 33 receptions, and he can’t play in the first half Saturday. The Bulldogs are desperate for someone to step up in the absence of Pickens for one half and Lawrence Cager for the rest of the season.
EDGE: Tigers
DEFENSIVE LINE
Georgia: DT Tyler Clark (6-4, 300, Sr.), NG Jordan Davis (6-6, 330, So.), DE David Marshall (6-3, 274, Sr.)
LSU: DE Glen Logan (6-4, 309, Jr.), NT Tyler Shelvin (6-3, 346, So.), DE Rashard Lawrence (6-2, 308, Sr.)
These units are somewhat similar from the standpoint of not having any stars at any position. Though LSU coach Ed Orgeron would beg to differ about Clark. He has raved about UGA’s senior tackle, who leads the down linemen with 24 tackles, 8 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. Clark is one of at least 10 veteran linemen the Bulldogs run in and out of every game, each of them with a specialized role. And lately freshman DE Travon Walker has proved to be hard to block. The Tigers’ defensive front is described by LSU writers as “pretty average.” Shelvin is a difficult matchup in the middle and has batted down three passes. Lawrence is a wily veteran who has been through many SEC battles.
EDGE: Bulldogs
INSIDE LINEBACKERS
Georgia: Tae Crowder (6-3, 235, Sr.), Monty Rice (6-1, 235, Jr.), Quay Walker (6-4, 240, So.), Nakobe Dean (6-0, 220, Fr.)
LSU: Patrick Queen (6-1, 227, Jr.), Jacob Phillips (6-4, 233, Jr.), Damone Clark (6-3, 239, So.), Micah Baskerfield, (6-1, 228, So.)
Queen and Phillips are both extremely productive, with 90 and 65 tackles, respectively. And Clark, a sophomore backup, has come on the second half of the season and turned in his best game of his career Saturday against Texas A&M. But otherwise, depth is an issue, and Queen and Phillips stay on the field a lot. Conversely, Georgia rotates liberally at its inside linebacker position, with the exception of Rice, who stays on the field most of the time. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have developed very specialized roles from the backups Dean and Walker and Channing Tindall. They also sub in defensive backs, depending on down and distance. Overall, Georgia has a deeper and more versatile group.
EDGE: Bulldogs
OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS
Georgia: Walter Grant (6-4, 245, Jr.), Jermaine Johnson (6-5, 240, Jr.), Adam Anderson (6-5, 225, So.), Azeez Ojulari (6-3, 240, RFr.), Nolan Smith (6-3, 235, Fr.), Robert Beal (6-4, 244, So.)
LSU: Damone Clark (6-3, 239, So.), Andre Anthony (6-4, 250, Jr.), K'Lavon Chaisson (6-4, 250, So.), Andre Anthony (6-4, 250, Jr.)
LSU’s frontline players are very talented and productive, led by Chaisson, who leads the outside ‘backers with 48 tackles. But the Tigers are playing without their best OLB in Michael Divinity, who was suspended the week of the Alabama game, because of LSU marijuana-policy violations, and is not expected to return until the national championship game, at the earliest. Georgia also utilizes liberal rotation here. Ojulari plays most downs, but others come in and out of the game regularly based on situations. Smith, a 5-star recruit, has proved an asset in both pass-rush and coverage.
EDGE: Bulldogs
SECONDARY
Georgia: CB Eric Stokes (6-1, 185, RSo.), CB D.J. Daniel (6-1, 185, Jr.), Star Mark Webb (6-1, 200, Jr.), LS Richard LeCounte (5-11, 190, Jr.), RS J.R. Reed (6-1, 194, Sr.)
LSU: CB Derek Stingley (6-1, 190, Fr.), CB Kristian Fulton (6-0, 200, Sr.), S Grant Delpit (6-3, 203, Jr.), S Jacoby Stevens (6-1, 228, Jr.)
The Tigers fancy themselves as “DBU,” a self-proclaimed title of which several other schools take issue. But they do have their star power this year, with the All-American Delpit in the back end, the freshman Stingley leading the SEC in pass break-ups (18) and had made four interceptions. The experienced Fulton holds up his corner of the field. They lead the nation in passes defended and five players among the SEC’s top 20 in that category, but they have been vulnerable to explosive plays. The Tigers rank 42nd in the nation in “long scrimmage plays allowed” (156), and they’ve given up 27 plays of 40 or more yards. Georgia is No. 2 in the nation that stat, allowing 11. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs sub a lot according to situations. And bringing Tyson Campbell, Tyrique Stevenson and Divaad Wilson off the bench on passing downs gives Georgia a shot against LSU spread-to-pass offense.
EDGE: None
SPECIAL TEAMS
GEORGIA: PK Rodrigo Blankenship (6-1, 191, Sr.), P Jake Camarda (6-2, 180, So.), PR Dominick Blaylock (6-1, 195, Fr.), KR Brian Herrien (6-0, 210, Sr.)
LSU: PK Cade York (6-2, 189, Fr.), P Zach Von Rosenberg (6-5, 240, Jr.), PR Derek Stingley (6-1, 190, Fr.), KR Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5-8, 209, Jr.)
The Tigers have found themselves a great kicker in the freshman York, who is 18-of-21 on field-goal attempts this season and made two 50-yarders against Texas A&M. He’s also made 70 PATs, which sounds great until one realizes he’s attempted 74. But York is a weapon. There is no greater kicker in the game than Blankenship, however, and that’s especially true when it comes to big kicks in meaningful games. He certainly wants to atone for a short kick he missed in The Benz last year against Alabama, which didn’t seem significant at the time, but was. Camarda (47.3) gets a slight edge over LSU’s guy, who has punted only 37 times all season for a 42.6 average. The returners cancel out.
EDGE: Bulldogs
INTANGIBLES
As Solomon Kindley pointed out, Georgia likes its role as an underdog, while LSU is certainly one of the hot teams in college football. The Bulldogs have the experience of playing their fourth game in the last three seasons inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but the battle-tested Tigers aren't likely to be overwhelmed by any atmosphere, and their fans will certainly contribute to it. As for coaches, probably no one not named Nick Saban has as much experience preparing teams for momentous games than Georgia's Kirby Smart. Ed Orgeron can't make the same claim, but his coaching staff has the edge in experience and pay scale. This another close matchup in a game that features many.
EDGE: None
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