Metro Atlanta at a crossroads as issues build

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Metro Atlanta is in trouble.

Hogwash, you say. Headlines read “Mercedes Chooses Atlanta” and “Comcast to hire 1,000.” Only a cynic would impugn the region’s economic bona fides.

But don’t be lulled by shiny corporate baubles which, ultimately, offer a few well-paying jobs and chamber of commerce bragging rights. There is rot in metro Atlanta’s economic foundation. Left unattended, it could lead to stagnation or decline.

The region faces a critical juncture — an “inflection point” — in its history. Unclog traffic, better educate children, find a century’s supply of water, create more decent-paying jobs, cooperate regionally and the 22d century could belong to Atlanta.

We’d be the Chicago of the South: a world-class region and revived economic powerhouse.

Or we could become another St. Louis: a once-booming, now-struggling city.

INTERACTIVE GRAPHIC: Tales of 3 cities

Statistics compiled by the AJC in our earlier Atlanta Forward 2015 report showed metro Atlanta losing economic ground against Sunbelt competitors like Dallas and Charlotte. The region’s economy shrank by 1 percent between 2007 and 2013. Charlotte’s grew by 10 percent, Dallas’ by 14 percent.

Metro Atlanta employs fewer people than before the recession. Dallas employs 8 percent more, Charlotte 6 percent more.

Today’s report examines pivotal factors that pushed Chicago ahead — and made St. Louis a cautionary tale.

A century ago, the Missouri city was the nation’s fourth-largest, a manufacturing and transportation giant. Today, it’s the 27th largest city, riven by racial, economic and political problems that fueled the Ferguson nightmare.

“Atlanta is at a historical inflection point as a regional community,” said Doug Hooker, executive director of the Atlanta Regional Commission. “We need to re-examine, revisit and recreate the institutions and economic mechanisms to continue to grow in a healthy, thriving way as we did in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

“If (we don’t), we’ll still be a major city in the Southeast, but we certainly won’t be the premier city in the Southeast.”

Graceful aging

Cities, like people, grow up, navigate middle age and get older. The successful ones – New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Toronto, Singapore, London, Sydney — thrive well into maturity.

Cities are like buildings too, said Rolf Pendall, a housing and community planning expert at the Urban Institute in Washington.

“Houses last a long time, but if you don’t keep up that old building it will lose value pretty fast,” he said. “It may start falling apart, if not maintained, or gradually become obsolete. Cities go through this maturation process over a long period of time and they need to be refurbished. If it’s done cheaply, the decline will go on a lot longer.”

Cities go through many inflection points. One of Chicago’s biggest came in the early 20th century when it turned to high-profile architect Daniel Burnham to rework the shoreline, downtown and thoroughfares — efforts reflected to this day in its vibrant downtown.

“The newer cities, like Atlanta, are going through what Chicago went through 100 years ago,” said John McCarthy, executive secretary of the Society for American City and Regional Planning History. “They’re world class cities, but they’re dealing with all the problems of growth, sprawl, traffic and a difficult economy.”

Atlanta leaders, too, made decisions that propelled the region to the top ranks of American metropolises.

Mayor Walter Sims bought an abandoned race car track in 1925 that became the world’s busiest airport. Mayor Ivan Allen Jr. embraced the Civil Rights Act of 1964, positioning Atlanta as a progressive Southern place to live and do business. Snagging the 1996 Summer Olympics – when few thought it possible – stamped Atlanta on the world’s consciousness.

Now regional leaders face challenges created by the growth. Their plan to improve traffic and add transit via a special sales tax flopped badly when voters rejected a 2012 referendum. Poor salesmanship, regional distrust and an unwieldy $7.2 billion project list doomed the plan.

Said McCarthy: “The city that’s too busy to hate is now the city too busy to plan.”

A broken model?

San Francisco (high-tech) Seattle (foreign trade, Amazon), Pittsburgh (education, health care) and even Chattanooga (recreation, high-speed Internet) re-invented themselves and now thrive.

Metro Atlanta long relied on low taxes, weak unions, warm weather, several colleges, cheap housing and Hartsfield-Jackson airport to lure businesses, college grads and African-American professionals. Other regions offer similar inducements. But that model may have run its course.

Take housing. The Center for Neighborhood Technology reports that “moderate-income” households in metro Atlanta spend 63 percent of their income on housing and transportation. Only five other large American cities are less affordable.

Demography helps dictate a region’s future. As boomers retire, millennials – 20- and 30-somethings – control many cities’ fates. The kids like to live where cars take a backseat to bikes and mass transit. Intown Atlanta has thrived of late, in part because of those amenities.

No single jurisdiction or leader can address the metro area’s transportation, water, education and economic woes. State leaders have often appeared indifferent. The ARC’s Hooker says that may be changing.

“We’re getting there, but it won’t happen overnight,” he said. “State and local leaders are developing a consensus that we definitely have to do something. A willingness to tackle the problem is the first step.”

Chicago and St. Louis offer possible visions of metro Atlanta’s future. Decisions made now could reverberate for decades.

Will we make the right choices?

ABOUT ATLANTA FORWARD 2015

Today’s special report is the second piece of the AJC’s year-long examination of the economic state of metro Atlanta.

The key question we seek to answer: as our region recovers, do we have what it takes to attract the companies, jobs and talent we need to regain our pre-recession prosperity?

The first installment, published in February, found metro Atlanta trailing two perennial economic competitors, Dallas-Fort Worth and Charlotte, in a host of economic indicators since the recession ended. You can read the first installment on myajc.com.