Romney's Southern Scenario
With Super Tuesday in just a week and a half, we need to talk more about the Republican delegate selection rules, and how those could work against Mitt Romney in several southern states.
As of now, Romney is clearly the underdog in Tennessee, Georgia and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday.
Rick Santorum has been ahead in polls in Tennessee and Oklahoma; Newt Gingrich has the lead in polls from Georgia.
Some of those polls also show what could be a nightmare scenario developing for Romney, as even though delegates are handed out on a proportional basis, only the top two candidates in each Congressional District qualify.
In other words, if Romney finishes behind Santorum and Gingrich - there won't be many delegates for the former Massachusetts Governor from those three states - and it could happen again the week after Super Tuesday as Alabama and Mississippi use some similar rules.
Here is the basic rundown on how Tennessee, Georgia and Oklahoma deal with the statewide results and the vote from individual congressional districts:
- Tennessee awards 28 delegates proportionally - based on the overall statewide results - but only to the top two vote getters.
- Tennessee also offers three delegates from each of the nine congressional districts in the Volunteer State; the most likely outcome is the individual winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one delegate.
- Georgia has 31 statewide delegates; they are awarded proportionally to candidates getting at least 20% of the vote. (Romney was at 20% in the latest poll.)
- Georgia also offers three delegates from each of the 14 congressional districts in the Peach State; if you win a majority, you get all three. Otherwise, two delegates go to the winner, one to the second place finisher.
- Oklahoma offers 25 statewide delegates; if you get over 50%, you win them all, otherwise it is proportional from candidates getting at least 15% of the vote. (Romney was at 18% in the latest poll in Oklahoma.)
- Oklahoma also has 3 delegates from each of the five congressional districts; over 50% wins them all, otherwise it is two delegates to the winner and one to second place. Just to make sure you see what I'm getting at here - if Romney finishes third in Tennessee, Georgia and Oklahoma, he might be all but shut out in terms of delegates. These three states offer 177 delegates on Super Tuesday, more than the 107 up for grabs in Virginia, Vermont and Massachusetts, where Romney is the big favorite. Romney will take one stab at trying to get a little attention in the South on Sunday, when he interrupts his Michigan campaign schedule to fly to Florida for the Daytona 500. Romney had a campaign fundraiser originally scheduled in Daytona for Friday night but had to scrap that in order to add extra events in Michigan, where he's trying to fight off a strong challenge from Santorum. Such campaign visits to a NASCAR event aren't anything new - President George W. Bush dropped by Daytona in 2004, his father President George H.W. Bush was there in the 1992 campaign as well. They were well received, unlike Bill Clinton's visit to Darlington in 1992, when he was booed lustily by the crowd. Back in 1972, George Wallace stopped by the Daytona speedway to shake a few hands and get his picture snapped with Richard Petty. Those were the days when it was guaranteed to show up on the front page of every paper in the South. Wallace might have been a little more at home with NASCAR greats than Romney - we'll see how the pictures look on Sunday. Will it win Romney any votes in some Super Tuesday states? I'll let you be the judge of that.
