Minnesota’s frozen dream scenario didn’t quite materialize this NFL season.
Oh, the weather will cooperate. The extended forecast for Minneapolis on Super Bowl Sunday is a penguin-friendly high of 12 degrees and a low of 1 with a 70 percent chance of precipitation (two to three inches of snow), depending on whether Boreas, the purple-winged Greek god of the cold north wind, feels particularly frisky that day.
But the home football team caved. The Vikings took a 7-0 lead over Philadelphia in the NFC title game, then was outscored 38-0, obliterating their chance to become the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium.
The next team on the clock: The Falcons.
The Super Bowl next season will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons would seem to have a decent shot at making history, having made the playoffs two consecutive years and reaching the championship game last season. But the backdrop otherwise doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Atlanta hosted Super Bowls twice before in the since-dynamited Georgia Dome and both seasons were disastrous. The first: 1993. The Falcons’ bad karma probably started when they traded Brett Favre before the 1992 season. They fell from a playoff team to 6-10. Then in 1993, they lost their first five games, finished 6-10 and fired coach Jerry Glanville. (Trivia: Dallas defeated Buffalo in the Super Bowl.)
The second Atlanta Super Bowl came in the 1999 season. Hopes were high. The Falcons were coming off their first Super Bowl appearance (loss to Denver in Miami). But running back Jamal Anderson suffered a major knee injury in Week 2, the team started 1-6 and finished 5-11. The St. Louis Rams defeated Tennessee in the title game, but the week was remembered more for two January ice storms that led NFL power brokers to mutter under their foggy breath, “We’re never coming back here.”
(Left unsaid: “Well, until they build a new stadium. Because we’re the NFL. Our love can always be bought.”)
Back to the Falcons. Is it a realistic possibility that they will be in next season’s Super Bowl against New England (just assuming)?
Free agency and the draft will provide more clarity. But regardless of their offseason, the Falcons will have one of the more talented rosters in the league, a quarterback one year removed from an MVP season and a young defense that ranked eighth overall in yardage and points against. That puts them in the conversation.
Here are five things I believe need to happen for the Falcons to be playing Feb. 3, 2019, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Improve the offensive line. When guard play is weak, as it was this season, it impacts everybody else on the line. The Falcons allowed only 24 sacks (third fewest in league) but that's more of a testament to quarterback Matt Ryan's ability to get rid of the ball. Ryan often was under pressure. The team allowed the 15th most QB hits (87). Of the 14 teams that allowed more QB hits, only two made the playoffs (Philadelphia and Buffalo). The team should sign a veteran guard in free agency rather than draft one. Carolina's Andrew Norwell should be at the top of the shopping list because it would come with the bonus of weakening an NFC South rival.
Improved play-calling. Steve Sarkisian has taken the brunt of the criticism for the Falcons' scoring decline. I'm one who believes it's a shared blame, given the line's issues and the NFL-worst 30 dropped passes. But Sarkisian struggled for solutions to red-zone problems, as evidenced in the final possession at Philadelphia. It became clear he wasn't familiar enough with the strengths and weaknesses of each player in specific situations. One notable drop-off came from Taylor Gabriel, who had a similar number of receptions from 2016, but his yards-per-catch (16.5 to 11.5) and touchdowns (6 to 1) dropped significantly. Some of that's on Gabriel, who didn't do as good a job fighting off blocks and became less of a desirable target for Ryan in the second half of the season.
Re-sign Dontari Poe or Adrian Clayborn. This could be difficult because the Falcons need to allot cap space for Ryan's contract extension. But losing both Poe and Clayborn would be a big hit to the defensive line's depth. Clayborn had 9-1/2 sacks, but six came in one game vs. Dallas. Poe would be a more expensive re-signing (at least $10 million annually), but he should be the higher priority, given his play against the run.
More impact plays on defense. The Falcons' 16 takeaways (down from 22 in 2016) ranked 27th in the NFL. It's remarkable the defense ranked as high as it did in points allowed given that. More pressure/sacks could lead to more turnovers. Expect Takk McKinley, who started slowly but finished strong his rookie season, to play a major role in that area. Vic Beasley had only five sacks, down from 15-1/2 last season, but was asked to drop into coverage often because of injuries at linebacker. Expect him to be more of a pure edge rusher again next season.
Improvement at tight end. Austin Hooper's 49 catches in his second season were just OK. He never really became a go-to guy like some might have expected and had only three touchdowns (none in the last nine games, including playoffs). A player with his skill set should be a bigger part of the offense, particularly in the red zone. It would help if the Falcons bring in a veteran to help Hooper.
Accomplish that, and the Falcons will have a short commute to the Super Bowl.
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