GHSA’s 2027 seeding model would have been disappointing for basketball in 2026
The Georgia High School Association will qualify playoff teams unconventionally next academic year by employing a math model to seed teams 1-32 while mostly ignoring region finish.
The goal is to keep better teams from playing each other too soon and to reward stronger regions by giving them higher seeds, much the way the NCAA does with March Madness.
If the new GHSA format had been in place for the recent state basketball tournament, it would have nearly eliminated first-round matchups between top-10 teams, according to AJC research. That’s a good thing, as the GHSA wants to see elite teams facing off later in the tournament.
But the plan would have fared no better in delaying high-leverage matchups after the first round, according to AJC analysis.
Starting with the second round, the old and the new plans each produced 40 potential matchups that could be called premature based on the teams’ rankings in a consensus human poll.
Those human polls — from the AJC, Score Atlanta and Sandy’s Speil — proved more accurate than the GHSA’s computer model, called the Post Season Rankings (PSR), which would have generated some plain-to-see miscalculations.
The most glaring would have been Wheeler’s boys, Georgia’s highest-ranked team nationally at No. 11 in MaxPreps. The GHSA model would have seeded Wheeler No. 8 in its own GHSA classification, 6A. The Class 6A boys runner-up, Pebblebrook, also was also conspicuous at No. 12, much lower than its No. 5 human rank.
To assess how the GHSA’s new model would have performed overall, the AJC created the consensus poll to identify what are considered the best teams entering the tournament, those the GHSA would prefer not to meet until later in the tournament.
In this year’s actual first round, there were seven first-round games between top-10 teams from this consensus poll. Using the GHSA’s 2027 format, there would have been only one: No. 7 Eagle’s Landing Christian vs. No. 5 Southwest DeKalb in Class 4A boys.
One of this year’s actual first-round matchups — No. 9 Milton at No. 4 Decatur in Class 5A boys — demonstrates how the new format is designed to work.
Milton finished third in its region tournament this year. The GHSA’s traditional format forces third-place finishers to play second-place finishers on the road in the first round, regardless of team or region strength. Milton’s first-round opponent happened to be another top-10 opponent, Decatur, which beat Milton 68-64 in overtime.
Using the GHSA’s new model, Milton would have been seeded No. 4 overall (instead of what amounts to a 17-24 seed) and been guaranteed home-court advantage until the semifinals. Decatur would have been seeded No. 7 overall.
But after the first round, the new GHSA model would not have delivered on its mission to reduce what might be called premature matchups — defined as top-eight teams playing in the second round, top-four teams playing in the quarterfinals and top-two teams playing in the semifinals.
It’s a coincidence that both models would have produced 40 potential premature matchups, as they are not the same 40 games.
Some of them did match, though. Both would have failed to prevent No. 2 Newton vs. No. 3 Buford in the Class 6A girls second round and No. 1 St. Pius vs. No. 2 North Oconee in the Class 4A boys quarterfinals.
The new format also would have had No. 2 McEachern playing No. 4 Hillgrove in the 6A boys quarterfinals. Both made the semifinals this season.
In theory, if the PSR were perfect, it would produce no premature high-leverage matchups. In seeded draws, the No. 1 team cannot face a top-eight opponent until the quarterfinals, or a top-four opponent until the semifinals, or the No. 2 seed until the final.
But the PSR proved less accurate than the human rankings.
The 64 teams that made this year’s semifinals are ranked higher, on average, in the human polls than in the PSR. That’s despite the PSR’s top-10 seeds getting more favorable draws than the human polls’ top-10 teams.
Only 15 of the 64 semifinalists had higher rankings in the PSR. Fifteen had the same. The other 34 teams had higher rankings in human polls.
The same pattern was found in the quarterfinals and finals. The teams that performed the best in the tournament were rated higher by the human polls from the start.
The PSR’s struggles with Wheeler and Pebblebrook are largely the PSR’s handling of out-of-state games. Wheeler lost six games, making its winning percentage unspectacular for a top-10 team or even a state champion. But five losses came against out-of-state teams. The other was a forfeited victory against a Georgia team as a penalty for overscheduling.
Four of the GHSA’s eight classifications — 3A, 2A, A Division I and Private — used the PSR this season, but with automatic playoff berths and seeding preference based on region finish.
In 2026-27, region finish won’t matter except to guarantee region winners a top-16 seed. Otherwise, teams in all classes will be seeded strictly on PSR.
Sports that use the PSR are football, softball, volleyball, basketball, baseball, soccer and tennis.
Below is how the 2026 basketball draws would have fallen using 2027 rules. The GHSA calculated the PSR seeds and provided them to the AJC.
Teams are shown with their GHSA-assigned seed and their top-10 ranking in the consensus poll.
Simulated 2026 boys playoff brackets using PSR
Class 6A
- #1 (No. 3) Grayson vs. #32 Carrollton
- #16 (No. 9) South Gwinnett vs. #17 Dacula
- #8 (No. 1) Wheeler vs. #25 South Forsyth
- #9 (No. 8) Cherokee vs. #24 Forsyth Central
- #5 (No. 7) Meadowcreek vs. #28 East Coweta
- #12 (No. 5) Pebblebrook vs. #21 Campbell
- #4 (No. 6) Westlake vs. #29 Newton
- #13 Peachtree Ridge vs. #20 Berkmar
- #3 (No. 10) Lowndes vs. #30 Parkview
- #14 Buford vs. #19 Central Gwinnett
- #6 Walton vs. #27 Marietta
- #11 North Atlanta vs. #22 Mill Creek
- #7 (No. 4) Hillgrove vs. #26 Brookwood
- #10 Lambert vs. #23 Valdosta
- #2 (No. 2) McEachern vs. #31 Osborne
- #15 Chapel Hill vs. #18 Camden County
Class 5A
- #1 (No. 1) Gainesville vs. #32 Evans
- #16 Brunswick vs. #17 Winder-Barrow
- #8 (No. 6) Johns Creek vs. #25 Tri-Cities
- #9 (No. 8) Dutchtown vs. #24 Lanier
- #5 Lassiter vs. #28 Riverwood
- #12 Houston County vs. #21 Pope
- #4 (No. 9) Milton vs. #29 Sequoyah
- #13 Sprayberry vs. #20 Habersham Central
- #3 Woodstock vs. #30 Kennesaw Mountain
- #14 (No. 7) Newnan vs. #19 Coffee
- #6 (No. 3) Woodward Academy vs. #27 East Paulding
- #11 (No. 5) Hughes vs. #22 Lee County
- #7 (No. 4) Decatur vs. #26 Chamblee
- #10 (No. 10) Bradwell Institute vs. #23 Morrow
- #2 (No. 2) Alexander vs. #31 Dunwoody
- #15 Statesboro vs. #18 South Paulding
Class 4A
- #1 (No. 1) St. Pius vs. #32 Central-Carrollton
- #16 Cambridge vs. #17 Cedar Shoals
- #8 Mays vs. #25 Starr’s Mill
- #9 (No. 9) Locust Grove vs. #24 Wayne County
- #5 (No. 8) Griffin vs. #28 Flowery Branch
- #12 (No. 6) Tucker vs. #21 Midtown
- #4 Ware County vs. #29 Dalton
- #13 East Forsyth vs. #20 Marist
- #3 (No. 10) Westminster vs. #30 McDonough
- #14 Allatoona vs. #19 Hiram
- #6 (No. 3) Pace Academy vs. #27 Kell
- #11 Cartersville vs. #22 Union Grove
- #7 Eastside vs. #26 Warner Robins
- #10 (No. 4) Jonesboro vs. #23 Eagle’s Landing
- #2 (No. 2) North Oconee vs. #31 Creekside
- #15 (No. 7) Eagle’s Landing Christian vs. #18 (No. 5) Southwest DeKalb
Class 3A
- #1 (No. 5) Westover vs. #32 Luella
- #16 East Hall vs. #17 Jefferson
- #8 Long County vs. #25 Hephzibah
- #9 (No. 6) Troup vs. #24 LaFayette
- #5 (No. 10) Calhoun vs. #28 Upson-Lee
- #12 (No. 7) Harlem vs. #21 Pickens
- #4 (No. 2) Cross Creek vs. #29 Bainbridge
- #13 Lumpkin County vs. #20 Northwest Whitfield
- #3 (No. 3) Baldwin vs. #30 Jenkins
- #14 Beach vs. #19 Dougherty
- #6 Monroe vs. #27 Cairo
- #11 Heritage-Ringgold vs. #22 Westside-Augusta
- #7 (No. 4) Cedar Grove vs. #26 North Clayton
- #10 (No. 9) Spalding vs. #23 Cherokee Bluff
- #2 (No. 1) Sandy Creek vs. #31 Mary Persons
- #15 Liberty County vs. #18 (No. 8) Douglass
Class 2A
- #1 (No. 3) Carver-Columbus vs. #32 Rutland
- #16 (No. 8) Salem vs. #17 Sumter County
- #8 Crisp County vs. #25 Callaway
- #9 Spencer vs. #24 Union County
- #5 (No. 2) Butler vs. #28 Drew Charter
- #12 (No. 6) Therrell vs. #21 Shaw
- #4 (No. 5) Columbia vs. #29 Appling County
- #13 Burke County vs. #20 Kendrick
- #3 (No. 10) Lakeview-Fort Oglethorpe vs. #30 Tattnall County
- #14 Franklin County vs. #19 North Murray
- #6 (No. 4) South Atlanta vs. #27 Miller Grove
- #11 Ringgold vs. #22 Hart County
- #7 Murray County vs. #26 Coahulla Creek
- #10 (No. 7) Morgan County vs. #23 Carver-Atlanta
- #2 (No. 1) KIPP Atlanta Collegiate vs. #31 Sonoraville
- #15 (No. 9) Redan vs. #18 Thomson
Class A Division I
- #1 (No. 5) Vidalia vs. #32 Central-Macon
- #16 Jefferson County vs. #17 Dade County
- #8 (No. 10) Fannin County vs. #25 Temple
- #9 Swainsboro vs. #24 Northeast
- #5 (No. 6) Model vs. #28 Woodville-Tompkins
- #12 Dodge County vs. #21 Haralson County
- #4 (No. 2) Southwest vs. #29 ACE Charter
- #13 Heard County vs. #20 Jasper County
- #3 (No. 7) Fitzgerald vs. #30 Bleckley County
- #14 Toombs County vs. #19 Elbert County
- #6 (No. 3) Putnam County vs. #27 Brantley County
- #11 (No. 8) East Laurens vs. #22 Thomasville
- #7 (No. 9) Washington County vs. #26 B.E.S.T. Academy
- #10 (No. 4) Commerce vs. #23 Social Circle
- #2 (No. 1) Rabun County vs. #31 Chattooga
- #15 Jeff Davis vs. #18 Bremen
Class A Division II
- #1 (No. 1) Chattahoochee County vs. #32 McIntosh County Academy
- #16 (No. 10) Washington-Wilkes vs. #17 Metter
- #8 (No. 9) Early County vs. #25 Warren County
- #9 (No. 6) Portal vs. #24 Marion County
- #5 (No. 8) Mitchell County vs. #28 Stewart County
- #12 Screven County vs. #21 Charlton County
- #4 (No. 5) Clinch County vs. #29 Terrell County
- #13 Brooks County vs. #20 Elite Scholars Academy
- #3 (No. 4) Seminole County vs. #30 Bryan County
- #14 Calhoun County vs. #19 Atkinson County
- #6 (No. 3) Bowdon vs. #27 Johnson County
- #11 (No. 7) Hancock Central vs. #22 Towns County
- #7 Taylor County vs. #26 Wilcox County
- #10 Wheeler County vs. #23 Manchester
- #2 (No. 2) Turner County vs. #31 Randolph-Clay
- #15 Savannah vs. #18 Macon County
Class 3A-A Private
- #1 (No. 7) Darlington vs. #32 Aquinas
- #16 Greater Atlanta Christian vs. #17 King’s Ridge Christian
- #8 Christian Heritage vs. #25 Wesleyan
- #9 (No. 10) Calvary Day vs. #24 W.D. Mohammed
- #5 (No. 3) Greenforest Christian vs. #28 Atlanta International
- #12 Savannah Country Day vs. #21 Mount Paran Christian
- #4 (No. 2) Mount Vernon vs. #29 Landmark Christian
- #13 Southwest Atlanta Christian vs. #20 Whitefield Academy
- #3 (No. 4) North Cobb Christian vs. #30 Trinity Christian
- #14 St. Francis vs. #19 Lovett
- #6 (No. 6) Walker vs. #27 Mount Pisgah Christian
- #11 Savannah Christian vs. #22 Athens Academy
- #7 (No. 8) Hebron Christian vs. #26 Fellowship Christian
- #10 (No. 5) Mount Bethel Christian vs. #23 Providence Christian
- #2 (No. 1) Holy Innocents’ vs. #31 Weber
- #15 Prince Avenue Christian vs. #18 (No. 9) Paideia
Simulated 2026 girls playoff brackets using PSR
Class 6A
- #1 (No. 10) Lowndes vs. #32 Walton
- #16 Brookwood vs. #17 Collins Hill
- #8 (No. 9) Marietta vs. #25 South Gwinnett
- #9 (No. 5) Archer vs. #24 North Forsyth
- #5 (No. 6) Westlake vs. #28 Colquitt County
- #12 Cherokee vs. #21 Paulding County
- #4 (No. 3) Buford vs. #29 Richmond Hill
- #13 McEachern vs. #20 Tift County
- #3 (No. 4) Carrollton vs. #30 East Coweta
- #14 (No. 7) Hillgrove vs. #19 Etowah
- #6 Valdosta vs. #27 Chapel Hill
- #11 (No. 8) Campbell vs. #22 Norcross
- #7 (No. 2) Newton vs. #26 Wheeler
- #10 Camden County vs. #23 Grovetown
- #2 (No. 1) North Paulding vs. #31 Dacula
- #15 South Forsyth vs. #18 Grayson
Class 5A
- #1 (No. 3) Bradwell Institute vs. #32 Northside-Warner Robins
- #16 Tri-Cities vs. #17 Lanier
- #8 (No. 9) Morrow vs. #25 Statesboro
- #9 (No. 5) Creekview vs. #24 Sprayberry
- #5 (No. 1) Milton vs. #28 Habersham Central
- #12 Alexander vs. #21 South Effingham
- #4 Coffee vs. #29 Greenbrier
- #13 Lee County vs. #20 Winder-Barrow
- #3 (No. 10) Brunswick vs. #30 South Paulding
- #14 (No. 8) Sequoyah vs. #19 Newnan
- #6 (No. 2) River Ridge vs. #27 McIntosh
- #11 (No. 7) New Manchester vs. #22 Jackson County
- #7 (No. 4) Woodward Academy vs. #26 East Paulding
- #10 Loganville vs. #23 Seckinger
- #2 (No. 6) Hughes vs. #31 Pope
- #15 Evans vs. #18 Glynn Academy
Class 4A
- #1 (No. 2) Kell vs. #32 East Forsyth
- #16 Stockbridge vs. #17 Wayne County
- #8 (No. 7) Cartersville vs. #25 Ola
- #9 Woodland-Stockbridge vs. #24 Eastside
- #5 (No. 5) Dalton vs. #28 Cambridge
- #12 (No. 4) Creekside vs. #21 Cedar Shoals
- #4 (No. 3) North Oconee vs. #29 Ware County
- #13 Madison County vs. #20 Blessed Trinity
- #3 (No. 9) Warner Robins vs. #30 Lithonia
- #14 St. Pius vs. #19 Northview
- #6 (No. 10) Starr’s Mill vs. #27 Jackson-Atlanta
- #11 Harris County vs. #22 Pace Academy
- #7 (No. 8) Jones County vs. #26 Union Grove
- #10 (No. 6) Southwest DeKalb vs. #23 Eagle’s Landing Christian
- #2 (No. 1) Marist vs. #31 Hampton
- #15 Westminster vs. #18 Midtown
Class 3A
- #1 (No. 2) Monroe vs. #32 East Hall
- #16 Gilmer vs. #17 White County
- #8 (No. 5) Cherokee Bluff vs. #25 LaFayette
- #9 (No. 10) Ridgeland vs. #24 Hephzibah
- #5 (No. 1) Luella vs. #28 West Laurens
- #12 (No. 8) Stephenson vs. #21 Jefferson
- #4 (No. 3) Sandy Creek vs. #29 Bainbridge
- #13 Cross Creek vs. #20 Groves
- #3 (No. 6) Jenkins vs. #30 Douglass
- #14 Liberty County vs. #19 Lumpkin County
- #6 (No. 9) Pickens vs. #27 Upson-Lee
- #11 Troup vs. #22 North Hall
- #7 Baldwin vs. #26 Cedar Grove
- #10 (No. 4) Oconee County vs. #23 Long County
- #2 (No. 7) Heritage-Catoosa vs. #31 Dougherty
- #15 Westover vs. #18 Northwest Whitfield
Class 2A
- #1 (No. 1) Josey vs. #32 Rutland
- #16 Sonoraville vs. #17 Ringgold
- #8 (No. 5) Westside-Macon vs. #25 Shaw
- #9 (No. 9) Hart County vs. #24 North Murray
- #5 (No. 7) Hardaway vs. #28 Butler
- #12 Carver-Columbus vs. #21 Callaway
- #4 (No. 6) Morgan County vs. #29 Franklin County
- #13 KIPP Atlanta Collegiate vs. #20 Coahulla Creek
- #3 (No. 2) Columbia vs. #30 Crisp County
- #14 Salem vs. #19 Therrell
- #6 Appling County vs. #27 CSK Academy
- #11 Tattnall County vs. #22 Drew Charter
- #7 (No. 3) Thomson vs. #26 South Atlanta
- #10 (No. 8) Union County vs. #23 Miller Grove
- #2 (No. 4) Murray County vs. #31 Pierce County
- #15 (No. 10) Laney vs. #18 Sumter County
Class A Division I
- #1 (No. 2) Bremen vs. #32 Jasper County
- #16 (No. 9) Heard County vs. #17 Swainsboro
- #8 (No. 1) Putnam County vs. #25 Chattooga
- #9 (No. 3) Fannin County vs. #24 Pepperell
- #5 (No. 4) Lamar County vs. #28 Gordon Lee
- #12 (No. 10) Elbert County vs. #21 ACE Charter
- #4 Vidalia vs. #29 Southwest
- #13 Washington County vs. #20 Commerce
- #3 (No. 8) East Laurens vs. #30 Dade County
- #14 Brantley County vs. #19 Central-Macon
- #6 (No. 6) Bacon County vs. #27 Dublin
- #11 Northeast vs. #22 Banks County
- #7 (No. 5) Rabun County vs. #26 Armuchee
- #10 Model vs. #23 Bleckley County
- #2 (No. 7) Thomasville vs. #31 Social Circle
- #15 Fitzgerald vs. #18 Temple
Class A Division II
- #1 (No. 1) Wilcox County vs. #32 Marion County
- #16 Glascock County vs. #17 Schley County
- #8 (No. 10) Taylor County vs. #25 Greenville
- #9 (No. 9) Brooks County vs. #24 McIntosh County Academy
- #5 (No. 3) Metter vs. #28 Lanier County
- #12 Bowdon vs. #21 Mitchell County
- #4 (No. 5) Pelham vs. #29 Stewart County
- #13 Randolph-Clay vs. #20 Manchester
- #3 (No. 6) Terrell County vs. #30 Lincoln County
- #14 Screven County vs. #19 Turner County
- #6 (No. 7) Bryan County vs. #27 Calhoun County
- #11 (No. 2) Washington-Wilkes vs. #22 Emanuel County Institute
- #7 Charlton County vs. #26 Wheeler County
- #10 (No. 8) Telfair County vs. #23 Miller County
- #2 (No. 4) Macon County vs. #31 Trion
- #15 Warren County vs. #18 Hancock Central
Class 3A-A Private
- #1 (No. 1) Hebron Christian vs. #32 Bye
- #16 Prince Avenue Christian vs. #17 Wesleyan
- #8 Savannah Country Day vs. #25 Calvary Day
- #9 (No. 6) Whitefield Academy vs. #24 Walker
- #5 (No. 9) Christian Heritage vs. #28 Aquinas
- #12 King’s Ridge Christian vs. #21 Paideia
- #4 (No. 2) St. Francis vs. #29 Mount Vernon
- #13 Providence Christian vs. #20 Atlanta International
- #3 (No. 3) Holy Innocents’ vs. #30 Bye
- #14 Lovett vs. #19 North Cobb Christian
- #6 (No. 4) Galloway vs. #27 Savannah Christian
- #11 (No. 10) Trinity Christian vs. #22 Landmark Christian
- #7 (No. 7) Greater Atlanta Christian vs. #26 Weber
- #10 (No. 8) Mount Paran Christian vs. #23 Mount Bethel Christian
- #2 (No. 5) Athens Academy vs. #31 Bye
- #15 Fellowship Christian vs. #18 St. Vincents Academy
About the Author
Todd Holcomb covers high school sports across the state. He rejoined The Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2025 and has worked with the AJC in varying capacities since 1985. He is a co-founder and editor of Georgia High School Football Daily.
