Weekend Predictions: Georgia can’t overlook rejuvenated Florida

Weekend Predictions is bloody, but unbowed, because the Falcons are inspiring me for a change. If they can surprise everyone by coming back from the abyss, then I can do it, too.

My season record picking games against the spread is barely above break-even after three straight losing weeks. The Falcons made me look foolish for siding against them last weekend. Georgia Tech made me look goofy for siding with them.

At least I can still count on Kirk Cousins to come through for me when I pick against him. It felt just like old times.

Falcons (+2½) at Buccaneers

Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield worked together for two seasons in Cleveland. Reporters asked Mayfield this week if he’s talked to Stefanski since he got the Falcons job. “I haven’t talked to him since 2021,” Mayfield said, reiterating his previous claim that Stefanski didn’t call him after the Browns traded him in 2022.

Mayfield’s feelings about this game are less important than the status of the thumb on his throwing hand. Mayfield missed three games after suffering a dislocation and didn’t have to pass much (11 attempts for 64 yards and a TD) during the blowout victory over the Panthers on Sunday. His thumb presumably will be better a week later, and Tampa Bay’s defense is legit. I’m backing the Bucs.

No. 17 Florida (+12½) vs. No. 3 Georgia (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

LSU’s Lane Kiffin has been disappointingly muted this year, so I’m looking elsewhere for a coach to liven up the self-serious SEC. Florida’s Jon Sumrall might be the guy. “You know, some people might say the Florida fans are crazy,” Sumrall told CBS Sports. “The good news is so am I. We’re equally yoked in that regard probably.”

It was easy to write off the Gators after they took back-to-back beatings from Missouri and South Carolina, but then they won at Texas. It’s tempting to treat Georgia’s loss to Auburn as a mistake-filled fluke, but the Bulldogs got bullied at the line of scrimmage. I’m picking Georgia because Florida’s defense is still suspect.

Georgia Tech (+7½) at Pittsburgh

There’s another postgame handshake controversy involving Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi. Miami coach Mario Cristobal was wrong to (seemingly) shove Narduzzi on Saturday, just as former Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins was wrong to angrily brush off Narduzzi in 2020. But I don’t feel bad for Narduzzi about the coaches dissing him because of his self-admitted boorish behavior, including publicly throwing his players under the bus.

Tech supporters don’t have to worry about Brent Key embarrassing the program. Everything else is open to question. The Jackets are 2-5 after last weekend’s awful loss at home to Boston College. I’m counting on Tech’s defense finding new life because Pitt’s offense has cratered since quarterback Mason Heintschel suffered a season-ending injury. Give me the Jackets and the points.

Coastal Carolina (+6) at Georgia State

Georgia State was 4-20 over the past two seasons with coach Dell McGee. Now the Panthers (4-3, 1-2 Sun Belt) have a better chance of making a bowl game than Georgia Tech. GSU is 3-0 at Center Parc Stadium this season and has two more games there after this one. The Panthers are my pick.

Other college games of interest

Auburn (+13½) at No. 12 Ole Miss

At least Auburn coach Alex Golesh got to enjoy the victory over Georgia for one week. The Tigers followed that big road win with a 38-17 home loss to LSU that really wasn’t that close. “We’ve had the highs of highs so far, and that would be the low of lows,” Golesh said. He’s got this game and the Iron Bowl on the road to go, so things can always get lower. Ole Miss is my pick.

No. 1 Miami (-14) at North Carolina

North Carolina coach Bill Belichick told WRAL that the ACC should add more cameras in stadiums after Syracuse beat his team with a two-point conversion that was upheld on replay review. Belichick is right, and he can help the ACC by drawing on his extensive experience overseeing the installation of cameras. Miami might be looking ahead to the game at No. 5 Notre Dame next week but, if so, I don’t think it will matter. I’m backing the ‘Canes.

No. 2 Ohio State (-6½) at USC

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (shoulder) is out. Backups Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair have never started a college game. Coach Ryan Day’s comment about star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith sounds like a wish and a prayer: “You just gotta get it somewhere in the neighborhood of No. 4, and he’s gonna pull it down.” I’m backing the Buckeyes because they still have a great defense.

Clemson (+6) at Florida State

Clemson has scored only two touchdown passes in seven games. Coach Dabo Swinney told reporters he doesn’t regret not pursuing a QB in the transfer portal: “I don’t look back on that type of stuff.” Apparently “the Clemson Way” doesn’t include reflecting on mistakes and trying to learn from them. I’ll take the Tigers and the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Panthers (+3½) at Packers

Dan Parr of NFL.com offers this nugget about the pass protection for Panthers QB Bryce Young: “Young has been pressured on 44.3% of his (dropbacks) against four or fewer pass rushers, the highest rate among qualified passers, and has taken a league-high 15 of his 17 sacks on those plays.” Panthers rookie Monroe Freeling (Georgia) will start at right tackle after Taylor Moton suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7. Green Bay’s pass rush is pretty good. It all adds up to me taking the Packers and giving the points.

Titans (+10) at Bengals

The Falcons host Cincinnati for Week 9 and, unfortunately for them, the Bengals are on the come after a 2-2 start. They won at Miami before their bye week and won at Baltimore after it. The tanking Titans (1-6) should be light work for the Bengals, though you never can know for sure in this league. That was my half-hearted attempt to talk myself into taking the Titans. The Bengals will cover.

Chiefs (-1½) at Broncos

The Falcons host Kansas City in Week 10 and, unfortunately for them, the Chiefs (5-1) are back after missing the playoffs last season. I regret to report that the Broncos, coached by ex-Saints villain Sean Payton, are a serious threat to the Chiefs in the AFC West. He’s why I’m backing Denver with less enthusiasm than I usually have for home ‘dogs.

Last week: 5-6-1. Season: 42-40-3.