Lot to play out over the next nine days or so but, as of this second, the Braves would be the National League’s No. 3 playoff seed. They’d begin their postseason push with a three-game series against the piping hot Padres.
I’ll explain more in a bit, but we’ve got a poll up about your preferred playoff opponent … and your current anxiety levels.
How about a touch of context first?
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TOUCH OF CONTEXT
By Chad Bishop, Braves beat writer
At some point this weekend, as early as Friday, the Braves could clinch a spot in National League playoffs. And as early as Sunday, they could claim the NL East division crown.
Both of those rungs on the proverbial ladder should be celebrated and certainly not taken for granted. It was only one year ago that the Braves were limping to a 76-win season and fourth-place finish in the division.
And because of that 2025 performance (or lack thereof), expectations were quite tempered for this club coming into 2026. There were no major offseason signings or trades. The starting rotation was in flux. The team was going to be under the direction of a first-year manager.
Here is how the baseball world viewed the Braves in the winter:
▶️ FanGraphs projected the Braves to win 84 games (the win total ahead of Friday’s game against the Astros in Houston was 89). The site pegged the Braves as the NL East’s third-best team, writing, “ZiPS (a system of player projections) views their rotation as having high upside but also a pretty low floor because the depth is paper-thin.”
▶️ Baseball America also pegged the Braves to finish third in the division, though it did project the team to make the playoffs as a wild-card qualifier.
▶️ From a betting perspective, BetMGM gave the Braves a win total of 86.5. They passed that with 14 games remaining on the schedule.
▶️ On MLB.com, writer Will Leitch predicted the Braves to finish third in the NL East. “This spring has not been an encouraging sign that the tide is turning,” Leitch wrote about the Braves.
▶️ The Athletic put the Braves’ odds of making the playoffs at 79%, which is a pretty good number. But author Tim Britton said, “These odds feel high for a team coming off a disappointing season and already seeing its pitching depth seriously strained.”
▶️ The one model that did see the Braves in a favorable light was PECOTA. It projected the Braves to win 92 games and gave them a 57% shot at winning the division.
No one can really fault those projections. Pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Hurston Waldrep and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim were all injured during or before spring training. Dominic Smith and Martín Pérez were not seriously thought to be major contributors to the team’s long-term plans. Mauricio Dubón was a bit of an afterthought as far as offseason additions went.
Yet the Braves have virtually led the division wire-to-wire because of the efforts of those types of players. They’re on the verge of winning a 22nd division crown since 1991. They will, at the very least, open the playoffs at home.
That is why they play the games, of course, and Braves Country should relish in the fact that for more times than not this season their team has played them well.
Indeed. Thanks, Chad! Y’all follow him at @MrChadBishop to stay up to date down the home stretch.
HOW THEY ACTUALLY CLINCH
The Braves can clinch a playoff spot Friday by beating the Astros, or via a Diamondbacks loss to the Yankees. As for the division:
- The Phillies won Thursday, so Atlanta’s NL East lead remains at four games (with nine to play). The magic number stays at five.
- By my count, that means the earliest Atlanta can clinch is Sunday … if they win Friday and Saturday, the Phillies lose Friday and Saturday and at least one of them continues the trend Sunday. For instance.
Make sense?
POLL: ANXIETY AND OPPOSITION
Los Bravos are kinda sorta limping into things, with a 7-8 record in September. Ronald Acuña Jr. aside, the offense has been inconsistent at best.
As far as potential playoff opponents: Right now, the Braves would host the sixth-seeded Padres in a best-of-three series. The Cubs and Phillies are other possibilities, but columnist Michael Cunningham suggests Atlanta should feel pretty good about San Diego.
- To wit: “The ideal October opponent for the Braves has few good left-handed pitchers and few dangerous right-handed sluggers. That’s the Padres. They’ve lately been on a hot streak against teams out of contention, but the Braves are built to beat them in October.”
Deeper analysis in the column, which you should definitely read.
✅ Then open the fancy form to assess your anxiety (scale of 1 to 10) and pick your preferred opponent. You can email tyler.estep@ajc.com, too.
SO … WHY NO SALE?
As always, we’ll take a closer look at the series ahead — at Houston, vs. Cincinnati — momentarily.
But let’s go ahead and take a closer look at the starters scheduled to face the Astros this weekend:
- Tyler Mahle (6-10, 3.91 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (8-9, 3.71)
- Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.49) vs. Hayden Wesneski (5-2, 3.70)
- Martín Pérez (9-9, 3.07) vs. Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.43)
Notice anyone missing?
Yeah, it’s Chris Sale.
With nothing officially clinched, it feels a tad odd for the Braves ace to get the bump.
Consider this, though: Sale has pitched on extra rest plenty this season, and pushing his next start to the forthcoming Reds series lines him up to take the mound for Game 1 of a first-round playoff series — with another 24-48 hours of additional downtime thrown in.
Pérez, the presumed Game 3 playoff starter, has said he prefers to pitch on regular rest, so we’re all good there, too.
WHAT’S ON DECK, SPEED EDITION
Braves at Astros: Friday through Sunday at 8:10, 7:10 and 2:10 p.m., respectively. All on BravesVision.
- The Astros own a 77-76 record and one-game lead over the Rangers for the American League West lead. Whichever team fails to take the division may land on the outside of the playoff picture, so Houston still has plenty to play for.
- Designated hitter Yordan Alvarez is flirting with the Triple Crown.
Braves vs. Reds: 7:15 p.m. every day Tuesday through Thursday. BravesVision’s an option for all three, but Tuesday’s game simulcasts on your local Gray TV station and Thursday’s also airs on FS1.
- Despite Elly De La Cruz’s best efforts, Cincinnati is 71-82 and has dropped seven of its last nine games. Also keep an eye out for first baseman Sal Stewart: The first-year big leaguer had 31 homers and 108 RBIs and is the odds-on favorite for National League Rookie of the Year.
- Tuesday’s “Austin Riley short-sleeved hoodie” giveaway day for the first 15,000 folks through the gates. Thursday brings Ronald Acuña Jr. basketball jerseys, grown-up edition.
Then it’s the final regular-season series, with the Marlins in Miami.
Giddy up.
Thanks for reading Braves Report. Tell a friend — and maybe give the Win Column a shot, too.
Until next time.