Congressional election snapshot
While most of the political oxygen is being sucked up by the race for the White House, there are scores of important races for the U.S. House and Senate which could well determine what gets done and what does not when the 113th Congress convenes next year.
Let's start with the easy part first, and that is the U.S. House. After Republicans won 63 seats in 2010, it would be normal to see some of those seats swept back into the Political Ocean.
While no one is talking about the Democrats winning enough seats to take charge of the House and put the GOP back in the minority, it isn't out of the question that Democrats could trim the current GOP advantage of 49 seats.
As usual, each party has opportunities to both lose and pick up seats in the House; often these races are not moved by the broader battle in the Presidential race, but instead by local issues and personalities.
That can make for a crazy finish like what we saw two years ago, when over 90 new members were elected to the House, almost all of them from the Republican side.
My father taught me many years ago that by two weeks before an election, some incumbents are destined for defeat, but that a handful usually have no earthly idea that their Congressional pay check might soon be ending.
And often, neither do we in the press corps. So, count on some surprises.
While the House should stay in Republican hands, there is no easy answer on what will happen in the U.S. Senate.
A few months ago, Republicans thought it was a lock for them to take charge of the Senate - they only need to pick up a net gain of four seats to do that.
But in the last two months, a number of races have shifted against the GOP, and made Democrats the favorite to stay in charge - but - you cannot count out the possibility that anything could happen from Democratic gains to a Republican takeover, or even a situation where things stay much the same.
Let's go through some of the races that may make a difference on Election Night.
Arizona (R) - Republicans were counting on Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) to keep this seat, but the race has been anything but a cakewalk, as Flake finds himself in the fight of his life against Democrat Richard Carmona. Mitt Romney is the favorite to win the Grand Canyon State - can he drag Flake over the finish line? The polls are divided on this race.
Connecticut (I) - Democrats though it was their ticket to victory when the GOP nomination was won by former WWE executive Linda McMahon, who was easily defeated for Senate two years ago. But Rep. Chris Murphy (D-CT) has run a less than stellar campaign, and McMahon's big money ad campaign has kept this race close. President Obama should win the Nutmeg State easily - but will people split their tickets and vote for McMahon as well? Murphy's average lead is just over two points.
Indiana (R) - Four years ago, Indiana went for President Obama and Democrats had hopes to keeping that Hoosier State in the Blue column this year. But as the state has trended back towards the GOP and Mitt Romney, the race for Senate to replace Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) has remained competitive. Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN), one of the dying breed of Blue Dog Democrats, is giving State Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) all he can handle, as the GOP tries to hold on to this seat.
Massachusetts (R) - When Scott Brown (R) won the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) in a special election in 2010, everyone knew that he would be a prime target for Democrats in 2012. Brown has been in a slugfest with liberal favorite Elizabeth Warren, who has led in most polls. While Romney is not a factor in the state where he was Governor, Brown has still been able to appeal to many Democdrats. For the GOP to be in charge, Brown needs to hold this seat; Warren leads in the polling averages by just under two percent - well within the margin of error.
Missouri (D) - Here is yet another seat that Republicans thought would be in their column on Election Day, as Sen. Clare McCaskill (D-MO) was widely regarded as the most embattled Democratic incumbent in the Senate. But she got a new lease on life when the GOP Primary winner was Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), a conservative Republican who immediately gave McCaskill new life with his comments about women, rape and abortion. After initially vowing not to support Akin, more conservative GOP groups have poured in some money to this race; McCaskill has led in the polls but some still wonder if GOP voters will pull the lever anyway for Akin on Election Day.
Montana (D) - The Big Sky State has been home to one of the more drawn out races for Senate, as Sen. Jon Tester (D) tries to keep this seat for his party. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) has led in most polls, but only by a very slim margin that is often in the margin of error. Like Indiana, Mitt Romney should win Montana easily on Election Day, but it's not clear if that will be enough to drag Rehberg to victory in what may be one of the closer Senate races this year. Rehberg leads in the latest polling averages by 0.3%.
Nevada (R) - While Mitt Romney has struggled in Nevada, that hasn't been true of Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV), who was appointed to this seat after the resignation of Sen. John Ensign (R-NV). Democrats thought that Rep. Shelley Berkley would be the perfect challenger, but the polls have not been kind to her, and Heller has been able to maneuver his way around a series of political land mines that Democrats have set up in recent months. One cautionary note about this race is that I have shown how Democrats often come in much stronger than the polls indicate, meaning Berkley certainly has a chance to win in November. In 22 polls of this race, Berkley has led only twice.
North Dakota (D) - This is another state where Republicans were licking their chops a few months ago, then the race tightened, but now the GOP may be back on track for a Senate pick up. Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) was all but declared the winner by many early on, but even with a big double digit lead for Mitt Romney in the polls here, Berg has not been able to separate himself from Democrat Heidi Heidtkamp, though one poll out in recent days had him up ten. Republicans hope the strong support for Romney and the GOP candidate running for the U.S. House will convince voters to also check the box for their Senate candidate. This seat seems like a must win for the GOP in order to win the Senate.
Virginia (D) - Yet another state with a very close race for Senate where Reupblicans thought they had a very good chance back in the early part of 2012. But despite a tough race, former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) has emerged with a short lead in the Old Dominion over former Sen. George Allen (R-VA). The race for President in this state is very fluid, which makes it all the more difficult to figure out if a lot of Republicans will split their tickets and vote for Kaine. Allen is a known quantity from his previous service in the Senate, some wonder if that is holding him back in this race. Kaine leads in the polling averages by 1%; the Romney-Obama race in this state is dead even.
Wisconsin (D) - When former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) won the GOP primary in August, you could almost hear the Republican Establishment let out a sigh of relief, thinking that they had just won this seat from the Democrats. Instead, the polls turned Blue after the Democratic convention - for what reason, I'm still not sure - but they did. And that has put Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) seemingly in the driver's seat as she tries to keep this seat for her party. The race for President could play a huge role in this Senate fight; President Obama has a short lead here, but Republicans also know they won a difficult recall election on Gov. Scott Walker just a few months ago. Baldwin leads in the polling averages by 0.8%.
Four other Senate seats deserve a mention, because any of them could pop up on the radar over the next 13 days and on Election Night:
Maine (R) - For months, Democrats have figured that former Gov. Angus King would win this race as an Independent, and yet still come and caucus with the Democratic Party in the Senate. But Republicans think they have a shot to use some late advertising to knock King down and bring up Republican Charlie Summers. It may be a Hail Mary, given that King led one poll in September by 25 points. Also in play here is the fact that while Maine will go for President Obama, one Electoral Vote is at stake in each Congressional District, and the 2nd District in Maine could possibly go in Mitt Romney's favor, driving turnout for Senate as well.
Pennsylvania (D) - Just as the Keystone State has started to show up on the radar for the race for the White House, it also has popped up in the race for the Senate. Most people had no idea that Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) could be in any trouble, but some polls have shown this race against Republican Tom Smith closing dramatically, along with the Obama-Romney race. If Romney decides to make a late play for Pennsylvania, that certainly could have an impact on the Senate race as well. This is a longshot, but those are the type of bets I like to make at the race track; the problem is that the election exacta won't pay for the GOP if their candidate comes in second.
Florida (D) - Republicans have been aiming at Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) for several years, but now they wonder if the Sunshine State Democrat is going to escape their grasp this election. Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) is his challenger, but the family name hasn't been enough to make the race consistently tight in the polls, even as Mitt Romney has taken the lead in most statewide polls, as Nelson keeps running more than five points better than President Obama. Mack is on the air with an ad right now that features his parents; his dad might have had a much easier time making this run than his son. The polls have been somewhat schizophrenic here, one day giving Nelson a big lead, the next it's a dead heat, but one statistic is very clear - Mack has only led one of the last 20 polls.
Ohio (D) - Just like Florida, Republicans had high hopes in Ohio of booting out Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), but their candidate has also run into turbulence. State Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) has run a spirited campaign, but he has routinely spent time scrapping with reporters and making news that takes away from his campaign. Like Bill Nelson in Florida, Sherrod Brown has consistently run 3-5 points better than President Obama; if Obama wins Ohio, Brown should win too - and he may even win re-election if Romney wins the Buckeye State. Like Florida though, the polls have been all over the map at times, but in favor of Brown, who has led 26 of the last 30 polls - the other four were ties.
