New warning signs emerge for Collins ahead of Atlanta fundraiser

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Democrats say new polling shows they have an opening to flip the Georgia House.
• Mike Collins seeks to turn Jon Ossoff’s “Epstein class” attacks back on him.
• The Center for American Opportunity & Excellence releases its annual State of Black America report.

More headwinds

U.S. Rep. Mike Collins speaks during the Georgia Chamber Congressional Luncheon in Athens last month. (Hyosub Shin/AJC)

Mike Collins could really use a lift from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Gov. Brian Kemp at Thursday night’s Atlanta fundraiser. He’s heading into it with a fresh stack of warning signs.

A new YouGov poll has Collins trailing Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff by double-digits among registered voters.

Politico reported that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from Georgia to prioritize on closer races.

And the Cook Political Report moved the Georgia race to a “likely Democratic” win, tabbing the race in deep-red Kansas as a more competitive contest.

Now comes another hit: New Engagement PAC launched a seven-figure campaign tying Collins and Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson to President Donald Trump’s healthcare agenda.

The left-leaning group says the statewide cable, radio and streaming campaign will focus on younger voters and voters of color.

Its spot, “Even More Expensive,” argues the two Republicans backed Trump policies that would increase healthcare costs rather than expand access.

The group also ran a turnout effort in last year’s Public Service Commission races, when Democrats flipped both seats by huge margins.

Collins voted for Trump’s 2025 tax-and-spending law, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will reduce projected federal Medicaid spending by about $1.2 trillion from 2026 through 2035.

Jackson recently proposed what he calls an “intelligent Medicaid expansion” that would preserve work requirements for some recipients while increasing enrollment without fully expanding Medicaid.

Things to know

College athletes have benefited from name, image and likeness deals and the transfer portal, though the pending Protect College Sports Act could reshape the rules governing both. (Jason Getz/AJC)

Good morning! Here are three things to know for today:

• An Immigration and Customs Enforcement vehicle stop in Georgia ended in hospitalization for a Guatemalan man after he was “pinned” under the agency vehicle, according to a Georgia State Patrol report, writes Lautaro Grinspan.
• Voting records in Georgia and Nevada show Georgia House candidate David Dillie cast ballots in both states in the 2026 primary elections, Adam Van Brimmer reports.
• The U.S. Senate is nearing final approval of a sweeping sports bill that would create national standards for name, image and likeness contracts in college sports, but Georgia’s two Democratic senators are split on the bill. The legislation also would clarify standards for athletes’ healthcare, academic progress and eligibility, Tia Mitchell reports.

Counter-programming

Sen. Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. (left) speaks during a news conference after a policy luncheon on Capitol Hill in July. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP)

When Thune arrives in Atlanta for his fundraiser for Collins, Democrats will give him their version of a Peach State welcome with a mobile billboard highlighting the many staff and family scandals Collins dealt with over the summer.

Those included a former chief of staff previously under a Congressional Ethics investigation, a second chief of staff dismissed after trying to secure the release of a Holocaust denier from prison, a son-in-law who repeatedly posted racist and pro-Nazi content, and a former fundraising consultant posted Ku Klux Klan and Nazi imagery on his own social media.

Collins has distanced himself from the former staffers and denounced the Klan imagery. In the case of his son-in-law, Collins said nobody speaks for him.

The Democrats’ billboard will be routed around Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

“Instead of fundraising for a scandal-ridden candidate and his collapsing campaign, Sen. John Thune should fully denounce Mike Collins’ well-documented neo-Nazi ties,” said Democratic Party spokesman Devon Cruz.

Epstein class

U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff speaks at a joint campaign rally with Democratic candidate for governor Keisha Lance Bottoms in Atlanta in May. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Collins is trying to turn Ossoff’s “Epstein class” attacks back on the Democrat.

Collins told Fox News that Ossoff should return billionaire Reid Hoffman’s $7,000 campaign donation, calling him a “hypocrite.”

Hoffman, the LinkedIn cofounder who has acknowledged visiting Jeffrey Epstein’s private island, also gave $1 million to New Engagement PAC, an independent group backing Ossoff. Hoffman has apologized for his association with Epstein, and he was never accused of any wrongdoing.

Ossoff’s campaign declined to comment. The Democrat has attacked Collins’ vote last year to block a Democratic effort to force the release of the Epstein files. As we reported in July, Collins later voted to release the records after Trump backed their disclosure.

New Engagement PAC operates independently of Ossoff’s campaign, which cannot coordinate with the group on its independent spending or messaging.

‘Striking distance’

The Georgia State Capitol dome is shown through the windows of the Nathan Deal Judicial Center in June. (Jason Getz/AJC)

Democrats need to flip 10 seats in the Georgia House to take hold of the majority for the first time since 2004. And a new poll of voters in battleground areas, they argue, shows pathways to get them there.

The party is expecting to flip House Districts 48, 53, 99 and 105 — all which are in Atlanta’s northern and eastern suburbs. The test will be whether they can capture six more across 16 contested districts while holding onto seats they already have.

The Georgia House Democratic Caucus, voting rights group Fair Fight and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee released results Wednesday from a sponsored poll showing Democratic candidates tied or finished ahead in 12 of the most competitive districts — particularly in Atlanta’s growing suburbs — when voters were presented a choice between them and their Republican opponent.

The trick is that those dozen districts favor reelection for the Republican incumbent and only moved into the Democratic column when voters were given positive messages about the Democratic candidate and negative ones for the Republican. But the Democratic organizations behind the polling see light at the end of that tunnel.

“We have a once in a generation opportunity to win the House this year,” said Fair Fight Executive Director Lauren Groh-Wargo. “We are within striking distance.”

The last time Democrats saw that level of success in State House races was in 2018 when they flipped 11 seats.

Listen up

Keisha Lance Bottoms, the Democratic nominee for governor, holds a news conference in Marietta earlier this month. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, strategist Tharon Johnson joins to discuss Keisha Lance Bottoms’ campaign for governor, including Bottoms’ record as Atlanta mayor, and the candidates’ competing approaches to data centers, Medicaid expansion and more.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Black America

New U.S. Census Bureau estimates released in June found that 33% of Georgia's new residents between 2020 and 2025 are Black, according to an AJC analysis. (Photo Illustration: Philip Robibero/AJC; Sources: Getty Images, Pexels)

A new report from a conservative think tank found that median wealth had increased for Black families in recent years, and fewer Black people are living in poverty.

But other indicators show persisting disparities, with Black people less likely to own homes and having a lower median income compared to white households.

The State of Black America report was published this week by the Center for American Opportunity & Excellence, a policy arm of the Black Conservative Federation. Diante Johnson, the organization’s leader, said the report provides a blueprint for how Republicans can find inroads with Black voters in the south 2026 and even beyond.

“It tells us that conservative principles lift our community up out of poverty,” Johnson said. “It shows us that with conservative principles we can make sure that our children are literally the best and the brightest. Conservative principles work when they’re allowed to work.”

The report found that 56% of Black Americans live in the South and that Georgia has the third-largest number of Black residents among all states, based on 2020 census data. Black people are moving to the same fast-growing cities as other racial groups, the report said, drawn by the availability of jobs and housing.

The organization plans to use these findings as a blueprint to shape its organizing and recruitment efforts, particularly after the midterms when the focus turns to the 2028 presidential election.

Today in Washington

• Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House, including a military review and formal state dinner.
• The Senate will take more procedural votes on the Protect College Sports Act.
• The House is out until after the midterms.