Summer air fares rise as industry shrinks

Europe trips from Atlanta: $1,805.65, $1,915.47, 6.1%

Specific destinations from Atlanta

Atlanta-New York (JFK, LaGuardia and Newark): $284.81, $311.63, 9.4%

Atlanta-Orlando: $227.19, $246.05, 8.3%

Atlanta-Los Angeles: $407.97, $441.80, 8.3%

Source: Airlines Reporting Corp., based on settled tickets from travel agencies purchased for travel between Memorial Day and Labor Day, including taxes and fees. Includes only tickets purchased before March 31.

Shopping for bargain flights this summer? Good luck with that.

Travelers can expect to see some of the highest fares in recent memory — a byproduct in part of airline mergers that have reduced the number of competitors nationally and shrunk flight schedules from Atlanta in particular.

Fares in Atlanta have risen faster than in other parts of the country, and are forecast to be higher than last summer.

Prices for domestic flights from Atlanta are up 1.4 percent this year from last summer while Europe fares are up 6.1 percent, according to the Airlines Reporting Corp., which analyzes fares purchased from online travel agencies like Orbitz, Expedia and Travelocity, as well as from traditional travel agencies.

“If you want to leave on the most popular days and the most convenient flights, you’re probably going to pay the most you have in history,” said Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.

The average roundtrip ticket price from Atlanta to New York for summer travel this year is $311.63, up from $284.81 last year, according to the ARC data. For Atlanta to London roundtrips, the average fare is $1,896, up from $1,729 a year ago.

The airline industry says fares are still “an unmatched bargain” on an inflation-adjusted basis. And people with flexible schedules and time to book well in advance can often find lower options through diligent online shopping.

Fares have been pushed up in recent years in part by fuel costs, one of the biggest expenses at any carrier. Airlines also emerged from a round of bankruptcies a decade ago determined to fly at a higher financial altitude, which experts say is ultimately better for both the industry and consumers.

But the increases also coincide with consolidation that has cut the number of major players.

In Atlanta, hometown giant Delta Air Lines bought Northwest Airlines in 2008, and more recently, Southwest Airlines acquired AirTran Airways and its Atlanta hub in 2011.

Southwest has cut AirTran schedules as it prepares to discontinue the AirTran name at the end of the year.

Southwest and AirTran combined carried 869,918 Atlanta passengers in November 2013. That’s down more than 20 percent from AirTran’s passenger count in November 2010, and down 30 percent from the more than 1.4 million passengers AirTran carried in November 2007.

Six years ago, AirTran had a 19 percent market share at Hartsfield-Jackson International. Now, Southwest and AirTran combined handle 11 to 12 percent of the traffic.

When it had a sizable presence in Atlanta, “AirTran did put a damper on fares” in Atlanta, said George Hobica, founder of Airfarewatchdog.com. “They always forced Delta to lower fares, and that fact is no longer there.”

Delta, meanwhile, now holds more than 82 percent of the market share, up from closer to 70 percent six years ago. That means Atlanta’s two largest carriers control 93 percent of the market.

“What Atlanta needs is another low-cost carrier to get some base,” Hobica said.

As Delta gains market share, spokesman Trebor Banstetter said: “Atlanta is a very competitive market, and we feel like we have a unique product to offer to our customers.”

Seaney said the markets AirTran and Southwest no longer fly to — such as Atlanta to Charlotte and to Tampa — will likely see the biggest fare increases because of the reduced competition.

“There’s the winners and losers, and certainly those routes that got dropped are going to be big losers in this,” Seaney said.

Southwest spokesman Chris Mainz said the decisions to leave a market are “difficult.”

“We realize it’s a difficult transition for the Atlanta travelers,” Mainz said. “For us, it’s driven by demand,” and for Atlanta, that means local demand rather than connecting traffic that AirTran depended on for its hub.

Elsewhere, United has merged with Continental and American has merged with US Airways, leaving four large carriers that divvy up most national traffic.

Hartsfield-Jackson had the highest and second-highest average fare increase in the two most recent quarterly federal air fare reports. Atlanta fares rose 22.6 percent year-over-year in the third quarter of 2013, including the peak summer months of July and August, and 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

But there are deals to be had in some markets, such as low fares last month for flights to the Caribbean, Hobica said.

“There are still going to be fare wars between United, Delta, Southwest and American, but they’re just not the way they used to be when we had ten fairly large airlines,” Hobica said.

Travelers should start shopping for flights three months out for the best prices, consider flying on the cheapest days — Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday — and at the cheapest times — 6 a.m., noon and 6 p.m., Seaney said.

“Airlines are charging a significant premium for their most convenient nonstops,” Seaney said. “Plus, international flying is extremely expensive.”

One strategy when flying to Europe is to fly to an alternate city and then take a low-cost carrier or train to your destination city, said Patrick Surry, chief data scientist for Hopper.com. Taking a flight within Europe can be cheaper than the premium paid for a flight to a high-demand city, he said.

In Europe, “it’s a really competitive market,” Surry said. “You’ve got all these different national and international carriers.”