The Gingrich Surge
As the Republican candidates for President gather in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday night for a debate focused on foreign policy, the stars seem to be aligning ever more for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
A new national CNN poll had Gingrich clearly in the lead by four points, after being behind last week by two points.
Gingrich, who was left for dead this summer, has now surged in the polls to the point where a new survey out on Monday had him in a dead heat with frontrunner Mitt Romney in New Hampshire – a state that’s been solidly in Romney’s column for months.
The voters in the Granite State are notable for the desire to leave their own imprint on the race for the White House; that was obvious in 2008 when they gave Hilary Clinton an almost improbable victory which kept her campaign alive.
On the Republican side in 2008, it was John McCain who saw his fortunes blessed by New Hampshire voters, starting him on the road to the GOP nomination.
It wasn't the first time that I've seen New Hampshire voters insert themselves into the race for the White House; Bill Clinton was the "Comeback Kid" in 1992 while GOP voters sent a message to President Bush by giving a big chunk of their votes to Pat Buchanan.
In 1996, Buchanan actually defeated Bob Dole, making the Kansas Senator work harder for the GOP nomination.
In 2000, Granite State voters dealt Texas Gov. George W. Bush a whipping, as John McCain blasted Bush by nearly 20 points. Bush then had to fight hard to turn things around in South Carolina a few weeks later.
In 2004, John Kerry won the New Hampshire Primary, but he faced a tough run by John Edwards; the two would ultimately run as a team.
While it might have seemed difficult a few months ago to imagine Newt Gingrich being the recipient of that same helping hand, Gingrich may be the best placed of any Republican candidate right now to grab the mantle of the “Anybody-but-Romney” candidate and to capitalize on the momentum of New Hampshire voters.
It’s not to say that there is something “wrong” with Romney; after all, he is from next door Massachusetts, and it would seem almost impossible to imagine that he could lose the Granite State.
But the voters of New Hampshire do like to do something off-script, in a bid to send a message to one party or another.
And Romney cannot ignore that possibility.
It may be one reason that he has trotted out the New Hampshire Republican political establishment in recent days to publicly endorse his candidacy.
But I will be very interested to see what happens with the endorsement of the state’s largest newspaper, the Manchester Union-Leader, where Gingrich was doing a sit down with the paper’s editorial board on Monday.
An endorsement of Gingrich could shake up this race, but maybe the former Speaker has already done that, judging from the questions in a CNN poll released on Monday that showed Gingrich leading nationally.
- "Which Republican candidate is most likely to agree with you on the issues that matter the most to you?" - Gingrich
- "Which Republican candidate is the most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief?" - Gingrich
- "Which Republican candidate is most likely to keep the same positions on important issues? - Gingrich
- "Which Republican candidate is most likely to understand complex issues?" - Gingrich The one question where Gingrich still doesn't have the mojo is an interesting one - "Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election next November?" That answer remains solidly in the column of Mitt Romney. Iowa is six weeks from today. The New Hampshire Primary is seven weeks from today. With Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner, that time will fly. As for the debate schedule, after tonight, there are only two debates left before Iowa, both in the Hawkeye State in mid-December; one in Des Moines and one in Sioux City. I made my reservations for Sioux City yesterday.
