Georgia’s 14th District runoff reveals significant shift to Democrats
Today’s newsletter highlights
- Tanya Miller picks up an important endorsement.
- Greg Dolezal’s new ad makes his pitch to the MAGA base.
- Lawmakers increasingly use taxpayer‑funded accounts to raise their profiles ahead of elections.
Noteworthy swing
Back in 2017, when Jon Ossoff was just emerging on the political scene, he harnessed anger at President Donald Trump to narrowly miss flipping a special election to represent Atlanta’s then-conservative northern suburbs — a loss that hinted at a coming shift.
A year later, Lucy McBath did flip that same seat. Ossoff turned his defeat into a Senate victory in 2020. And those once reliably red suburbs are now firmly blue.
We’re not saying that same trajectory is unfolding in deep-red northwest Georgia, where a November rematch is already brewing after Republican Clay Fuller staved off Democrat Shawn Harris in Tuesday’s runoff.
But we are saying this: don’t ignore a 25-point swing between Trump’s 2024 performance in the 14th District and Fuller’s victory Tuesday to fill the remainder of Marjorie Taylor Greene’s term.
Two things can be true at once. Republicans avoided a humiliating defeat in the Trumpiest district in Georgia, delivering a needed win for Fuller and a collective sigh of relief for the GOP.
But Democrats again outperformed expectations in a test of Trump’s domestic and foreign policy agenda on deeply friendly turf — a district he carried with roughly two-thirds of the vote in 2024. Fuller won it by just 12 percentage points.
That swing is so large, The New York Times reports that it’s the biggest shift in a congressional race since Trump returned to the White House.
A few factors help explain it. Shawn Harris proved to be a strong fit for the district, branding himself a centrist “dirt road Democrat” who could connect with MAGA voters.
He’s a former U.S. Army brigadier general who criticized the war against Iran, appealing to “America First” voters suspicious of foreign entanglements. He’s a cattle farmer who’s critical of Trump’s domestic agenda, including tariffs that have exacted a toll on many in Georgia’s agriculture industry.
Republicans, of course, have every right to be exultant about the win. Fuller did plenty on his side of the ledger — securing Trump’s full-throated endorsement, consolidating the GOP base after a crowded first round and squeezing out more hard-line rivals. He ran a disciplined campaign that avoided major missteps and kept the focus on turning out Republican voters.
And he had the advantage of the fundamentals. This is one of the most reliably Republican districts in the state, and even with a narrower margin, Fuller’s victory underscores just how difficult it is for Democrats to break through in terrain like this.
But the underlying numbers tell a more complicated story.
Democrats can point to the scoreboard for signs of hope: every county in the district shifted left compared to 2024 — including roughly a 30-point swing in Floyd County. That suggests something bigger than just candidate dynamics.
For Republicans, it’s a reminder that even safe seats aren’t locks. For Democrats, it’s not a breakthrough. But if those kinds of swings erode into GOP margins in November, the political map could start to look very different.
Things to know
Good morning! Here are three things to know for today:
- Experts say U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s “Worst of the Worst” list doesn’t give a “reliable or neutral picture” of dangerous immigrants allegedly removed from metro Atlanta neighborhoods, the AJC’s Lautaro Grinspan reports.
- It took 15 months, a prolonged moratorium and a zoning code revamp, but one of Georgia’s largest — and most high-profile — data center projects will move forward, the AJC’s Zachary Hansen reports.
- Georgia’s most popular beach is thinning and the federal funds to fatten up the shore won’t be coming as scheduled, the AJC’s Adam Van Brimmer reports.
To be frank
One of the many perks of being a member of Congress is a “franking” budget for members to pay for billboards, mailers, TV and radios ads, and even robocalls to communicate with constituents back home.
But Axios reports that the taxpayer-funded accounts are increasingly being used ahead of competitive elections by members of Congress to boost their visibility without having to spend campaign funds to do it.
Among the bipartisan group of members Axios listed as “blanketing the airwaves” with official communications ahead of a run for higher office this year is U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, the leading candidate in the three-way GOP primary for U.S. Senate.
It is perfectly legal for members of Congress to use franked communications during an election year, but Axios quotes good-government watchdogs calling for an end to the practice, since it can be easily abused.
In Collins’ case, one glossy mailer prominently features a photo of him with Trump and lists the three immigration crackdown bills the congressman recently authored or supported. The flip side says only, “DELIVERING CONSERVATIVE WINS. CONGRESSMAN MIKE COLLINS.”
Is it campaign material or government business? A spokesperson for Collins did not respond to a request for comment.
EMILY’s pick
Democratic state Rep. Tanya Miller picked up an important endorsement this week as EMILYs List named her the winner of its 2026 Gabrielle Giffords Rising Star Award, an honor for women in state and local office seen as ascending political figures.
Miller, who chairs the Georgia House Democratic Caucus, is already locked in a competitive Democratic primary for attorney general against former House Minority Leader Bob Trammell in the race to succeed Republican Chris Carr.
The award gives Miller a fresh credential as she works to distinguish herself in one of her party’s most closely watched statewide primaries.
Listen up
Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast Democratic strategist Tharon Johnson and Republican strategist Stephen Lawson join the show to assess how Georgia’s legislative session sets the stage for campaign season.
You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.
Anti-Willis
State Sen. Greg Dolezal is up with a new ad for his lieutenant governor bid that makes his pitch to the MAGA base unmistakable — and introduces a curious talking point we haven’t heard before.
In the spot, Dolezal says he “fought Fani Willis from trying to steal the election from President Trump” — a confusing line aimed at one of the GOP’s favorite targets.
That’s because Trump and his allies have long cast blame for the 2020 loss on fellow Republicans, Democrats and election officials — but not on Willis, who came later as the Fulton prosecutor investigating the effort to overturn the results.
The ad is the latest sign Dolezal is staking out the furthest-right lane in the crowded GOP race for lieutenant governor, leaning heavily on his loyalty to Trump and the Senate GOP’s yearslong campaign against Willis.
It also revives a familiar strategy for Dolezal, whose earlier campaign messaging drew backlash over an artificial intelligence-generated anti-Muslim message that quickly became fodder for rivals.
Today in Washington
- The President will participate in various meetings, including an intelligence briefing and a roundtable on “Make America Healthy Again.”
- The House and Senate are out this week.
‘Shoot ‘em’
Attorney General Chris Carr is leaning even harder into his law-and-order message as he tries to carve out a lane in the GOP governor’s race.
His campaign rolled out a new ad today centered on a growing security threat inside Georgia prisons: drones used to drop drugs, cellphones and other contraband to inmates. The spot features Carr gripping a shotgun with a determined stare as he vows to back law enforcement officers who move to take the drones down.
“We are not waiting on bureaucrats anymore,” Carr says in the ad. “I’ll defend you and anyone else in law enforcement doing the right thing: shoot ‘em down.”
It spotlights Carr’s effort to make public safety a defining theme of his campaign as he battles for oxygen while Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Rick Jackson slug it out in the crowded GOP field. It also emphasizes support from Grady County Sheriff Earl Prince, who appears in the ad and has endorsed Carr’s bid.
Meanwhile, Jones has a new TV ad attacking Jackson for the roughly $1 billion in state contracts tied to his health care company.
Dueling endorsements
Civil rights icon Andrew Young and his wife Carolyn, a civic leader and philanthropist, have endorsed Rahul Garabadu in the increasingly competitive Democratic contest for an open Gwinnett-based state Senate seat.
The nod gives Garabadu another high-profile validator as he faces state Rep. Ruwa Romman and Astrid Ross in a closely watched race.
“The progress of our nation depends on those willing to stand on the front lines of justice,” Young said. “Rahul Garabadu is that kind of leader.”
Romman, meanwhile, landed the endorsement of former gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter, who praised her “unwavering” love for Georgia.
“She’s a great state representative and will be a great state senator,” Carter said.
The dueling endorsements serve up a reminder that this race is turning into a proxy fight over dueling factions in the Democratic Party.
Shoutouts
Welcome to the world:
- John Harrison Daughtrey, son of Cook County Probate Judge Chase Daughtrey and his wife Rachel, was born Monday at Tift Regional Medical Center.
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
Before you go
A.J. Robinson has never hidden his passion for downtown Atlanta — it’s usually sitting atop his head. Known for sporting towering hats with Atlanta iconography, Robinson will step down as president and CEO of Central Atlanta Progress, downtown Atlanta’s main civic organization.
That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider information to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
Tia Mitchell is the AJC’s Washington Bureau Chief and a co-host of the "Politically Georgia" podcast. She writes about Georgia’s congressional delegation, campaigns, elections and the impact that decisions made in D.C. have on residents of the Peach State.
Patricia Murphy is the AJC's senior political columnist. She was previously a nationally syndicated columnist for CQ Roll Call, national political reporter for the Daily Beast and Politics Daily, and wrote for The Washington Post and Garden & Gun. She graduated from Vanderbilt and holds a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University.
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