WASHINGTON -- There may be no Ted Cruz 2.0. Instead, all signs point to Cruz 2020.
The first clue came in a final pep talk to dispirited campaign staffers last week in Houston, where Cruz recalled Ronald Reagan's first failed White House bid in 1976, a prelude to his victory in 1980.
"Reagan in 1976 came up short," Cruz told them. "I suspect at that convention more than a few tears were shed. It's going to be our task to go forward and continue fighting."
The moment was captured in Cruz's last campaign video, titled "To Be Continued," a production Gawker called "the first campaign ad of 2020."
That defiance showed up again in a tweet by national campaign spokesman Ron Nehring. "Attention opponents," Nehring wrote over a photo of packing boxes strewn around an emptying Cruz headquarters. "Rent, don't buy, because we will be back."
Cruz, who bested all Republican comers but Donald Trump, has made no direct statements about a future White House run. Instead, he has announced plans to run for a second term in the Senate, where he promises to maintain the confrontational conservative stance that earned him near pariah status among his colleagues, including top Republican leaders.
"I'm going to continue fighting for the American people," Cruz recently told reporters outside his Senate office. "If fighting for the American people makes you an outsider in the Senate, then I will happily remain an outsider."
He was coy about his plans beyond that, other than to rule out a third-party run this year.
Cruz insiders and political analysts who have followed his career say all the signs point to another run in 2020, when the tea party champion will only be 49 years old.
"My guess is that he intends to run again and will run in 2020, on the presumption that it will be Hillary's midterm," said Texas GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, referring to Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
Cruz's former campaign spokesman, Rick Tyler, argues that as the leader of the party's conservative wing, Cruz would have to be one of the top figures to whom Republicans would turn.
One of Cruz's top Senate and campaign aides, national security advisor Victoria Coates, also does not rule it out. "There's no doubt in anybody's mind that this extremely talented 45-year-old politician has a bright future," she said.
Much, of course, depends on how Trump fares in the coming fall election and the four years that follow. Cruz also has denied interest in a U.S. Supreme Court nomination, an honor that could take him out of the 2020 mix.
A Trump flameout -- long predicted by Cruz -- would start the next Republican primary cycle almost immediately. Cruz would enter that fray armed with a huge fundraising apparatus, fresh lists of donors, national name recognition and a strong network of grass-roots support in the early voting states.
"He would enter the 2020 race in a very strong position," Mackowiak said. "He would have as much support as anyone I can think of."
Back to bomb-throwing?
Cruz and his campaign aides say few Republicans - inside or outside the "establishment" - are better positioned to pick up the pieces of what he calls the "remnant" of the political right. "What we accomplished is frankly insane," he told his aides. "Nobody thought we had a prayer. What we did collectively here is, we sparked a fire and started a movement. That's powerful, and it doesn't go away with one election result."
The leader of that movement, according to Texas tea party activist JoAnn Fleming, is none other than Cruz, the candidate who became the tip of the conservative #NeverTrump spear.
As he returns to his day job in the Senate, however, Cruz faces a crossroads: Does he enhance his national stature by mending fences and working to get things done within the strictures of Senate comity? Or does he play bomb-thrower and excite the national political base he would need for another White House bid?
In his first week back, Cruz has sent mixed signals, keeping friends and foes guessing. He has pledged to work constructively on tax reform and touted the policy changes he wrought in a new defense policy bill in the Armed Services Committee.
Then he voted against the very same defense bill he had amended, citing irreconcilable differences over a provision mandating draft registration for women.
More broadly, Cruz told reporters that it is the political culture of Washington that needs to change, not him.
"This election cycle should be a wake-up call to Washington, D.C.," he said as he returned to his Senate office. "The frustration, the volcanic anger with Washington, was echoed throughout this election."
Despite the swagger, his aides say he returns to the Senate with the same disciplined work ethic that brought him success on the campaign trail. "These things don't happen in a vacuum," Coates said. "His immediate goal is to do his job."
That does not mean that he plans to back down from the ideological fights that saw him clash with his own party's leaders over the 2013 government shutdown and a later showdown over the U.S. Export-Import Bank, when Cruz called Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell a liar.
"For (Cruz), it's not personal," Coates said. "He is what he is. The sotlight is brighter and the microscope is more intense, but I think you're going to see him doing pretty much what he's always done."
Senate leaders express wariness. "You have to be impressed with the sophistication of his campaign organization," said Texas U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the Republican whip. "The unknown is what his plans are for the next couple of years in the Senate. That's what I'm interested in."
'A new front'
Outside political analysts say the Senate provides the perfect foil for a national political figure bent on highlighting Washington dysfunction.
"The Senate allows you to stay in the spotlight, even if your day-to-day life is very frustrating," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
At the same time, Jillson is bearish on Cruz's prospects for enacting meaningful tax reform, a project that has eluded lawmakers with far more experience and much better relationships in Congress, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Texas Republican Kevin Brady, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.
Moving legislation in the famously chummy Senate often depends on playing nice with colleagues -- not something for which Cruz is known. "Judging from his first day back, he's not going to make many changes in his personal style or demeanor, which almost guarantees he'll get next to almost nothing done," Jillson said.
Coates countered that, despite Cruz's reputation as a Washington outsider -- an image he played up on the campaign trail - he actually has a penchant for the inside game.
"He enjoys the Senate. He enjoys the debate," she said. "He enjoys the opportunity to shape policy and shape legislation, to engage his constituents. It's a dirty little secret, but he actually likes it."
With the nation focused on the likely contest between Trump and Clinton, some congressional observers wonder whether there will be much policy to shape for Cruz or anyone else in the Senate.
"The Senate's not going to do much the rest of this year," said University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias. "I don't think Cruz would have to be that busy."
Cruz is signaling, however, that he still has plenty to do. On Friday, as his presidential campaign office was being vacated, Cruz sent out a fundraising email highlighting a dismissive remark from his old congressional nemesis, former House Speaker John Boehner: "Thank God that guy from Texas didn't win."
Cruz wrote: "This is just another sign that the establishment in Washington has learned nothing over the past year. Our movement now faces a new front."
About the Author
