Atlanta Hawks’ playoff scenarios are taking shape with 5 games to go
ORLANDO, Fla. — The Hawks now control their own destiny just a little bit more. After downing the Magic 130-101 on Wednesday night, they gained a little more of a hold on the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Hawks have a 1½-game lead on both the 76ers (sixth) and Raptors (seventh) with five games remaining in the regular season.
It continues the Hawks’ turnaround following the All-Star break. They’ve won 18 of their last 21 games, including an 11-game win streak last month. They have the third-best record after the All-Star break behind the Spurs and Thunder.
In that span, the Hawks have posted the second-best defensive rating, the third-best net rating and rank among the top 10 teams in offensive rating.
The Hawks have played some good basketball over the last six weeks. So, as their confidence grows heading into the postseason, they could end up the arbiters of their own fate.
With five games left in the regular season, here’s a look at the Hawks’ potential matchups after April 12.
4th vs. 5th seeds — at Cavaliers
If the playoffs began tomorrow, the Hawks would face the Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Hawks have split their first two games of the regular-season series against Cleveland. But like the Hawks, the Cavaliers have a completely different team than they did in November.
Cleveland could pose a tough matchup for the Hawks.
They have yet to contend with the twin-tower lineup of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who did not play in the first two meetings. But the Cavaliers have had a mostly healthy roster of late.
The Hawks will have to figure out how they will attack the basket with Allen and Mobley protecting the rim. They could have a tough time on the glass.
So, the Hawks will have to rely even more heavily on their transition game.
This season, the Cavaliers have not had the strongest transition defense. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Cavaliers allowed 114.8 points per 100 transition plays. Meanwhile, the Hawks average 116 points per 100 transition plays.
On top of figuring out the double-big lineup, the Hawks will have to find ways to slow the Cavaliers’ backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.
The Cavaliers thrive in the halfcourt, ranking fifth in the NBA in points per 100 plays. On average, the Cavaliers score 101.5 points per 100 halfcourt plays.
It could be a tough matchup for the Hawks, but they still have a path forward as one of the league’s top defenses.
3rd vs. 6th seeds — at Knicks
The Hawks have also split their series with the Knicks this season, but Atlanta has matched up fairly well with them.
Plus, the Hawks look a lot different than they did when they faced the Knicks for both meetings in December and January. Atlanta has more veteran presence with players who have been tested in postseason situations, and they look even more cohesive on the defensive end.
Hawks guard Dyson Daniels usually matches up well against Knicks guard Jalen Brunson. Plus, officials usually allow more physical play in the playoffs, and that could work in Daniels and the Hawks’ favor if they set the tone early.
Play-In Tournament
Atlanta will have to be even more attuned to the glass, with Mitchell Robinson coming off the bench for New York. Plus, they’ll have to be even more prepared with big man Karl-Anthony Towns looking to stretch the defense with his ability to shoot.
The Hawks have done a good job of establishing themselves to climb to the fifth seed. But the NBA guarantees nothing, and their 1½-game hold is anything but secure.
There is still a scenario where they fall out of the top six.
The Hawks likely won’t fall any further than the eighth seed since they hold the tiebreaker over the Magic.
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