Falcons’ 3 keys to victory vs. Bears: NFL’s best rushing offenses square off

FLOWERY BRANCH — DeMarcco Hellams still remembers it. How couldn’t he? It was the play that ended his high school career.

The last time Hellams, a safety for the Falcons who sees most of his snaps on special teams, faced Bears quarterback Caleb Williams came in the Washington Catholic Athletic Conference championship game on Nov. 18, 2018.

Williams threw a game-winning 53-yard Hail Mary as time expired. It was payback. Earlier that season, Hellams intercepted Williams on a tight end leak in triple overtime to seal a victory.

Hellams and Williams played numerous times in their youth, both growing up in and around Washington D.C. But they haven’t met since that Sunday night in November some eight years ago.

Now comes Hellams’ chance for redemption, as the Falcons (2-3) host the Bears (3-2) at 1 p.m. Sunday inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

“It’ll be a good opportunity to get a win off him after the last time we played,” Hellams told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Here are three keys to deciding whether the Falcons will get their first home win — and whether Hellams will get one back on Williams, who’s expected to start after missing three games with a hamstring injury.

Which rushing offense steals the show?

Sunday brings a battle of the NFL’s two best ground games through five weeks. The Bears are averaging 173.2 rushing yards per game, tops in the league, while the second-ranked Falcons (166.8) aren’t far behind.

Both teams have good run defenses, too. The Falcons were the best in the league through four weeks, but after the Baltimore Ravens rushed for 208 yards last week, they slipped to No. 4, allowing 80.2 rushing yards per game. Chicago, meanwhile, is holding opponents to 96 yards per game on the ground, the ninth-best mark in the league.

Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski said the team will have its hands full with the Bears’ rushing attack, which is without standout runner Kyle Monangai but is sound and diverse schematically and has receivers and tight ends willing to block.

“It’s the best in the league, and deservedly so,” Stefanski said Friday. “The way they run their wide zone, the way they run duo, they have the ability to run it outside the numbers, the ability to run it downhill in their gap schemes. It’s an excellent offensive line, maybe the best offensive line in football, which I wouldn’t argue if you said that.

“So, our ability to stop the run and control the run and slow down the run is a huge part of this ballgame, like it is every game. But going up against this rushing attack, it’s a very, very real challenge.”

Can Falcons carry third-down success against Bears’ stout defense?

The Bears have the NFL’s second-best third-down defense, allowing conversions on just 26% of opponents’ attempts. The Falcons are fresh off a stout week offensively on third down, converting nine of 17 tries against the Ravens, including all four on third-and-10 or longer.

Stefanski didn’t like how often the Falcons found themselves in third-and-long, but he was “very pleased” with the team’s general performance on third down.

“I thought the execution on the third downs was excellent,” Stefanski said. “A lot of good there, but we’ve got to look at ways that we can, No. 1, avoid third down, and No. 2, be in more manageable situations.”

The Bears led the NFL in interceptions last season, and they’ve already tallied five this year, which is tied for sixth in the league. They have an advantageous secondary, and if the Falcons are forced into third-and-long scenarios like last week, Chicago’s back end has ball-hungry playmakers ready to pounce.

So, the key here? Stay out of third downs as often as possible — but when they inevitably come, be ready for defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s exotic looks.

“They challenge you there,” Falcons offensive coordinator Tommy Rees said of the Bears’ third-down success. “(Allen) has great packages there for pressure and putting you in a bad spot.”

Williams set to play, but can Falcons make him uncomfortable?

The Falcons have an NFL-best 97 quarterback pressures, according to Next Gen Stats. They have three defensive linemen — Gervon Dexter Sr., Brandon Dorlus and Cameron Thomas — ranked inside the top eight in the league in pressures.

Sack numbers haven’t followed, but Stefanski feels those can lie. Pressure matters, and the Falcons have created plenty of it.

But they lived the inverse in Week 5. Despite a season-high four sacks, they had their second-worst pressure rate this season at 39.5% against Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley, and they pressured him only once in 12 drop-backs across the final two drives. What’s worse about the pressure rate is the Falcons blitzed at their highest clip, sending additional bodies 47.4% of the time.

In the season’s first four games, the Falcons built an identity on creating pressure with four players and not being forced to blitz. It’d be a welcome return if they get back to it against the Bears and Williams, who’s still working his hamstring back to full strength.

But the Falcons understand the challenge that Williams presents. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich described Williams as “rare” and “unique,” and he enters his first matchup against the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft with significant respect.

“You see the highlights, and you see the special plays,” Ulbrich said, “but now that I’ve got an opportunity to really study him, he’s not just the face of the franchise, he’s one of those NFL faces of the league. The talent is exceptional, and it’s going to be a great challenge.”