Narrow elections wins and key losses show Republicans are in for a drubbing
One wonders how many warning signs Republicans need to see that they have a problem in Georgia — and nationally. But on April 7, they got another one.
Former Floyd County District Attorney Clay Fuller won the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in the 14th Congressional District. The problem is he won by 12 points. In 2024, Donald Trump won that same district by 37 points.
Republicans have a voter enthusiasm problem. In Middle Georgia, state Sen. Steven McNeel won in a February special election runoff, but the race was closer than it should have been.
In December, Democratic Rep. Eric Gisler won a special election for a state House seat designed to be a Republican seat. He won because Republicans did not turn out.
In November of last year, two Democrats won races for the Public Service Commission. Again, Democrats more enthusiastically turned out than Republicans.
Problem for GOP is playing out nationally
In Fuller’s case, Republicans have been making some excuses. His runoff election happened during spring break for parts of the district. But that does not excuse the anemic early vote totals.
Given the timing, the GOP should have emphasized early voting. Republicans also say the party was so divided that many of Fuller’s special election opponents from the GOP were hoping he would lose.
There is another election in May for the Republican primary where many of Fuller’s special election opponents are on the ballot against him there, too. That, perhaps, is the fairest argument. But it still does not fully explain such anemic turn out.
The problem for Republicans is that the turnout pattern is playing out nationally. The GOP lost a solid Texas legislative seat outside Fort Worth a few months ago. That district saw a 17-point swing toward the Democrats. The pattern has held up from Florida to New York. Historically, this pattern is a harbinger of doom for the party that holds the White House.
One mitigating factor for Republicans in Georgia is that congressional midterm elections coincide with Georgia’s statewide races. Some states will not have a unified operation to turn out the vote. Georgia will have a gubernatorial contest in November along with both the United States Senate race and the other statewide races. Both the Republican National Committee and the state Republican Party, along with outside groups, will work hard to maximize turnout. Democrats will do the same.
Trump’s lack of social media discipline hurts
One downside for the GOP is the increasingly bitter gubernatorial primary between lead contenders Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire executive Rick Jackson. If that race gets too nasty, either losing candidate could see their supporters less than enthusiastic in the general election.
Then, there is the president. He keeps giving his supporters reasons for exasperation. In just the last week he dropped an F-bomb on Easter while praising Allah, declared the destruction of an entire civilization was coming, attacked the Pope, then pushed out a picture of himself as Jesus healing the sick that he later deleted and said he thought was him as a doctor.
Numerous Trump supporters want the president to delete his social media accounts and are frustrated by the president’s lack of discipline. That will play into a general election with motivated Democrats and unenthusiastic Republicans.
The Republicans have held the 14th District; it would be a terrible sign if they did not. But the swing in the special election to the Democrats should bother them.
The Republican turn out efforts are not working well. The state Legislature should be safe, but the GOP is already fretting losing more seats in metro Atlanta. Gov. Brian Kemp is exiting office and his machine, without him leading it, will be less potent. No statewide Republican has shown an ability to mobilize voters like Kemp has done.
Perhaps the best thing the GOP in Georgia has going for it right now is the Democratic Party. The Democrats are hungry for a win but lack a real bench.
Likewise, as the GOP has drifted into an exurban and rural party, the Democrats have consolidated — even in Georgia, as an urban progressive party less aligned with the state as a whole. That will not last, however. Democrats will get hungry enough for a win that they will shed ideological alignments that put them out of step with voters.
The once mighty Republican monopoly in Georgia, like all monopolies, will turn sclerotic if it does not come up with fresh ideas to motive its voters.
Erick Erickson is host of the nationally syndicated “Erick Erickson Show,” heard weekdays from noon to 3 p.m. on WSB Radio. He is also now a contributor to the AJC.
