Dems can build toward future

U.S. Rep. John Barrow made the right decision for himself and the Democratic Party in declining to run for the Senate in 2014.

Could Barrow have won? His status as the Democrats’ sole remaining Southern white congressman suggests a knack for political magic, and it was tempting for Barrow and Democrats in Washington to think that he could extend that magic statewide. Tempting, but wrong.

Barrow survives in the 12th District because he has cobbled together a coalition that is well suited to that largely rural, conservative district. Like a craftsman of a disappearing art form, he is the last successful practitioner of the old Yellow Dog Democrat formula, and he deserves respect for that. But that formula represents the party’s past, not its future.

The coalition that in time will make Democrats competitive again in Georgia will include suburban and urban moderates, professional women, black voters, young people and the state’s ethnically diverse immigrant community. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has the talent, name recognition and record to appeal to that emerging coalition, but he too reaffirmed this week that he would not run for the Senate. And beyond Reed and Barrow, there are no stars on the Democratic bench with statewide impact. The truth is the Democratic Party of Georgia has no statewide brand and no face.

That doesn’t mean there’s no talent capable of making a Senate run. Michelle Nunn is a woman of accomplishment, commitment and public service, but most Georgians know her only vaguely, as Sam Nunn’s daughter. State Rep. Scott Holcomb from DeKalb County, a veteran who served in both Bosnia and Iraq, is smart, passionate and can hold his own in any forum. Former Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond has been drafted to try to fix the mess that is DeKalb County public schools, and if he can manage that feat, an already strong reputation would be burnished.

All three of those candidates are capable of reintroducing Democrats to Georgia as the party of moderation, competence, inclusion and clean governance. That’s the image the modern party must project if it is to succeed.

Now, does that mean that any of those three candidates can win in 2014? Again, probably not. With a strong campaign, they can build name recognition, experience and a statewide network, as well as relaunch Georgia Democrats as a brand. But victory is a tall order.

Then again, the intriguing example of Mack Mattingly deserves mention.

In 1980, Georgia Republicans were pretty much where the Democrats are today. Mattingly, a salesman for IBM, had served as a leader in the state GOP but had never held public office and had no name recognition. When he announced a Senate bid that year, he was perceived as a nice guy taking one for the GOP team, building the party for success sometime in the distant future.

But sometimes, the stars align. Mattingly took advantage of the fact that the four-term Democratic incumbent, Herman Talmadge, was weakened by ethical problems, a bitter primary and a divided party. On Election Night, Mattingly became Georgia’s first Republican senator since Reconstruction, a success that came well ahead of the party’s projected time frame.

As Mattingly recalled in a 2007 oral history project, he also had something else going for him:

“What they didn’t understand back then were what we call ‘demographics.’ They did not understand that the demographics of Georgia had changed… they thought it was still the same old power base of the sheriffs and things like that in the state of Georgia and the old Democratic base. And it just wasn’t.”