More than 137,000 coronavirus deaths by early August, new health model predicts

A new model released by scientists at the University of Washington predicts more than 137,000 Americans will die from the coronavirus by early August.

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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said its updated death projection of 137,184 deaths comes as states reopen and social distancing requirements are eased.

The new numbers come after the institute’s May 4 forecast of 134,475 deaths.

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“The increase is explained primarily by people’s movements, as captured in anonymous mobility data from cellphones,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, the institute’s director, who acknowledged “we’re also seeing fewer deaths expected in some states but are now forecasting slower downward trajectories in deaths after states hit their peaks in daily deaths.”

In Georgia, the institute is forecasting 3,596 deaths through Aug. 4, which is down from its May 4 projection of 4,913.

Murray noted the models are not predicting a resurgence or “return to exponential growth” of the epidemic in the U.S.

The findings show during the last few weeks, five states — Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota — have seen at least a 20% increase in mobility patterns. In addition, 13 states have experienced between a 15% to 20% increase: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

“While at least some of these patterns may be related to formal easing of social distancing policies, this upward trend in movement began in several places long before state-level mandates were relaxed,” Murray said. “Unless and until we see accelerated testing, contact tracing, isolating people who test positive and widespread use of masks in public, there is a significant likelihood of new infections.”