How does PolitiFact Georgia’s Truth-O-Meter work?
Our goal is to help you find the truth in American politics. Reporters from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution fact-check statements by local, state and national political leaders, including lobbyists and interest groups. We then rate them on the AJC Truth-O-Meter.
To fact-check a claim, reporters first contact the speaker to verify the statement. Next, the research begins. Reporters consult a variety of sources, including industry and academic experts. This research can take hours or a few days or even longer, depending on the claim. Reporters then compile the research into story form and include a recommended Truth-O-Meter ruling.
The fact check then moves on to a panel of veteran editors who debate the statement and the reporter’s recommended Truth-O-Meter ruling. The panel votes on a final ruling; majority prevails.
Obamacare, the national debt and Medicaid fraud. They all passed through the AJC Truth-O-Meter last week, courtesy of PolitiFact Georgia.
We looked at a claim by U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius about the prospects of finding an affordable health care plan in Georgia.
We also looked at Karl Rove’s long view of the situation in Ukraine.
And we examined a congressional candidate’s claim about the U.S. debt and its impact on children born today.
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Full versions can be found at www.politifact.com/georgia/.
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John McCallum, a candidate for Jack Kingston’s congressional seat: “A child born in America today will inherit $1.5 million in (federal) debt the moment they’re placed in their mother’s arms.”
The national debt has been a hot topic in recent elections. And McCallum is forecasting that a child born in America today will inherit $1.5 million in federal debt.
“For children like mine, it’s not the American Dream,” he says in a campaign ad. “It’s the American nightmare.”
A PolitiFact Georgia reader asked us to dive deep into this costly claim and see whether McCallum’s numbers are on target.
McCallum, a one-time congressional aide to Newt Gingrich and the GOP nominee for secretary of state in 1998, bases his claim in part on a website of the U.S. Senate Republican Committee on the Budget. The site allows you to enter your birth date and computes your lifetime share of the national debt.
For someone born on St. Patrick’s Day this year, the answer doesn’t seem lucky: $1,532,026.
An official in the committee’s office sent us some information: A child born in 2014 is projected to have a life expectancy of 80. The committee used a population estimate of nearly 599 million for the United States in 80 years. Some estimates we’ve seen are as high as 625 million by 2095.
The total gross debt 80 years from now is assumed to be $917.58 trillion, for a lifetime share of debt at $1.532 million, if you use the committee’s population estimate. We checked how much the average debt would be if the U.S. population rose to 625 million by 2095. Our calculation was $1.47 million.
McCallum’s estimate is based on a few assumptions. For instance, it assumes that Washington will not enact any legislation to meaningfully reduce the debt.
McCallum said a child born today will inherit $1.5 million in federal debt. That forecast is about 10 times what the current debt is per taxpayer, but subject to change.
With that caveat, we rated McCallum’s statement Mostly True.
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U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius: “Here in Atlanta, if you’re 27 years old and make $25,000 a year, you can find a (health care) plan that would cost you $105 a month.”
Sebelius said during a stop in Georgia that affordable plans are available to people at HealthCare.gov.
We confirmed that a 27-year-old living in Cobb County and making $25,000 a year can qualify for the lowest bronze plan and $105-a-month premiums.
But there are several caveats to consider.
The premium wouldn’t be nearly that low were it not for a monthly tax credit of $61. The maximum out-of-pocket expenses for that Cobb resident will be $5,200, which for some can be, or seem, cost-prohibitive. And lastly, plan costs can vary widely across the state.
As of March 1, 139,371 Georgians had signed up for a marketplace plan. Of those, 85 percent qualify for federal subsidies, HHS data show.
John Crew, a health care consultant who primarily works in rural parts of Georgia, said a plan that may cost $105 a month in Atlanta can cost much more in other parts of the state.
Sebelius says, and data from HHS confirms, that health insurance is available to some Georgians for as little as $103 to $105 per month, with a qualifying tax credit. But for others, the premiums can be much higher.
Policies that come with high deductibles could discourage people from seeking medical attention. That’s something only time may tell. It’s also some context we believe is necessary to fully examine this claim.
Sebelius’ statement is accurate but needs some context to be fully understood.
We rated her statement as Mostly True.
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Karl Rove, a former top adviser to President George W. Bush: Suggested that Russian-leaning candidates would now face long odds in Ukrainian politics without the votes of supporters on the Crimean peninsula.
Earlier this month, protesters in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev ousted pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych. After a pro-western transitional government took power, Russia sent troops into Crimea — located on the country’s southeast flank and possessing a majority-Russian populace — and scheduled a referendum to determine whether Crimea should affiliate with Russia.
In the March 16 referendum, which was criticized by the West as illegal, roughly 97 percent of Crimean voters sided with secession to Russia. Within two days, Russian President Vladimir Putin had formally accepted Crimea into Russia
by signing an annexation treaty.
Rove, appearing on “Fox News Sunday” the day of the referendum, operated under the assumption that annexation would go forward.
Annexation, Rove said, “removes a million residents of the Ukraine that have provided the margin of victory for Yanukovych, the pro-Moscow prime minister in his last election.”
Such a change to the map would mean that the remainder of Ukraine, following the removal of one of its strongest pro-Russia bastions, would become more favorable electoral territory for pro-Ukrainian politicians.
In the United States, it might be analogous to gains the Democratic Party could make if Texas were to secede from the union, or gains the GOP could make if California were to quit the United States.
We wondered whether what Rove said was accurate, so we looked through results from Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election. In that election, the second and final round of voting pitted Yanukovych against pro-Ukraine politician Yulia Tymoshenko. In the final balloting, Yanukovych defeated Tymoshenko 49 percent to 46 percent.
In order for Rove to be correct, Yanukovych’s margin of victory over Tymoshenko in Crimea and Sevastopol — the two regions that joined Russia — would have to match or exceed his margin of victory in the nation as a whole.
It turns out that Rove’s claim was close but not perfect.
In Crimea and Sevastopol combined, Yanukovych beat Tymoshenko by a margin of
795,790. Nationally, though, Yanukovych beat Tymoshenko by a somewhat larger margin
— 887,909 votes.
Rove said that Russian annexation of Crimea “removes a million residents of the Ukraine that have provided the margin of victory for Yanukovych, the pro-Moscow prime minister in his last election.”
Crimea and neighboring Sevastopol were certainly bastions of support for Yanukovych in the 2010 election. But while they came close to providing his entire national margin of victory, they fell a bit short, providing 90 percent of Yanukovych’s winning margin.
We rated Rove’s claim Mostly True.
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State Rep. Edward Lindsey, R-Atlanta: Georgia has recovered more than $60 million from Medicaid fraud in the past three years.
The state has been going after people who commit Medicaid fraud, and it has been paying off, according to Lindsey, an 11th District congressional candidate.
“Since the implementation of the original Medicaid False Claims Act, which I sponsored in 2007, Georgia has recovered more than $60 million in the last three years alone,” Lindsey said in a press release March 20.
Georgia and other states have false claims acts targeting Medicaid fraud. These laws allow states to take civil action against people who swindle money from Medicaid, the state/federal program that covers health care costs for millions of low-income families, the disabled, children and the elderly.
At the state Department of Community Health, which runs the Georgia Medicaid program, officials estimate that $52.2 million was reclaimed through civil proceedings between July 1, 2010 and Feb. 17, 2014.
That’s shy of Lindsey’s forecasts. But it’s also not the full picture.
Georgia Attorney General Sam Olens’ office has gone after Medicaid fraud, both civilly and criminally. In three years, it has recovered $159.4 million for both the state and federal government, according to data submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Inspector General. Most of that money — including the $52.2 million counted by DCH, was reclaimed using the Medicaid False Claims Act, according to Olens’ office.
Our conclusion: Georgia has recovered $159.4 million lost to Medicaid fraud in three years in both federal and state money. Lindsey was very conservative in saying the amount recouped was “more than $60 million.”
We rated his statement True.
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