The Jolt: Trump dominates Georgia presidential poll, Kemp trails far behind

News and analysis from the politics team at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Here’s some news former President Donald Trump will love. A new Georgia poll shows he is the favorite in Georgia’s GOP presidential primary, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis close behind.

The same poll shows Gov. Brian Kemp, whose name has continued to surface in GOP circles as a potential candidate, would have a daunting challenge trying to win his home state, despite his high approval ratings.

All of that is according to a Landmark Communications poll of likely Republican voters released Wednesday that showed Trump atop the GOP pile with 40% of the vote, followed by DeSantis at 32%. Kemp was at 7%, running roughly even with ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Every other contender in the poll, which involved 800 likely GOP voters who were surveyed on May 14, was in the single-digits. That includes former Vice President Mike Pence, who is nearing a run, and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who is preparing to formally launch his campaign next week.

And the poll indicated that nearly all Republicans have made up their minds at this early stage in the race, with only 6% saying they were undecided or had no opinion. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

But the poll pointed to underlying vulnerabilities for Trump. Roughly 56% of Republicans gave him a positive approval rating, compared to one-third who saw him in a negative light. Approval ratings for both DeSantis and Kemp, meanwhile, hovered around 75%.

“While people have a very favorable impression of Brian Kemp in Georgia, it’s not yet translating into votes for president,” said Mark Rountree, the head of Landmark Communications. “People simply don’t see Kemp as a candidate yet in a presidential capacity.”

Landmark included the crosstabs as a part of the poll.

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Gov. Brian Kemp has said he is not activity seeking higher office at this time. (Natrice Miller/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

COULD HE? In the 2024 buzz, a question has come to your Jolters several times. Could Gov. Brian Kemp run for president or vice president in 2024 and still remain as governor at the same time? (Kemp is not actively planning a run, but hasn’t completely closed the door, either.)

Curious Republicas have even sent us Article II, Section 2, Paragraph V of the Georgia constitution, which covers Georgia’s resign-to-run requirements.

The verdict: Yes, technically Kemp could do both at the same time.

“The plain language of Article II allows a sitting official to run for president without vacating their office,” Georgia State law professor Anthony Michael Kreis said.

The secretary of state’s office confirms that Georgia’s resign-to-run laws process does not apply to running for president or vice president.

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LISTEN UP. We’re looking at all of the 2024 dynamics in Georgia as we head toward the all-important presidential election year, from Democrats’ efforts to get voters excited about four more years of President Joe Biden to Republicans’ ongoing battles inside their tent.

We also took AJC subscriber questions during a live mail bag segment, which is included in the pod.

Listen and follow our podcast for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.

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JONESING. Just five months into his new job at the state’s second-in-command, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones sounded an awful lot like a 2026 candidate for governor during a Morgan County GOP meeting last night.

He told the packed crowd he “might” run to succeed a term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp in three years, earning a burst of applause from the audience and a hearty endorsement from county GOP chair Chris Alexander.

Just five months into his new job at the state’s second-in-command, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones sounded an awful lot like a candidate for governor in 2026 during a Morgan County GOP meeting last night. (Arvin Temkar/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

And he drew laughs when he noted his plans to attend the Georgia GOP convention in June even as Kemp and other statewide elected Republican officials plan to boycott it.

“It sounds like I’m the only statewide elected official going to it,” Jones said. “I hope y’all remember that.”

On running for governor:

“I might. I love the state of Georgia and I enjoy public service. … I’m a pretty straight shooter and sometimes that gets you in trouble. But I’ll tell you, I think public service is something you should do. … I think business folks ought to be in politics, I think you ought to have people there who are there for the right reasons.”

On 2024:

“If we as a country don’t get a change in leadership in the White House, a significant change in the House and Senate, we’re in trouble as a country. The trajectory we’re going right now is not sustainable.”

On conflict of interests:

“I always laugh when I get accused of doing something self-serving. I’m the only person up here who doesn’t have a family member on the payroll.”

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Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Pooler, is reportedly trying to sell a nearly 500-acre parcel of land near the site of a now-defunct spaceport project in Camden County. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

Credit: J. Scott Applewhite

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Credit: J. Scott Applewhite

SPACE OUT. U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter is trying to sell a nearly 500-acre parcel of land near the site of a now-defunct spaceport project in Camden County, the Current reports. The Pooler Republican had championed development of the spaceport, which voters rejected in a 2022 referendum.

According to the Savannah Morning News, Carter bought the huge tract in 2018 and, about a month later, led a Georgia delegation letter to the Federal Aviation Administration to urge approval of the nearby spaceport.

He initially paid $2,050,000 for the property and told the News that it was meant for fishing, not development, so did not need to be disclosed.

It’s now on the market for $4.25 million and, according to the real estate group listing it, “offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, convenience, and development potential.”

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Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens was not yet may when the controversial Atlanta Public Safety Training Center was approved. (Jason Getz/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

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Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

DICKENS WEIGHS IN. Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens was not mayor when the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center was approved, a move that happened under former Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

But Dickens is making the case for the facility now in the face of mounting activist opposition with a commentary in today’s AJC. He writes, in part:

For many months, the conversations about this facility have been fueled by fear, misinformation and an “us vs. them" mindset.

I want to offer another perspective, grounded in facts, that speaks to my commitment as your mayor. First, the Atlanta Public Safety Training Center will not be “cop city." The training center is about comprehensive public safety. Recent incidents like the tragic shootings in Midtown and Atlantic Station show that when a crisis hits, we rely on all our first responders to be on top of their game.

- Andre Dickens, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

The AJC’s Riley Bunch reports that nearly 300 opponents signed up to speak out against the facility at Monday’s city council meeting, which lasted more than seven hours to accommodate the extra speakers.

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Two Democrats will face off in a June runoff to fill the vacant seat in Georgia House District 68. (Arvin Temkar/The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

HEADED TO RUNOFF. Mark Baker and Derrick Jackson, both Democrats, will face off in the June 13 runoff in the race for the vacant Georgia House District 68 seat.

Baker and Jackson each received about a third of Tuesday’s vote, the AJC’s Mark Niesse reports. The remaining voters were split among three defeated candidates: Taiwo Idowu, Jane Williams and John Culbreth.

Baker is a former City of South Fulton councilman. Jackson previously represented the same seat in the state House before resigning to run for statewide office in 2022.

The winner will take the seat previously held by state Rep. Tish Naghise, a first-term Democrat from Fayetteville who died in March.

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U.S. Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) leaves federal court in Central Islip, N.Y., May 10, 2023. The scandal-plagued congressman, who ran on a life story littered with lies, was charged in a wide-ranging indictment with wire fraud, money laundering, stealing public funds and lying on federal disclosure forms. (Johnny Milano/The New York Times)
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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

  • The House will vote on policing-related legislation and could consider a Democratic resolution to expel U.S. Rep. George Santos, R-New York, from Congress.
  • House and Senate Republicans will host a news conference on debt ceiling negotiations.
  • President Joe Biden will award the Medal of Valor to nine first responders, including two New York City police officers who died in the line of duty.

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Democrats from both chambers of Congress, led by Georgia’s U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson, gathered outside the Supreme Court Tuesday to back legislation to expand the number of justices from nine to 13. (Nathan Posner for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

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Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

EXPANDING THE COURT. Democrats from both chambers of Congress, led by Georgia’s U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson, gathered outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday to back legislation to expand the number of justices from nine to 13.

Johnson, D-Lithonia, is the primary sponsor of the House bill, which has more than 50 cosponsors. It is also backed by a coalition of 40 progressive organizations, including Planned Parenthood and Demand Justice.

Johnson sponsored similar legislation during the last congressional session. This year’s proposal has an even slimmer chance of passage in a GOP-controlled House.

But that didn’t stop him from making his case.

“Today, the six-to-three far-right supermajority on the United States Supreme Court threatens our rights, our democracy and our planet,” Johnson told the crowd. “To restore our democracy, we must expand the United States Supreme Court, and we must do so now.”

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PERSONNEL MOVES. U.S. Rep. Rick Allen, R-Augusta, has a new communications director: Augusta native Carlton Norwood Jr.

Norwood is the grandson of the man who once held Allen’s seat: former U.S. Rep. Charlie Norwood. He worked for Allen’s office previously and returns after stints with the Agriculture and Education and Labor committees.

Allen’s previous Communications Director, Michael Plummer, is heading to Pennsylvania to work for a statewide business group. And former Press Secretary Chile Emenuga took a similar role in the office of U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, who chairs the Intelligence Committee.

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The "Miller" family of goslings hatched in the parking lot of the Georgia Student Finance Commission on Mother's Day. (Courtesy photo)

Credit: Courtesy photo

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Credit: Courtesy photo

DOG OF THE DAY. It’s time to meet our very first Geese of the Day: the Millers.

These little guys started life in the parking lot of the Georgia Student Finance Commission, where the GSFC staff first spotted a nest with six eggs. Protecting the nest became a mini-mission of the staff of the state agency that tends to fly below the radar.

They blocked parking spots near the nest with cones and even went in on weekends to make sure Mama Goose had water. The goslings hatched on Mother’s Day and were named after, yes, Gov. Zell Miller, the man who created the state’s Hope Scholarship program.

The Millers recently ventured out around the Tucker area, including at a nearby reservoir and grocery store. But a source tells us the GSFC staff still keep a watchful eye out for the babies they met on Mother’s Day.

Send us your animals of any political persuasion — dogs, cats, geese, etc., to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, or DM us on Twitter @MurphyAJC.

The "Miller" family of geese making their wat through a Tucker parking lot. (Courtesy photo)

Credit: Courtesy photo

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Credit: Courtesy photo

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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.