AJC Varsity

Which teams are favorites in Georgia HS football Week 6 | Maxwell projections

Maxwell gives North Cobb a slight edge against North Paulding in top rated contest.
Creekview won at Lassiter on Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
Creekview won at Lassiter on Friday, Sept. 5, 2025, and the Grizzlies will be a heavy favorite to beat Riverwood on Friday, according to the Maxwell projections. (Oscar Guevara Saenz for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
By Loren Maxwell
19 hours ago

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5 and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round-robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or less, and at least 50% of the time, the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and, thus, the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game were infinitely repeated.

Favorite Projection Underdog
Date Game Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
45919.0077.18AAAAAANorth Cobb0.55324 - 213North PauldingAAAAAA
45919.0075.82AAAABlessed Trinity0.80226 - 1313Hebron ChristianSmaller Private
45919.0074.33AAAAAGainesville0.83528 - 1315LanierAAAAA
45919.0073.85AAAAAANewton0.74730 - 219ArcherAAAAAA
45918.0072.89AAAAAAWest Forsyth0.61423 - 203DenmarkAAAAAA
45919.0072.34AAAAAANorcross0.72927 - 1611Peachtree RidgeAAAAAA
45919.0071.86AAAAAANorth Gwinnett0.92131 - 724ParkviewAAAAAA
45919.0070.84AAAAASequoyah0.89328 - 721River RidgeAAAAA
45919.0066.86Smaller PrivateCalvary Day0.72228 - 217JenkinsAAA Public
45919.0066.55AAAAPerry0.68827 - 198East CowetaAAAAAA
45919.0065.75AAAAAAHarrison0.83528 - 1414CampbellAAAAAA
45919.0065.35A Division I PublicWorth County0.56824 - 213FitzgeraldA Division I Public
45918.0065.1AAAAAANorth Forsyth0.57121 - 183LambertAAAAAA
45919.0064.66AAAAAAWestlake0.827 - 1413Hapeville CharterAA Public
45919.0062.95AA PublicPierce County0.82127 - 1314Brooks CountyA Division II
45919.0062.9AAA PublicDouglass0.55221 - 201Cedar GroveAAA Public
45919.0062.34AAAAEastside0.6726 - 206Flowery BranchAAAA
45919.0061.04AAAAAEast Paulding0.70626 - 179New ManchesterAAAAA
45919.0060.61AAAAWarner Robins0.71124 - 159VeteransAAAAA
45919.0060.58AAAAAAMarietta0.76128 - 1711EtowahAAAAAA
45919.0060.37AAA PublicWhitewater0.53221 - 210Upson-LeeAAA Public
45919.0060.36AAAAARoswell0.96439 - 930SeckingerAAAAA
45919.0060.24AAAAAAWalton0.87634 - 1717WheelerAAAAAA
45919.0060.23AAAAAJackson County0.83226 - 818Clarke CentralAAAAA
45919.0059.99AAA PublicSandy Creek0.93834 - 727Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)Smaller Private
45919.0059.7AAAAJonesboro0.78523 - 1112Harris CountyAAAA
45919.0059.3AAAAAWoodstock0.63521 - 147CreekviewAAAAA
45919.0059.2AAA PublicHarlem0.61522 - 193West LaurensAAA Public
45919.0059.04AAAASt. Pius X0.50520 - 200Southwest DeKalbAAAA
45919.0057.95AAAAAVilla Rica0.50421 - 210South PauldingAAAAA
45919.0057.6AAAACreekside0.98341 - 041MaysAAAA
45919.0056.81Smaller PrivateAquinas0.52720 - 191Westside (Augusta)AAA Public
45919.0056.36AAAAAAGrayson0.99644 - 044GrovetownAAAAAA
45919.0055.95AAAAAACollins Hill0.95631 - 031Central GwinnettAAAAAA
45919.0055.94AAAAGriffin0.50921 - 210Starr's MillAAAA
45919.0055.45AAAABenedictine0.96334 - 034Westminster (Atlanta)AAAA
45919.0055.2AAAAAHughes0.99546 - 046DutchtownAAAAA
45919.0054.96A Division I PublicSwainsboro0.85829 - 1415Crisp CountyAA Public
45919.0054.91AAAAKell0.89328 - 820ColumbiaAA Public
45919.0054.26AAAAAANorth Atlanta0.79928 - 1513South ForsythAAAAAA
45919.0054.18AA PublicCook0.67421 - 147Irwin CountyA Division II
45919.0053.84AAA PublicLaGrange0.93628 - 028SpaldingAAA Public
45919.0053.54AAAAALovejoy0.90830 - 723McIntoshAAAAA
45919.0053.53A Division I PublicNortheast0.79727 - 1413ACE CharterA Division I Public
45919.0053.46AAA PublicGilmer0.65126 - 206Northwest WhitfieldAAA Public
45919.0053.07AAA PublicMonroe Area0.70724 - 168Hart CountyAA Public
45919.0052.12AAA PublicPeach County0.94632 - 032Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAA
45919.0051.92AAAAAStatesboro0.54826 - 242Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
45919.0051.28GIAA AAAA-AAABrookstone0.69828 - 217Stratford AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0051.15AAAACass0.93635 - 1025CedartownAAAA
45919.0050.81AAAAAASouth Gwinnett0.88628 - 721Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
45919.0050.08A Division I PublicLamar County0.60822 - 202Westside (Macon)AA Public
45919.0049.99AAAAABrunswick0.96535 - 035GreenbrierAAAAA
45919.0049.69Smaller PrivateAthens Academy0.81830 - 1614CommerceA Division I Public
45919.0049.28AAAAAAMill Creek0.97237 - 037Mountain ViewAAAAAA
45919.0049.06AAAANorth Oconee0.99742 - 042East ForsythAAAA
45919.0049.06AAAAM.L. King0.60620 - 146Pace AcademyAAAA
45919.0049.04AAAAAllatoona0.72630 - 219DaltonAAAA
45919.0048.89A Division I PublicBleckley County0.72326 - 1610Washington CountyA Division I Public
45919.0048.78GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy0.62924 - 204Brentwood SchoolGIAA AA-A
45919.0048.13AAA PublicLumpkin County0.72828 - 208ChestateeAAA Public
45919.0047.76Smaller PrivateLovett0.8326 - 1016KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA Public
45919.0047.42AAAAAAHillgrove0.9835 - 035PebblebrookAAAAAA
45919.0047.11AAAAAArabia Mountain0.54822 - 211DecaturAAAAA
45919.0046.76AAAAARome0.98640 - 040AlexanderAAAAA
45919.0046.29AAAAAKennesaw Mountain0.51624 - 231Lithia SpringsAAAAA
45919.0046.23AAAAAEffingham County0.88931 - 1318South EffinghamAAAAA
45919.0046.14A Division I PublicGordon Lee0.56422 - 211Christian HeritageSmaller Private
45919.0046AAA PublicPickens0.88630 - 1317Dawson CountyAAA Public
45919.0045.8A Division I PublicThomasville0.96835 - 035Bacon CountyA Division I Public
45919.0045.49A Division I PublicTemple0.65327 - 216PepperellA Division I Public
45919.0045.4A Division I PublicHaralson County0.58523 - 212DarlingtonSmaller Private
45919.0045.27AA PublicNorth Murray0.81328 - 1414Union CountyAA Public
45919.0044.87AAAAAGlynn Academy0.87228 - 1216Lakeside (Evans)AAAAA
45919.0044.67AA PublicRinggold0.87731 - 1417Lakeview Ft. OglethorpeAA Public
45919.0044.56AAAAALassiter0.67928 - 217PopeAAAAA
45919.0044.37AAAAADunwoody0.73527 - 1710Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAA
45919.0044.31AAAAAAMcEachern0.99341 - 041Paulding CountyAAAAAA
45919.0044.18AA PublicEast Jackson0.82133 - 2013East HallAAA Public
45919.0043.95A Division IIManchester0.68921 - 147Chapel HillAAAAAA
45919.0043.66AAAAWalnut Grove0.8624 - 618Cedar ShoalsAAAA
45919.0043.55AAAAAWoodward Academy0.98636 - 036ChambleeAAAAA
45919.0043.15AAA PublicWestover0.84427 - 819JacksonAA Public
45919.0042.64AAAAASprayberry0.97336 - 036RiverwoodAAAAA
45919.0042.16Smaller PrivateHoly Innocents0.91728 - 028TherrellAA Public
45919.0041.85GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy0.56826 - 224Strong Rock ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0041.85AAA PublicLaFayette0.53321 - 201AdairsvilleAAA Public
45919.0041.38A Division IIEmanuel County Institute0.70824 - 159Bryan CountyA Division II
45919.0041.07AAAAAAAlpharetta0.85228 - 1315Forsyth CentralAAAAAA
45919.0041.07Smaller PrivateSavannah Country Day0.73824 - 1410Tattnall CountyAA Public
45919.0041.02AAA PublicNorth Hall0.94934 - 628White CountyAAA Public
45919.0040.67A Division IIMount Zion (Carroll)0.59621 - 192Pike CountyAA Public
45919.0040.62A Division I PublicElbert County0.78527 - 1413Oglethorpe CountyA Division I Public
45919.0039.64GIAA AAAA-AAAFirst Presbyterian0.84627 - 1215Westfield SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0039.6AAA PublicLong County0.7428 - 208BeachAAA Public
45919.0039.6A Division IISchley County0.65324 - 195Crawford CountyA Division II
45919.0039.48Smaller PrivateWhitefield Academy0.89632 - 1319St. Anne-PacelliGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0039.31A Division IIScreven County0.58220 - 173McIntosh County AcademyA Division II
45918.0039.3AAA PublicHephzibah0.54124 - 222HowardAAA Public
45918.0038.91A Division I PublicBremen0.78527 - 1413ModelA Division I Public
45919.0038.55AAA PublicMonroe0.90231 - 1021PelhamA Division II
45919.0038.18A Division I PublicDodge County0.86929 - 1316East LaurensA Division I Public
45919.0037.7AAAAAADuluth0.94235 - 827MeadowcreekAAAAAA
45919.0037.46AAAAANorthgate0.9835 - 035BannekerAAAAA
45919.0037.31A Division IIWheeler County0.64121 - 165Dooly CountyA Division II
45919.0036.66AA PublicCarver (Columbus)0.99141 - 041ColumbusAA Public
45919.0036.38AA PublicSumter County0.96734 - 034ShawAA Public
45919.0036.27Smaller PrivateFellowship Christian0.98436 - 036King's Ridge ChristianSmaller Private
45919.0036.19AA PublicFranklin County0.85128 - 1315West HallAAA Public
45919.0035.74AAAAAShiloh0.9127 - 027Tri-CitiesAAAAA
45919.0035.72AAAAMarist0.99641 - 041Druid HillsAAAA
45919.0035.34AAAAALoganville0.66621 - 147ApalacheeAAAAA
45919.0034.9AA PublicRockmart0.98238 - 038Coahulla CreekAA Public
45919.0034.62AA PublicAppling County0.9735 - 035Miller CountyA Division II
45919.0034.45AAAAAWinder-Barrow0.84931 - 1516AlcovyAAAAA
45919.0034.26AAAACentral (Carrollton)0.99442 - 042Mundy's MillAAAA
45919.0034.22AAAACartersville0.99848 - 048Woodland (Cartersville)AAAA
45919.0034.08AAA PublicHeritage (Ringgold)0.93734 - 727RidgelandAAA Public
45919.0033.66A Division I PublicPutnam County0.88731 - 1318McNairA Division I Public
45919.0033.53GIAA AA-AEdmund Burke Academy0.52716 - 142Pinewood ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0033.36Smaller PrivateLandmark Christian0.89428 - 622Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
45919.0033.17A Division IIWilcox County0.89830 - 1020TreutlenA Division II
45919.0032.88AAAAANewnan0.98440 - 040MorrowAAAAA
45919.0032.81GIAA AAAA-AAATiftarea Academy0.61623 - 203Southland AcademyGIAA AA-A
45919.0032.79GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian0.61322 - 193Loganville ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0032.5AAAAAMilton0.99948 - 048ChattahoocheeAAAAA
45919.0032.14AAAAAABrookwood0.99141 - 041BerkmarAAAAAA
45919.0032.13A Division I PublicRabun County0.97435 - 035Banks CountyA Division I Public
45919.0031.75AAAAAASouth Cobb0.72723 - 149OsborneAAAAAA
45919.0031.64Smaller PrivateMount Paran Christian0.82527 - 1314Washington-WilkesA Division II
45918.0031.5A Division IIMitchell County0.7622 - 139Randolph-ClayA Division II
45919.0031A Division I PublicFannin County0.92531 - 724Dade CountyA Division I Public
45918.0030.18AA PublicCallaway0.98636 - 036RedanAA Public
45919.0030.06AAA PublicTroup0.99442 - 042Fayette CountyAAA Public
45919.0029.72AA PublicSonoraville0.93533 - 726Murray CountyAA Public
45919.0028.33A Division IIMetter0.94935 - 926PortalA Division II
45919.0028.02AAAAAABuford154 - 054DiscoveryAAAAAA
45919.0027.41A Division I PublicJasper County0.92131 - 724TowersA Division I Public
45919.0027.08GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor0.92433 - 726Terrell AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0026.46A Division I PublicGordon Central0.62626 - 215CoosaA Division I Public
45919.0026.39AAA PublicSoutheast Bulloch0.96335 - 035Windsor ForestAAA Public
45919.0025.81A Division I PublicDublin0.98838 - 038Jefferson CountyA Division I Public
45919.0024.69A Division IIMacon County0.73827 - 1611Chattahoochee CountyA Division II
45919.0024.64AAAALithonia0.96734 - 034NorthviewAAAA
45919.0024.47AAA PublicRichmond Academy0.94233 - 627Cross CreekAAA Public
45919.0023.27AAAAMidtown0.721 - 147Forest ParkAAAA
45919.0023.24Smaller PrivateMount Vernon0.89628 - 622Mount Pisgah ChristianSmaller Private
45919.0023AAA PublicLiberty County0.96235 - 629IslandsAAA Public
45919.0022.54A Division IITaylor County0.86831 - 1417Marion CountyA Division II
45918.0022.12AA PublicCarver (Atlanta)0.99641 - 041WashingtonAA Public
45919.0022.05GIAA AAAA-AAAGeorge Walton Academy0.91328 - 622Athens ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0021.61A Division IIJenkins County0.9434 - 727ClaxtonA Division II
45919.0019.99A Division IIWarren County0.85529 - 1415Glascock CountyA Division II
45919.0019.65A Division IIEarly County0.98235 - 035Terrell CountyA Division II
45919.0019.1A Division IITelfair County0.94234 - 727Montgomery CountyA Division II
45919.0018.95A Division I PublicChattooga0.58720 - 164ArmucheeA Division I Public
45919.0017.98A Division IITowns County0.69723 - 158ButlerAA Public
45919.0017.75A Division I PublicJeff Davis0.98835 - 035Brantley CountyA Division I Public
45919.0017.37AAA PublicMount Zion (Jonesboro)0.96231 - 031Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
45919.0017.27GIAA AA-ACentral Fellowship Christian0.61622 - 184Mount de SalesGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0016.93AAAAMaynard Jackson0.98140 - 040DrewAAAA
45919.0016.82A Division I PublicSouthwest0.94234 - 727Central (Macon)A Division I Public
45919.0015.21AA PublicHardaway0.52718 - 171KendrickAA Public
45919.0012.42Smaller PrivateGreater Atlanta Christian0.99543 - 043Johnson (Gainesville)AAA Public
45919.0012.01GIAA AAAA-AAAPiedmont Academy0.5826 - 215King's AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
45918.0011.69AA PublicSouth Atlanta0.93531 - 625Stone MountainAAA Public
45919.0011.27GIAA AAAA-AAAFrederica Academy0.96335 - 035Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
45919.0011.22GIAA AA-ATrinity Christian (Dublin)0.93933 - 627Thomas JeffersonGIAA AA-A
45919.0011.16GIAA AAAA-AAACalvary Christian0.96338 - 731Southwest Georgia STEMA Division II
45919.0011.12AAA PublicJohnson (Savannah)0.92632 - 725GrovesAAA Public
45919.0010.84AAAANorth Springs0.85730 - 1416ClarkstonAAAA
45919.006.27GIAA AAAA-AAARiverside Prep0.60627 - 225Heritage (Newnan)GIAA AA-A
45919.005.66GAPPS AALanier Christian0.90928 - 028Cherokee ChristianGAPPS AA
45919.003.74AA PublicSalem0.9535 - 728Glenn HillsAA Public
45919.001.09GIAA AA-ABriarwood Academy0.9635 - 035Windsor AcademyGIAA AA-A
45919.00-0.18A Division I PublicSocial Circle0.99542 - 042Utopian AcademyA Division I Public
45919.00-0.77GIAA AA-ASouthwest Georgia Academy0.98738 - 038Calhoun CountyA Division II
45919.00-2.51A Division IIGreene County0.99142 - 042Twiggs CountyA Division II
45919.00-4.08AA PublicSpencer0.99848 - 048JordanAA Public
45919.00-6.3A Division IIAtkinson County0.9935 - 035Central (Talbotton)A Division II
45919.00-7.68GIAA AA-ARock Springs Christian0.95534 - 034Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA
45919.00-18.74GIAA AA-AFlint River Academy0.99637 - 037Cross KeysAAAA

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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