Braves potential trade target: Jeremy Peña
The Braves need to address shortstop again this winter. Those plans might include re-signing beloved utilityman Mauricio Dubón, but the free-agent market is otherwise weak at the position. The trade market offers a few interesting proven commodities.
Among them, Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña. The 2022 World Series MVP will play nearly the entire upcoming season at age 29 before entering free agency. He’s slashed .272 with a .748 OPS over his five-year career. He’s posted consecutive seasons with an OPS over .800. He’s twice stolen 20 bases.
Peña isn’t an elite talent, but he’s well-rounded with a reliable track record. And he’s done it in meaningful games, including a career .286 average with a .789 OPS across 28 postseason contests.
Houston, like the Braves, tends to pass on signing mega contracts. Peña is poised for a significant payday on a multi-year commitment, so it’s possible the Astros trade him before his walk year as they did with outfielder Kyle Tucker two years ago. Houston could get assets in return while reshaping its club. The acquiring team would plug one of the game’s better shortstops into its lineup for a hopeful contending year.
Could that team be the Braves? Outside speculation has linked the parties, though that’s just natural conversation given their need at the position. Here’s a look at the cases for and against acquiring Peña:
The case for a Peña trade
There’s no doubt the Braves are instantly a better team with Peña. He’d be the club’s best shortstop since Dansby Swanson, with the upside of having one of the best Braves shortstop seasons this millennium. He addresses multiple needs, turning a major hole into a strength. He immediately upgrades the offense. He’s also a proven postseason performer, something the Braves need.
Peña’s trade cost won’t be prohibitive because he’s a rental. It would require a healthy package, but not a prospect bounty. He could be the best fit among trade candidates for that reason. For instance, if the Angels trade Zach Neto, he’s sure to command a hefty return. If the Rangers trade Corey Seager, there are a lot of financial and injury considerations. Peña doesn’t carry those downsides. He’s also projected to make around $13 million in arbitration, which is easily affordable for the Braves.
The Braves don’t often go for rentals. In this case, they might be OK. They could start Peña for a season, helping maximize their 2027 outlook, then turn to one of their youngsters after he departs in free agency. Tate Southisene continues to impress, putting him on track for an earlier debut than some might’ve anticipated. If the Braves keep Dubón, they’d have him as shortstop insurance as well. If the sport’s financial landscape is in a much different place after the lockout, perhaps the Braves have a more realistic chance of extending.
The bottom line is the 2027 Braves would be better with a difference-making shortstop – this team is in win-now mode with key players in their prime – and they could add one here without severely damaging their farm system. Their infield prospects would ease the blow if they lost him after one season. The situation aligns for the Braves to be advantageous. There’s no guarantee this winning window remains open in 2028 or 2029.
Former Astros general manager Dana Brown recently rejoined the Braves’ front office, so he’d be a valuable resource for Peña insight.
The case against a Peña trade
It starts with the cost and his contractual status. Obviously, surrendering better prospects for a rental is not ideal. We mentioned the acquisition cost in the justification for making the deal, but it can also be an argument against it. It’s subjective; from how one evaluates the potentially traded prospects to weighing Peña’s value versus the alternatives. GMs are like fans in that they have varying opinions of prospects and different levels of willingness to move them.
From that standpoint, the Braves preach sustainability. They take pride in building internally. But they were willing to move top prospects for a rental starter in Tarik Skubal, so perhaps they view Peña as impactful enough to justify the price. This isn’t the type of move they typically make, and while it frustrates fans at times, it’s helped result in sustainable success.
Peña is a Boras Corp. client who almost certainly will test his value in free agency next winter. He’ll be 30 years old seeking a sizable multi-year pact (regardless of the sport’s salary rules by that time). A good platform year would have him rocketing towards a significant contract. Peña has better numbers than Swanson did when he landed a seven-year, $177 million deal with the Cubs a few winters ago at age 28.
In the simplest layout, Swanson had 14.9 bWAR from 2016 through 2022 (827 games); Peña has 22.2 bWAR in 680 games with a season to play. Peña has consecutive seasons exceeding an .800 OPS, something Swanson has achieved once in a full season. Both players have contributed to a World Series winner. Boras is sure to market Peña earning MVP honors in 2022.
In other words, he’d likely just be a stopgap here, especially if the season goes as he’d hope. The Braves already have plenty of long-term salary on the books, including contracts for Austin Riley and Spencer Strider that haven’t been worthwhile in recent seasons. And with young infielders excelling in the minors, there’s little motivation to splurge on a shortstop. If they did, there’s an argument to swing for someone with more contractual control. Otherwise, the Braves are once again stuck with a gap at shortstop when Peña leaves.
Swanson was an elite defender, which was crucial in maximizing his earnings. Peña regressed defensively last season and needs to get back to his previous form to do the same. He had minus-5 defensive runs saved in 2026, per FanGraphs, a steep fall for a former Gold Glover (2022) who’d generally been solid defensively in the years prior. The Braves have always prioritized defense at this position, so if they pursued Peña, one would assume there’d be confidence in him getting back to above-average defensively.
The Braves need offense, so it’s easy to argue Peña as a two-birds-with-one-stone addition. But would they be better served investing the prospects and money elsewhere, perhaps instead re-signing and starting Dubón, then reallocating the remaining resources? Of course, there could be room for both players.
If Dubón isn’t in place, the Braves would face yet another winter with shortstop uncertainty entering 2028. There’s no guarantee any of their prospects progress, certainly to the point they’d be comfortable starting one as a bright-eyed rookie during a season in which the team would still be expecting to contend.
There is the looming uncertainty of the 2027 season, but we analyze these scenarios understanding a trade likely couldn’t come to fruition until after the lockout. It’d be risky to trade for a rental before Dec. 1 not knowing the season’s outlook. If it’s a shorter season, does that make a club less inclined to invest in somebody on an expiring deal?
Ultimately, those fading the Peña idea don’t need to extend their argument past the prospect cost and rental realities. This would be different from how the Braves typically operate. Peña would be the best one-year rental the team has acquired since outfielder J.D. Drew (also a Boras client) in December 2003. That deal infamously cost them pitching prospect Adam Wainwright. The Braves have acquired some short-term talent since, but not to this degree with just one season of control remaining.
The bottom line
One’s view of the Peña case depends on how they value the outgoing prospects, how they feel about the shortstop alternatives and their appetite for throwing chips on the table for 2027.
Ultimately, the more “Braves route” would be retaining Dubón and addressing other positions. But if the team keeps outfielder Jurickson Profar, they’ll be limited in how else to improve their offense. Simply keeping Dubon and adding Profar isn’t enough for a club that needs a more sizable offensive boost (of course, they might not see it that way).
Peña would fit nicely and improve the Braves’ immediate odds. The answer we don’t have: What’s the price? Who are the other options? Time will tell – perhaps months from now due to the sport’s unfortunate situation – but the Braves will surely be considering Peña if the Astros plan to move him.