Hints of a blue-collar turnaround emerge

Something rare will happen this Saturday in Columbus: 150 factory workers will be hired.

Is the recession over?

Too soon to tell.

But a mini-resurgence in manufacturing -- after the staggering loss of one-fourth of Georgia factory jobs since 2006 – portends well for an economy wracked by recession and unemployment. Manufacturing, after all, is a closely watched barometer of where the economy is headed.

Georgia companies that make things are bolstering inventories, exporting more products and hiring workers. A slew of manufacturing indices points to a nascent recovery in Georgia and across the United States.

“We were losing manufacturing jobs before the recession – which only exacerbated the job losses. It was like going through hell and back,” said Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond. “Now, though, we’ve seen an uptick in manufacturing jobs. That should contribute to the recovery in a very significant way.”

Georgia was once synonymous with low-wage, blue-collar muscle. Its textile, carpet, flooring and food factories churned out products consumed worldwide.

But NAFTA, then China, gutted Georgia manufacturing. A decade ago, nearly 527,000 Georgians made things. Today, only 337,700 do. The recession accelerated the collapse.

No other Georgia industry – construction, finance, retail, information, transportation – lost as many jobs last year as manufacturing. And the losses were spread across all production sectors, including textiles, food and transportation equipment.

So it was decidedly good news when Thurmond noticed a very slight uptick – a net increase of 1,900 jobs in February -- in manufacturing. He can take further solace from a Kennesaw State University study released a week ago.

The school’s Econometric Center reported that manufacturing in Georgia continued to soar in March. Its monthly survey of 50 or so Georgia companies showed that nearly one-fourth of the respondents said they were hiring. Last November, only 8.7 percent of the companies planned to add workers.

The so-called Purchasing Managers Index also reported that manufacturers’ inventories, production and orders are all up significantly this year.

“Typically, when we go into a recession, manufacturers start losing jobs,” said Don Sabbarese, the center’s director. “But manufacturing usually leads the economy out of recession. It’s very sensitive to all of the economic conditions out there. So if manufacturing is sustaining this recovery, then we’ll start seeing growth in other sectors.”

Like trade.

In January 2009, 7,881 containers filled with paper products sailed from the port at Savannah. A year later, 14,651 paper-filled containers shipped out.

Resins, plastics, furniture, construction equipment – mostly Georgia-made – notched double, triple even quadruple rates of growth during that time period.

“China is the big driver, but we’ve seen demand pick up really everywhere around the globe,” said Curtis Foltz, executive director of the Georgia Ports Authority. “And when the U.S. and Europe start demanding the goods produced in China and Asia, that also drives demand for the goods (Georgia) supplies to China and Asia.”

There’s no guarantee, of course, that manufacturing will continue to recover. A stronger dollar, for example, could crimp exports. Domestic demand and spending might stagnate.

Manufacturing, which comprises only 8 percent of Georgia jobs, can’t single-handedly rescue the state’s economy. And it’s highly unlikely many of those factory jobs lost the last three decades to Mexico, China and Southeast Asia will return home.

Yet Georgia’s manufacturing base is much more diverse today than it was during the cut-and-sew days. Kia makes mini-SUVs in West Point and is hiring another 1,200 workers. Wood chip factories pop up almost monthly across south Georgia. Suniva produces high-tech solar cells in Gwinnett County.

And Kysor/Warren will begin adding on Saturday 150 workers in Columbus to build refrigerators for supermarkets, a sign that grocery stores are expanding, customers are loosening purse strings and unemployed factory workers will get jobs.

“Manufacturing,” said Michael Dunbar, spokesman for the Columbus Chamber of Commerce, “will still be a strong element of the economy.”

BLUE-COLLAR BLUES

Georgia manufacturing jobs the last decade, all for the month of February:

2001 – 526,900

2002 – 474,200

2003 – 459,800

2004 – 446,300

2005 – 447,600

2006 – 452,500

2007 – 437,200

2008 – 421,600