There’s understandable concern about what the Hawks’ lineup will look like next season because impending free agents Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll suddenly find themselves as flavors of the month — and good vibes and 60-win seasons still aren’t worth more than the digits in a contract. ’Merica.
But the initial concern is the Hawks’ off-court lineup. If we assume for a moment that the sale of the team to the Tony Ressler group goes through in the next few weeks, leaving only grease spots under the high chairs that occupied the Atlanta Spirit’s screaming infant partners, the first major decision will be about general manager Danny Ferry.
Many believe that decision already has been made. Despite so much time having passed since the regrettable Luol Deng conference call and the long, expensive public-relations campaign that Ferry’s camp orchestrated in hopes of paving the way for his return, there’s a belief Ferry won’t be back. This isn’t a debate about whether Ferry is good at his job, but rather if the organization can function just fine without him and avoid the PR hit of bringing him back.
Rich guy’s rule of thumb: Don’t spend $730 million on something and then have your first decision turn into a dumpster fire.
Until Ressler takes over and makes a public declaration — or unless that decision is announced before he steps in — nobody can be certain of what happens. But if the Hawks do this right, they will be set up nicely for the future. Despite the ugly ending in the Eastern Conference finals against Cleveland, they have established a new identity on the court and attracted new fans in Atlanta’s fickle sports market.
The Millsap and Carroll negotiations will play out over the next several weeks. (Free agency begins July 1.) But until then, here are some issues that need to be resolved:
Who's in charge (part I): Grant Hill will have a minority share of ownership. It seems logical that Hill, a former college and NBA star with a pristine reputation and an African American, also will emerge from this with a title. But as general manager? Probably not. But he could be a high-profile voice in the room.
Who's in charge (part II): If Ferry isn't retained, Ressler and/or Hill will have the option of either keeping coach/interim general manager Mike Budenholzer and assistant general manager Wes Wilcox as the principals in basketball operations or going outside to hire a new GM. Budenholzer will get a new contract and possibly more power. Wilcox's future is less certain. Key questions: Does new ownership already have a new general manager in mind? Would they want to make drastic changes in the first year?
Budenholzer has enormous leverage right now. I asked him an admittedly unfair question: If Ferry isn’t back, would he feel prepared with more autonomy?
“I think it’s inappropriate right now to think or talk about that,” he said. “We’ll be prepared and we’ll discuss and we’ll make decisions whenever it’s appropriate.”
Pause.
“And my opinion of myself doesn’t matter that much.”
When asked if it’s difficult to plan for the future on the court, given the uncertainty, he issued the standard non-response:“The thing we’ve tried to do all year is just do our jobs and work and prepare and plan regardless of what’s happening around us.”
Do you know something we don’t know?
“No, I don’t. There’s no new news ad no resolution? I have nothing.”
What should next season's Hawks look like? Once front-office structure is resolved, the Hawks need to ask themselves if this group can get to the next level. It's logical to think that a healthy Hawks team would've posed a greater challenge to Cleveland, but nobody can ignore that the Cavaliers played without Kevin Love and, for two games, Kyrie Irving.
Before monetary decisions on Millsap and Carroll are made, it must be determined if the Hawks want to alter their structure. Do they need to get bigger? If so, does Al Horford move from center to power forward, and what would that mean for Millsap (who likely can’t defend small forwards).
Horford has only one year left on his contract. Kyle Korver referred to Horford as the “cornerstone” of the franchise during the playoffs. But it’s best for the Hawks to decide that now or entertain trade offers.
Millsap was the Hawks’ best player for most of this season, so he’ll probably be a higher priority to sign than Carroll. But do you pay Millsap (who made $9.5 million this season) more than Horford (who makes $12 million next season)?
Carroll was the team’s best player in the postseason and basically played the Cleveland series on one leg. But his salary may leap on the open market from his current bargain price of $2.5 million to between $8 million and $10 million. Is he worth that to the Hawks?
Budenholzer said he wants everybody back. “We really like this group, the way it’s built, with Al and Paul as our bigs,” he said. “We are not looking for something different. We really feel like we have more, we can give more, there’s more to be done, with the team constituted (this) way.”
But the equation isn’t that simple.
