AJC Braves beat writer David O'Brien reports that left fielder Matt Kemp showed up for camp noticeably slimmer and since has looked good in the batting cage and on the base paths. That's obviously good news for the Braves, who had ordered Kemp to get in shape soon after trading for him. A lighter Kemp figures to be healthier and better in the field.
But about that last part: Can Kemp be good enough in the field in 2017 that his defense doesn't offset his offensive production? The answer is no, according to FanGraphs projections.
Two of the four main projection systems used by FanGraphs, Depth Charts (102) and Steamer (105), predict that Kemp will rate slightly above the league average of 100 in Weighted Runs Created plus. A third forecast, the crowdsourced Fans projection, says Kemp will be pretty good (112 wRC+) and a fourth predicts Kemp will be slightly below average (98). The gist of all those projections: Kemp will hit 22-30 homers but otherwise won’t get on base consistently enough to be more of a threat.
That won’t be enough to make up for Kemp’s defense, according to the projections. After the defensive adjustment, ZiPs projects Kemp will be replacement-level (0.0 Wins Above Replacement), Depth Charts (0.1) and Steamer (0.1) say he’ll be near-replacement level and the relatively optimistic Fans projection sees 1.2 WAR for Kemp in 2017.
This comes with the caveat that defensive metrics are not as advanced as offensive measures. But all of them point to a dramatic defensive decline for Kemp over the past three seasons. I'm thinking no one who watched Kemp play left field last season will argue with the numbers.
The fielding projections don’t account for the possibility that circumstances will make Kemp a better fielder in 2017. He’s been a good outfielder before and the slimmer physique could help him regain some of that form. If Kemp does that, then perhaps he gets that 1.2 WAR projected by Fans.
That wouldn’t be close to Kemp in his prime. But it would be pretty good production for a team still in transition from tear down to rebuild.
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