It’s possible: How the Braves can upset the Dodgers in NLDS

I’m here to tell you that the Braves can topple the imperial Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS — and no, Ms. Smarty Pants, it does not require Chris Sale to be cloned.

That said, if anyone knows someone…

To defeat the two-time defending world champions in the five-game series that starts Saturday in Los Angeles, the Braves must play even better than they did against Philadelphia in the NL Wild Card Series. Manager Walt Weiss’ club will also need some variables to fall their way.

But it can definitely happen.

Here’s how:

Game 1

Friday, the Dodgers announced Tarik Skubal will start in Saturday’s Game 1, a bit of a surprise over Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

But do you know who’s had a bit of trouble against the Braves in his career?

In two career starts — one this year — Skubal has a 4.91 ERA against the Braves, including three home runs allowed in 11 innings.

Interestingly, the left-handed Skubal has had more trouble with lefty batters than righty.

The Braves’ lefty-heavy lineup with Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and switch-hitting Ozzie Albies — a combined 9-for-20 lifetime against Skubal — could be trouble for a pitcher coming off a layoff.

A conceivable scenario: Riding their first three-homer playoff game since 2022, the Braves ambush Skubal early while the Dodgers’ rusty lineup is kept off balance by a bullpen game.

Game 2

It’s conceivable that Sale’s 21-pitch save in the Game 3 clincher Thursday may require him to be pushed back from Sunday. Before the team left for Los Angeles on Friday, Weiss said that Sale pitching in Game 2 was “on the table” and will depend on how he feels. But no one familiar with his drive and fitness would be surprised if he were ready to go.

In a Sunday night Game 2 matchup, it’s not difficult to envision Sale outdueling Blake Snell or Yamamoto, the Dodgers’ likely Game 2 options. You may recall Sale’s complete-game shutout of the Dodgers at Truist Park in August, a 1-0 win against Yamamoto.

If Sale can’t go?

Well, that would be a tougher ask.

Game 3

As the series moves to Truist Park for the series’ third and fourth games (Tuesday and Wednesday), the possibilities would seem to be either Sale if he didn’t pitch Sunday or Tyler Mahle, so long as he is ready after suffering an abdominal pull before his Game 2 start against the Phillies.

And if Mahle is healthy, what reason is there to think he couldn’t continue his superior performance against the Dodgers (except for that they are one of the best offenses in baseball)?

Including the wild-card start, Mahle now has a 1.91 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Braves at the trade deadline.

And I promise I quintuple-checked this: In two starts covering 14 innings against the Dodgers the past two seasons, Mahle had a 0.00 ERA with a .714 WHIP.

That rates the eyes emoji.

The upshot

Looking at it from a certain perspective, the Braves have a fair chance to win each of the first three games.

If the Braves can take two of those, they will be in position to vanquish the Dodgers by winning one out of Game 4 and 5.

And, if he were to pitch Sunday in Game 2, Sale could be the starter for Game 5 on four days’ rest in Dodger Stadium, where he closed out the 2018 World Series for the Boston Red Sox — someone cue the dramatic music!

The series could hinge on how quickly Sale recovers.

The Braves will need more offensive output against the Dodgers’ staff of aces. Perhaps All-Star Drake Baldwin (2-for-13) can get going. Matt Olson — whose Game 3 home run was his first in his past nine postseason games, dating back to 2023 — could be heating up.

Or maybe it could be a less likely candidate, such as Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Riley.

But, remember: This is a team that excels at rising to the occasion.

In spite of their string of injuries and sporadic slumps, the Braves were 43-29 against teams with records of .500 or better, the second-best winning percentage in baseball. The Dodgers were a middling 38-37.

After the clinching win over Philadelphia, I asked Weiss if it was possible that his players’ grittiness and knack for overcoming could carry them to the top.

“I think that’s what’s carrying us now,” he said. “Really, really. I can say that about the entire season.”

He went on to say that it felt like the team hadn’t been at full strength for the whole season, listing the series of injuries that has shaken up the roster.