AJC on the trail
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will be closely tracking the presidential campaign through November 2016 all across the country, with a special emphasis on the South.
Presidential candidates and potential candidates
Republicans
Announced candidates
Dr. Ben Carson
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Former New York Gov. George Pataki
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
Likely candidates
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Ohio Gov. John Kasich
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker
Democrats
Announced candidates
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
Likely candidates
Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee
Former U.S. Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham will formally announce his presidential bid Monday in his hometown, and in a state where he casts a long shadow over the first presidential primary in the South.
While other candidates are ceding no ground to Graham, who has been in the Senate since 2003 and Congress since 1995, he has managed to freeze a lot of money and political talent in the state. He has requested allies to keep their powder dry until after the New Hampshire primary — and many are heeding his request — even as Graham’s bid remains a severe long shot premised on his hawkish foreign policy views.
But if Graham, a raconteur and staple of Sunday morning news shows, expects his many challengers for the GOP nomination to cede the Palmetto State to a native son, he’s mistaken, Republican activists and political observers in South Carolina said.
“He’s going to have his opportunity to kind of show himself to other states,” said Taylor Mason, the third vice chairman of the South Carolina GOP. “We like him in South Carolina enough to make him a pretty long-term senator. (But) I don’t know how he’s going to go over with the entire GOP primary base.”
Graham was re-elected last year to his third Senate term, but not without effort. He faced six primary opponents, including a sitting state senator, a pastor and a businessman, and won without a runoff. Graham then crushed his Democratic opponent as well as a pair of third-party candidates.
Despite his national profile and the ease with which he has consistently won in November, Graham remains something of an anomaly (he would prefer the term "maverick") among Southern Republicans. Two easy examples: He once said he'd be willing to raise taxes to save Social Security and he supports changes in immigration law that would allow some immigrants living in the country illegally to stay.
“He provides a really interesting standpoint on a lot of issues that most normal voters can agree with,” Mason said. “He’s really sensible, and the thing that a lot of people like about him in South Carolina is he doesn’t care if you agree with him.”
But in a state where the tea party still has great power, Graham risks being outflanked on the right in a presidential primary.
South Carolina ‘very much in play’
Asked whether Graham would force other candidates to leave South Carolina for him, Dona Ayers, a veteran Republican operative in South Carolina, was direct.
“Do I think they’re going to step aside for Lindsey? Absolutely not,” Ayers said. “I think South Carolina is very much in play.”
But Graham will make his presence known, she said.
“What I do know about our senator is he’s going to take everybody to school on foreign policy,” Ayers said. “He’s really going to elevate that debate.”
Graham may not keep other candidates out of this crucial primary, but he has already made an impact on it. Some top consultants, donors and activists have refused to sign on with other candidates until Graham makes his intentions official.
“I’m with Lindsey until Lindsey isn’t there,” Republican state Rep. Gary Simrill said. “He’s a consensus builder. That’s what he does. It doesn’t always play well, but it does well.”
Former Graham aides Andrew King and Caroline Wren have already started the requisite pro-Graham Super PAC to accept unlimited donations, according to National Journal.
Even his most avid backers here say Graham must first do well in one of the other early-voting states if he intends to be competitive at home. Graham has made six trips to both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to a U.S. News and World Report candidate tracker. He has hired a number of veteran Republican operatives in New Hampshire.
Those are good signs, one of Graham’s key supporters in South Carolina said. Rick Quinn and his family operate one of the top GOP consulting firms in the state and thus far are not signed on with any candidate. They, like many here, are waiting for Lindsey, as nearly everyone calls him.
“Normally by now we would be fighting over endorsements and grass-roots apparatus folks, grass-roots activists and business folks,” said Quinn, a Republican state lawmaker.
Early performance seen as key
Instead, the Quinns anticipate pushing the button on a Graham candidacy immediately after the official announcement. What happens next could depend on Iowa and New Hampshire, Quinn said.
“If he does well in New Hampshire and then comes here and wins, all of a sudden he’s starting to raise more money nationally and getting attention,” Quinn said, playing out a scenario that ends with Graham winning the nomination.
A victory in South Carolina would make Graham an interesting player in the “SEC primary” on March 1 that is expected to feature fellow Southern states Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas, among others.
Ayers, the GOP activist who is not yet supporting a candidate, said there is plenty of time for Graham to make a serious run.
“We talk about where we are in the game and how much real estate there is between now and February, and I think back to four years ago when Newt Gingrich just didn’t have a chance,” she said. “And he won this state I think right at double digits.”
Gingrich actually won by more than 12 percentage points, dominating front-runner Mitt Romney.
There is an important lesson there, too. Many of the high-profile consultants and operatives who are running Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's South Carolina campaign were on Team Romney in 2012. And while the Quinns first represented former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman in the 2012 primary, they advised Gingrich after Huntsman's early exit from the field.
There’s yet another way that Graham’s candidacy will have an impact on the race here. While no one is yielding the state to him, his presence in the race is expected to lessen the state’s legendary viciousness when it comes to politics.
Whether Graham wins or loses South Carolina, those who live and work in the political pool are unlikely to want to splash water in their senator’s face. Once this race is over, Graham will either be the GOP nominee or the state’s senior U.S. senator for another four years, meaning he will have considerable power either way.
“Some (candidates) have been smart just to get somebody else from outside the state,” Quinn said. But “they’re going to be afraid to do things that will (tick) off Lindsey.”
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