I believe that the Falcons will win the next two, go to the playoffs and then have a legitimate chance to win the wide-open NFC . But their defense gives me pause. That may sound strange after the D played pretty well in the past few games but some things about that nag at me.
One factor is that the Falcons haven't been playing good offensive teams. The 49ers (No. 28 in offensive DVOA) and Rams (No. 29) are bad. The Cardinals (No. 24) aren't much better and the Chiefs (No. 13) are limited. Saturday's opponent, Carolina, is just OK offensively (No. 21) but certainly capable of more. The Saints (No.4) are very good with the ball.
I'm not dismissing the defensive improvement by the Falcons, just putting it in perspective. I wonder if more capable opponents can take advantage of the injuries that have piled up for the Falcons’ defense. Cornerback Desmond Trufant, the Falcons’ best player at their thinnest position, is on IR and so is capable backup safety Kemal Ishmael. But it's more than that.
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Remember how the Falcons drafted DeVondre Campbell in large part because of his coverage skills? He’s recovering from a concussion and unlikely to play Saturday at Carolina. That would leave the player he replaced, Paul Worrilow, to help handle Carolina tight end Greg Olsen. I’m not saying Worrilow can’t do it; I’m just saying it’s not a good match up.
Cornerback Jalen Collins played fine before suffering an injury that sidelined him for last game. Will it last? Remember, before he couldn't get on the game-day active roster even with the Falcons thin at his position. If not Collins, can the combination of Deji Olatoye and C.J. Goodwin hold up against better teams after they were effective against the Rams?
Those are legit concerns but it's not all bad for the defense. Rookies Keanu Neal and Deion Jones are growing. Robert Alford has been effective without drawing so many flags.
The pass rush is a legit strength. Vic Beasley has dominated some lesser tackles and I think he'll still be effective when the comp gets better. Adrian Clayborn could be back this week. Dwight Freeney says he feels healthy after a thigh injury slowed him.
Again, I’m not waving away the good work the defense has done lately. Dan Quinn is right when he says the Falcons have been good in spite of the injuries.
“Now all of the guys have been in the system long enough to know this is how we play and this is the technique we do,” Quinn said. “The thing that I’ve been pleased with defensively over the last month has been our improved communication for the alerts at the line of scrimmage and the talking that we have to do. Those are things I think we can continue to get better and better at.”
The Falcons could continue to improve on D. It’s not as if they have to be great with the offense often doing what it wants. I still see a strong finish for the Falcons, but sometimes I do wonder about that defense holding up.
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