March 11, 2018 Atlanta: Atlanta United midfielder Jeff Larentowiz (center) and teammates react as a shot by teammate Hector Villalba (far left) gets past D.C. United goalkeeper David Ousted for a 3-0 lead during the second half in a MLS soccer match on Sunday, March 11, 2018, in Atlanta. Atlanta United won the game 3-1. Curtis Compton/ccompton@ajc.com
Photo: ccompton@ajc.com/Curtis Compton
Photo: ccompton@ajc.com/Curtis Compton

Atlanta United remains favorite to win MLS Cup

Atlanta United is predicted to win the MLS Cup, but not the Supporters’ Shield, according to the website FiveThirtyEight.com.

The Five Stripes have a 21 percent probability of winning the MLS Cup and a 34 percent probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield.

The Red Bulls have a 37 percent probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield and 18 percent probability of winning the MLS Cup.

Atlanta United leads MLS in points (48), with Red Bulls (47) and NYCFC (47) its closest pursuers. The Red Bulls’ higher probability of winning the Supporters’ Shield can be traced to it playing one fewer game than Atlanta United so far. That game will be made up within the next two weeks.

Atlanta United will host Columbus (11-7-6) on Sunday and will play at Orlando (7-15-2) on Aug. 24.

The Red Bulls will play at Vancouver (9-9-6) on Saturday, at NYCFC (14-5-5) on Wednesday and will host D.C. United (6-9-6) on Aug. 26.

The website predicts that Atlanta United and Red Bulls will each finish with 66 points, three fewer than the historic mark of 69 set last season by Toronto.

Interestingly, the website calculates Sporting KC with the highest probability (12 percent) among Western Conference teams of winning the MLS Cup. Dallas, which is atop the West with 42 points to KC’s 39, is tied with Portland with a 6 percent probability of winning the league.

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