Such is the greatness of Craig Kimbrel that his failures are more noteworthy than his successes. Blown saves Nos. 1-3 of 2013 were memorable in that they came over 15 days and five appearances; Kimbrel blew only three saves in 2012, no two in a single month.
When the best reliever in the business stubs his toe that often in that short a time, the knee-jerk response is to ask: Is he hurt? After examining video evidence — thanks, MLB.com — of the three blown saves, it's fair to say there's nothing wrong with Kimbrel's arm. He's still throwing really hard. Going chronologically:
April 24, two out, two on, first pitch to the Rockies' Dexter Fowler: Catcher Evan Gattis gives a floating target, but Kimbrel's 95-mph fastball comes in close to where Gattis' mitt settles — low and inside. Fowler inside-outs the pitch. Justin Upton gets turned around in left field. The ball falls for a tying two-run double.
May 3, one out, none on, 2-2 count against the Mets' David Wright: Gattis appears to want the ball high and inside. (With Gattis, it's hard to tell.) Kimbrel's 97-mph fastball comes in high and toward the middle of the plate and, at the last instant, darts into Wright's bat. Extending his arms, Wright drives the pitch an estimated 464 feet to right-center.
May 7, two out, none on, 3-2 count against the Reds' Devin Mesoraco: Brian McCann sets his mitt low and inside. Kimbrel's 96-mph fastball is a hair toward the middle. Mesoraco, without a home run this season, golfs it the other way. The ball lands in the first row 30 feet to the right of center. Even the Reds' broadcasting Brennamans, Marty on radio and Thom on TV, sound surprised it's a home run. It wouldn't have been one at Turner Field.
May 7, two out, none on, 2-1 count against the Reds' Shin-Soo Choo: McCann wants the ball low and outside. Kimbrel's 96-mph fastball arrives even lower. Getting out in front, Choo hoists it 414 feet to left-center. (No cheapie, this.) Says Reds TV analyst Chris Welsh: "Again, not a bad pitch by Kimbrel, down around the knees."
In sum: Four extra-base hits, all on fastballs of at least 95 mph, all four driven to the opposite field, three of them down in the strike zone to left-handed batters. The pitch to Mesoraco wasn't great; the pitch to Wright wound up being downright inviting. Still, there was nothing in our review to suggest King Kimbrel has lost his mojo. (To wit: None of the four pulled his fastball.)
But here's where our friends at the sabermetric sites prove invaluable. Writes Daniel Rathman of Baseball Prospectus: "Kimbrel has leaned more heavily on his fastball this year, a significant hike from 67 percent to 80 percent, and his whiff rates on his heater and curveball are down 6-8 percentage points each, according to his Brooks Baseball card."
What made Kimbrel halfway unhittable last season — we mean this literally; opponents struck out 50.2 of the time, an all-time best — was that his curveball was as wicked as his fastball. As per Brooks Baseball, a higher percentage of Kimbrel curves (21.78) yielded strikeouts in 2012 than did Kimbrel fastballs (20.57).
Brooks Baseball informs us that Kimbrel is throwing a higher percentage of fastballs in almost every count. Last year he threw first-pitch curves to left-handed hitters 23 percent of the time; this year it’s 15 percent. (The lefty Fowler hit a first-pitch fastball.) To right-handed hitters with the count even, Kimbrel threw fastballs 70 percent of the time in 2012; this year it’s 20 percent. (The righty Wright hit a 2-2 fastball.)
When you throw as hard as Kimbrel, it’s natural to err on the side of gas. But lots of guys throw hard. What made Kimbrel peerless was his ability to mix a big heat with bigger breakers. Four times in three blown saves, he has been undone by a fastball. As of May 7, he already had yielded as many homers as he did all last season. As Welsh said of Mesoraco’s modest clout: “All you’ve got to do is put the wood to it — Kimbrel provides the power with that fastball.”
Obvious tweak: More curveballs, please. But here, just to be fair, we should realize what we witnessed in 2012. Jack Moore of FanGraphs notes that opponents last season batted .000 against Kimbrel with none on and two out. On one May night in Cincinnati, two Reds facing that scenario hit back-to-back home runs.
Meaning: It can happen to the best. What makes Kimbrel the best is that it took so long to happen to him.
