“From a health standpoint and economic standpoint, the very near term looks relatively bleak,” said Mike Dowdall, investment strategist with BMO Global Asset Management.
But while he says more volatility may hit the market in the near term as governments bring back restrictions, he’s still optimistic about its prospects into next year.
“If you think back to the dark days of March, you didn’t know how far we were from normalization,” he said. “People were saying it may be years. But the backdrop from a markets standpoint is just a lot different than it was in March.”
Beyond the vaccines in development, which could get everyday life closer to normal, he cited the Federal Reserve, which has already shown it can roll out bond-buying programs swiftly to support markets.
Thursday’s slip for the S&P 500 pares its gain for November down to 8.9%. If it holds there, it would still be the best month for the benchmark index since April, when the market was first exploding out of the crater created by the market’s sell-off amid pandemic panic.
Big Tech stocks, which have held out well throughout much of the pandemic, are leading the market lower. Microsoft fell 0.6 and Facebook slipped 0.1%.
Several of the stocks that would benefit most from an economy returning to normal, meanwhile, were lagging.
Financial stocks in the S&P 500, whose profits are more closely tied to the strength of the economy than Big Tech, fell 2.2% for one of the largest losses among the 11 sectors that make up the index.
While the market is showing signs of worry over the uptick in virus cases, the longer view for an economic recovery is still solid, said Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist of Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. That scenario is bolstered by the advances in vaccine development.
“At some point the vaccine means the virus ends and we get back to something normal,” he said. “I feel fairly confident going into next year.”
A report on Thursday showed that the number of layoffs across the country remains incredibly high, though it again eased by a bit. Last week, 709,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits, down from 757,000 a week earlier. It was also a better reading than economists were expecting.
But economists caution that the numbers could climb again if coronavirus counts keep rising across the country and trigger more business closures.
A separate report showed that inflation at the consumer level was weaker last month than economists expected.
Following the reports, Treasury yields slipped. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 0.90% from 0.94% late Tuesday. Trading for U.S. government bonds was closed Wednesday for Veterans Day.
In European stock markets, the French CAC 40 fell 1.5%, and Germany’s DAX lost 1.2%. The FTSE 100 in London dropped 0.7% after data showed the economy slowed in September following strong growth in the summer. That bodes ill for the autumn, when new restrictions on businesses were imposed.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% but other indexes were weaker. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.2% and stocks in Shanghai slipped 0.1%.
Chinese technology shares have taken a beating this week, losing about $290 billion in market capitalization after the government issued new proposed anti-trust regulations for digital industries, said Jeffrey Halley of Oanda.