It’s easy to find national experts picking the Patriots to beat the Falcons in the Super Bowl. That makes sense because the betting public and computer simulations favor them to win. The Patriots have Tom Brady and Bill Belichik, winners of four Super Bowls.
However, a few experts are willing to go against the grain and pick the Falcons to upset the Pats. Here's a collection of them, along with their reasoning:
”As much as I love (Tom) Brady, I think the Falcons are going to take it. I just do. Because some teams just have that good old glow around them. I’m biased because I play for the Cowboys, (but) I think we’re the only team that had a shot at the Falcons. Because we would have kept Atlanta off the field. If the Patriots run game is strong that day … they’ve got a chance of beating the Falcons. But if it’s weak, the Falcons are going to blow them out.”
”It’s hard to go against Brady, but right now Atlanta’s playing as good as I’ve ever seen. The way they beat Green Bay was just so dominant. It’s going to be kind of hard to go against them.”
"They say Belichick's greatest strength is taking away one major part of your offense. That would likely mean Falcons receiver Julio Jones in this game. That would normally slow an offense, but not this Falcons offense, which is why I think they win this game. They averaged more than 40 points in two games without Jones this year. Matt Ryan also threw touchdown passes to 13 different players, a league record. In a battle of the top-ranked scoring offense and the top-ranked scoring defense, I think the offense will get the best of it here."
"Atlanta has the league's best receiver, top running back tandem and Matt Ryan — who should be the NFL's MVP. It ought to be enough firepower to beat a Patriots team missing its best player not named Tom Brady … that being injured TE Rob Gronkowski, of course."
"Even though history is telling me to pick New England in a matchup of its No. 1 scoring defense vs. Atlanta's No. 1 offense, there is something just so special about these Falcons that makes me think they'll break the Patriots. Atlanta is just so deep offensively, with two running backs, dangerous receivers alongside Julio Jones, capable tight ends and a quarterback who will cap his (likely) MVP season with a Super Bowl win."
"My pre-playoffs prediction was Patriots over Packers, but I’ve seen enough from Atlanta this postseason to switch my pick away from the Pats. The Falcons can put up points with anybody, and I don’t think the Gronk-less Patriots will quite keep up. The Falcons will spread it around to all their offensive weapons and Matt Ryan will take home MVP honors for orchestrating the show. Patriots fans will finally see Roger Goodell, but not in the way they want."
"The Falcons are averaging 40 points per game in the playoffs, and though the Patriots have the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, they haven’t faced an offense like Atlanta this season. Tom Brady will be Brady, but his receivers will let him down with drops (and a deflected interception) and Kyle Shanahan’s offense will hum one last time before he goes to San Francisco."
"In defense of my pick: In personnel, gameplan and overall cohesion, the Falcons are miles ahead of any offense Brady or the Patriots’ defense has squared off with this year, and it all starts at QB. At its best, Atlanta can chew some serious clock—go back and watch the beginning of the first quarter against Green Bay for proof. At its other best, Atlanta can demoralize you with one shot to Julio Jones—go back and watch the beginning of the third quarter against Green Bay for proof. New England’s wily defense won’t be able to stop both bests. This is a moment the franchise has built towards since Matt Ryan’s first NFL pass, a 62-yard touchdown to Michael Jenkins in 2008. It won’t be wasted."
"The Falcons are healthy. They’re loaded. They have the likely MVP as their quarterback, arguably the best receiver in football, a lethal running back tandem that splits carries and still finished No. 6 and 7 in rushing yards this season and the 2016 sack leader who would likely love to make Tom Brady look like… well, a 39-year old quarterback. But any team facing Bill Belichick’s Patriots in the Super Bowl will be labeled as the underdogs. They don’t deserve to be, and I think they’ll prove that on Sunday."
"Super Bowl LI will come down to which superstar quarterback can make the biggest plays against an all-star defense. According to SB Nation’s top minds, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have the edge."
"Though both defenses have played well throughout the playoffs, I believe this is going to be an offensive showcase. We're going to see numerous big plays downfield from both quarterbacks, but Matt Ryan is going to be just a tad better than Tom Brady. "
"The Patriots love to take away a team's primary weapon. But that's hard to do when you have the panoply of options that Matt Ryan and the Falcons possess. "
"The Patriots' defense is good, but hasn't been truly tested in this run to the Super Bowl. The Falcons' offense will cement its status as an all-time unit with a diverse attack that is able to just edge out Tom Brady in what goes down as a classic."
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