Given the up-and-down performances of the Hawks in this postseason, I realize the last thing anybody wants to do is start making assumptions. But history suggests tonight's Game 5 against Washington is more than a little significant.
The series is tied at 2-2. In NBA playoff history, the team that won Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead has gone on to win a best-of-seven series 147 out of 180 times (81.7 percent). Those numbers include the last time the Hawks were in this situation: They were tied 2-2 with Brooklyn in the first round, then won Game 5 at home and eliminated the Nets in Game 6.
Do I think the Hawks will win? Yes -- but I have no idea why. There's my scientific breakdown.
But maybe they learned something in Monday night's win at Washington, easily their best performance of the series. The Hawks have played better when they feel desperate. They had better feel desperate tonight because they don't want to be facing an elimination game going back to D.C. For more on that, click here:
Now, about injuries:
• DeMarre Carroll, who complained of a possible hip pointer following Game 4 when he smacked into Washington's Nene Hilario on a possibly illegal pick, will start. When asked about his hip following the morning shoot-around, Carroll said this: "What hip?"
Sort of reminds me of this scene from "Young Frankenstein" when Igor (Gene ) was asked about his hump by Dr. Frankenstein (Gene Wilder):
• Washington says point guard John Wall, who has been out since suffering multiple non-displaced fractures in his left hand in Game 1 (10 days ago, is a game-time decision. That's often code for, "We know but we're not telling you." (I'll update this following coach Randy Wittman's pre-game news conference.)
Wall has been doing light dribbling with his left hand. When asked whether he had taken any contact on the hand, Wall was quoted by the Washington Post as saying, "I be smacking it around myself."
UPDATE: Wall is starting. He looked good taking several jump shots in warmups without a wrap on his left hand.
Feel free to follow with your thoughts on Game 6 below.
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