NEW YORK (AP) — The 157 free agents:
American League
BALTMORE (6) — Wei-Yin Chen, lhp; Chris Davis, 1b; Darren O'Day, rhp; Gerardo Parra, of; Steve Pearce, of; Matt Wieters, c.
BOSTON (2) — Craig Breslow, lhp; Rich Hill, lhp.
CHICAGO (5) — Matt Albers, rhp; Gordon Beckham, 3b; Alexei Ramirez, ss; Jeff Samardzija, rhp; Geovany Soto, c.
CLEVELAND (4) — Mike Aviles, inf-of; Gavin Floyd, rhp; Ryan Raburn, dh; Ryan Webb, rhp.
DETROIT (6) — Alex Avila, c; Rajai Davis, of; Tom Gorzelanny, lhp; Joe Nathan, rhp; Alfredo Simon, rhp; Randy Wolf, lhp.
HOUSTON (6) — Scott Kazmir, lhp; Oliver Perez, lhp; Chad Qualls, rhp; Colby Rasmus, of; Tony Sipp, lhp; Joe Thatcher, lhp.
KANSAS CITY (8) — Johnny Cueto, rhp; Alex Gordon, of; Jeremy Guthrie, rhp; Ryan Madson, rhp; Franklin Morales, lhp; Alex Rios, of; Chris Young, rhp; Ben Zobrist, 2b.
LOS ANGELES (7) — David Freese, 3b; Chris Iannetta, c; Matt Joyce, of; Mat Latos, rhp; David Murphy, of; Shane Victorino, of; Wesley Wright, lhp.
MINNESOTA (5) — Blaine Boyer, rhp; Neal Cotts, lhp; Brian Duensing, lhp; Torii Hunter, of; Mike Pelfrey, rhp.
NEW YORK (3) — Chris Capuano, lhp; Stephen Drew, 2b; Chris Young, of.
OAKLAND (2) — Edward Mujica, rhp; Barry Zito, lhp.
SEATTLE (3) — Joe Beimel, lhp; Franklin Gutierrez, of; Hisashi Iwakuma, rhp.
TAMPA BAY (3) — Asdrubal Cabrera, ss; John Jaso, dh; Grady Sizemore, of.
TEXAS (6) — Yovani Gallardo, rhp; Colby Lewis, rhp; Mike Napoli, 1b; Ross Ohlendorf, rhp; Drew Stubbs, of; Will Venable, of.
TORONTO (10) — Mark Buehrle, lhp; Marco Estrada, rhp; Jeff Francis, lhp; Maicer Izturis, 2b; LaTroy Hawkins, rhp; Munenori Kawasaki, inf; Mark Lowe, rhp; Dioner Navarro, c; Cliff Pennington, ss; David Price, lhp.
National League
ARIZONA (2) — David Hernandez, rhp; Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c.
ATLANTA (4) — Ross Detwiler, lhp; Edwin Jackson, rhp; Peter Moylan, rhp; A.J. Pierzynski, c.
CHICAGO (8) — Trevor Cahill, rhp; Chris Denorfia, of; Dexter Fowler, of; Dan Haren, rhp; Tommy Hunter, rhp; Austin Jackson, of; Jason Motte, rhp; Fernando Rodney, rhp.
CINCINNATI (5) — Burke Badenhop, rhp; Sean Marshall, lhp; Manny Parra, lhp; Brayan Pena, c; Skip Schumaker, inf-of.
COLORADO (2) — Kyle Kendrick, rhp; Justin Morneau, 1b.
LOS ANGELES (4) — Brett Anderson, lhp; Zack Greinke, rhp; Howie Kendrick, 2b; Jimmy Rollins, ss.
MIAMI (3) — Don Kelly, 3b; Jeff Mathis, c; Casey McGehee, 3b.
MILWAUKEE (1) — Kyle Lohse, rhp.
NEW YORK (9) — Jerry Blevins, lhp; Yoenis Cespedes, of; Tyler Clippard, rhp; Bartolo Colon, rhp; Kelly Johnson, of; Daniel Murphy, 2b; Eric O'Flaherty, lhp; Bobby Parnell, rhp; Juan Uribe, 3b.
PHILADELPHIA (5) — Chad Billingsley, rhp; Jeff Francoeur, of; Aaron Harang, rhp; Cliff Lee, lhp; Jerome Williams, rhp.
PITTSBURGH (8) — Antonio Bastardo, lhp; Joe Blanton, rhp; A.J. Burnett, rhp; J.A. Happ, lhp; Corey Hart, 1b; Aramis Ramirez, 3b; Sean Rodriguez, inf-of; Joakim Soria, rhp.
ST. LOUIS (7) — Matt Belisle, rhp; Jonathan Broxton, rhp; Randy Choate, lhp; Jason Heyward, of; John Lackey, rhp; Mark Reynolds, 1b-3b; Carlos Villanueva, rhp.
SAN DIEGO (7) — Clint Barmes, ss; Josh Johnson, rhp; Shawn Kelley, rhp; Ian Kennedy, rhp; Brandon Morrow, rhp; Bud Norris, rhp; Justin Upton, of.
SAN FRANCISCO (8) — Jeremy Affeldt, lhp; Marlon Byrd, of; Alejandro De Aza, of; Tim Hudson, rhp; Mike Leake, rhp; Tim Lincecum, rhp; Marco Scutaro, 2b; Ryan Vogelsong, rhp.
WASHINGTON (8) — Ian Desmond, ss; Doug Fister, rhp; Casey Janssen, rhp; Nate McLouth, of; Denard Span, of; Matt Thornton, lhp; Dan Uggla, 2b; Jordan Zimmermann, rhp.
In August and September, as Yoenis Cespedes went on an offensive tear that helped carry the New York Mets to the postseason, the dollar figures bandied about for what he might earn as a free agent became comical. A Cuban-born outfielder who made his major league debut in 2012, Cespedes has been around long enough for most of the baseball world to be plenty familiar with him, but he was suddenly on his way to 35 home runs and a contract worth the gross domestic product of a midsize country.
There is no question that the midseason trade to the Mets improved Cespedes’ position as a free agent. But when October rolled round, the streaky slugger reminded everyone of his volatility by scuffling through much of the playoffs.
The biggest names available include pitchers Zack Greinke, David Price, Johnny Cueto and outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. But one of the most intriguing questions will be whether teams will base their evaluation of Cespedes on the 57 regular-season games he played for the Mets, or the preceding 518 games.
In truth, Cespedes, while valuable, has plenty of flaws. At 30, he has a reliance on power above contact that makes him unlikely to age particularly well as a hitter. His great 2015 season came after a two-season stretch in which he hit a combined .251 with a .298 on-base percentage, making him less valuable than the 48 home runs he hit in those seasons would suggest. His defense can be spectacular from a corner outfield position, but he was miscast as a center fielder for the Mets.
If a team were looking to make a nine-figure investment, it would be far better off with Heyward of the St. Louis Cardinals.
At 26, a rare age for a player to reach free agency, Heyward is among the best defensive players in baseball and a productive hitter, even if he has not quite lived up to expectations. Those came even before he hit the third pitch of his major league career, from Carlos Zambrano, more than 430 feet to right field.
Heyward is especially intriguing because of his potential, but even if he does not improve, one can argue that he is the superior player. By wins above replacement, Heyward edged Cespedes this season, 6.5 to 6.3. The difference was more stark last season when Heyward topped Cespedes, 6.2 to 4.1. And as Heyward is just entering his prime, the difference can grow larger still.
Much of Heyward’s value comes from his play in the outfield, where he has 92 defensive runs saved overall since 2012 (Cespedes has 15). He has also been a better hitter than some might realize. Adjusted for league and home ballpark, Cespedes has been 22 percent better than the average batter, according to Baseball-Reference, while Heyward has been 14 percent better. Heyward has also been more disruptive as a runner, with 43 steals in 50 attempts during the last two seasons to Cespedes’ 14 in 21 attempts.
Both players are likely to receive contracts of $100 million or more — perhaps far more — but four or five years down the road, the team that signs Heyward is likely to be much happier with the contract.
The top tier
Beyond Heyward, who represents the greatest reward, if not the most value, the top free agent available is Greinke.
The 2009 American League Cy Young winner, Greinke is 32 and just had the best season of his career with a 1.66 earned run average in more than 220 innings.
Greinke signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent, and over three seasons he has been better than they could have anticipated, going 51-15 with a 2.3 ERA in 92 starts. It would be wise for him to re-sign in Los Angeles, where he is comfortable, but any team would be lucky to have him.
Price, 30, is just a hair behind Greinke no matter how much teams are turned off by his postseason struggles. Beginning with his dominant third season for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010, Price has been incredible in the vast majority of his 189 regular-season starts, so judging him on eight postseason starts would be unwise.
Worth the investment
There are a number of players below the top tier who can help a team win but for a variety of reasons will not command deals quite as large. The list includes three key members of the Kansas City Royals.
Ben Zobrist, who can play in the infield and the outfield, has quietly been among the most productive players in baseball since 2009, with his 39.3 WAR trailing only Robinson Cano’s, Miguel Cabrera’s, Adrian Beltre’s and Joey Votto’s in that time. But he got off to a rocky start this season with Oakland before a trade sent him to Kansas City, and at 34, may be closing out his prime.
Alex Gordon’s stock has always been volatile, but at 31 he is a three-time All-Star and a quality defensive player who helps a team in many ways. He missed 58 games this year but was remarkably durable over the four previous seasons.
Johnny Cueto went from being one of the best pitchers in the National League over several seasons to being a huge disappointment for the Royals after a midseason trade. But when he became the first American League pitcher since 1991 to throw a complete game win in the World Series, he probably did enough to erase any doubts that had crept in about his ability. At 29, he could provide as much value as Greinke or Price, if he finds the right situation.
Other productive players available, if imperfect, include Upton, first baseman Chris Davis, pitchers Hisashi Iwakuma and Jordan Zimmermann, outfielder Colby Rasmus, and second baseman Howie Kendrick.
Players to avoid
It is not uncommon for a player to inflate his value artificially after a dominant stretch of play, but Daniel Murphy of the Mets is an extreme example. Well established as someone who can give a team about 2 WAR a season with moderate power and adequate defense, Murphy confused everyone thoroughly with a terrific postseason in which he flashed so much power that it was surprising when his at-bats did not end in home runs. But at 30 years old, and with no reason to believe his power surge was anything but an aberration, Murphy seems like a great example of a player who will almost assuredly disappoint any team hoping he can play that way regularly.
At least with Murphy, the inflated contract would be a result of something he did. For Matt Wieters, a large contract would be based on little more than his name and the persistent belief that he can eventually put everything together. It is easy to see how teams would find a switch-hitting catcher with enough power to hit 20 home runs intriguing, but he has played in only 101 of Baltimore’s last 324 games, and in 2013, which was the last time he played a full season, he was a below average hitter in terms of adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage despite his 22 home runs. Wieters will turn 30 in the second month of the season, and while he may return to the player he was in 2011 and 2012, it is hard to believe it will last for long.
Perhaps the biggest head scratcher in terms of value is Scott Kazmir. He may be only 31, but few players have experienced as many highs or lows. A dominant first half with Oakland had him primed for a big payday, but he faltered drastically after a trade to Houston, and that combined with his complicated health history — his only season of 200 or more innings came in 2007 — should at the very least give teams pause.
