Projections released this week show that City Schools Decatur’s enrollment will slow down over the next five years, but not by much. Thomas Sayre, CSD’s longtime statistical consultant, projects a seven percent enrollment growth by 2016-17, mostly consistent with the seven to 12 percent growth each year since 2009. That growth, Sayre believes will taper to about five percent from 2019-20 to 2020-21, mostly because of a drop in birth rates from 2010 to 2012.
But CSD will still need its $75 million bond, Sayre surmises, and then some. According to his projections by 2020-21, even if all phases get built, enrollment in most grades will still exceed schools’ capacity.
In K-3, Sayre projects an enrollment of 1,839 by 2020-21 with a capacity for 1,690 if all phases are built; at the 4/5 Academy, projected enrollment 964, capacity 920; Renfroe Middle is projected at 1,528, capacity 1,613; Decatur High’s projected at 1,803 with a 1600 capacity.
Sayre’s calling for a 2020-21 total enrollment of 6,204 (compared to the current 4,667 as of this week), but that doesn’t count annexation, and it doesn’t count his projection of 482 students coming from various developments now, or shortly to come under construction.
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