Region play is barely under way in Class AAAAAA, and already signs have begun to emerge about how the playoff races are going to shape up.
Only two regions have started the league portion of their schedules. Region 4 has had a limited number of games over the past two weekends. Region 6 opened its league schedule with a full slate of games last weekend. Regions 5 and 7 will begin region play this week.
Some of the old familiar faces (Tucker, Stephenson, Harrison) appear poised to be in prime playoff position again this season. But there are other emerging teams (Creekview, perhaps Mundy’s Mill) that could knock out some of the regulars.
On Tuesdays over the next few weeks, we’ll examine the playoff outlooks for every team as region play kicks off (or shortly after it begins). We begin today with Regions 4 and 6.
Here’s a closer look at each of the teams, broken down by playoff likelihood, in alphabetical order within each group:
Region 4-AAAAAA
Safest bets: Stephenson, Tucker
Tucker opened the regular season with two lopsided losses to Buford and Grayson, but it is still the team to beat in the region. The Tigers (1-2, 1-0) won Region 4 each of the past two seasons, posting a 14-0 region record and having only one game that was decided by fewer than 20 points. Stephenson (1-1, 0-0) has reached the playoffs in 18 consecutive seasons, and this year figures to be no different. The Jaguars, who lost to rival Southwest DeKalb in overtime two weeks ago, begin region play Friday against Mount Zion.
In the hunt: Lovejoy, Morrow, Mundy’s Mill
Lovejoy (1-1, 1-0) has made eight consecutive playoff trips and is likely to go again, although the 40-16 season-opening loss to Banneker remains a bit puzzling. The Wildcats opened region play with a 36-34 win over Mundy’s Mill (2-1, 0-1), which appears dramatically improved after two consecutive 2-8 seasons. The wildcard in the group is Morrow, which moved up from Class AAAAA after narrowly missing the playoffs last season. Morrow (1-2, 1-0) beat Forest Park in region play but has been blown out by very good lower-classification teams Eagle’s Landing Christian and Mary Persons.
The jury’s out: Drew, M.L. King, Mount Zion-Jonesboro
Drew (0-2, 0-0), M.L. King (0-2, 0-0) and Mount Zion (0-2, 0-0) are winless overall heading into region play, but it’s hard to know what to make of their starts. All of the losses have come against pretty good teams, and most of the games have been relatively close. Drew and M.L. King finished tied for fourth place in the region last year, with Drew getting the tiebreaker nod for the playoff berth. Mount Zion appears the least likely of the three teams to make a run at a playoff berth. The Bulldogs haven’t won more than two games in a season since 2011 or reached the playoffs since 2009.
Not this year: Forest Park
Forest Park (0-3, 0-2) did not play a region schedule last year, and the Panthers were 6-83 in region games in the 13 seasons before that. They’re giving it another go this year, but the road has been tough so far. After opening the season with a 26-24 non-region loss against Lithonia, Forest Park has lost region games against Morrow 28-14 and Tucker 55-15.
Region 6-AAAAAA
Safest bets: Creekview, Harrison
Defending champion Harrison (3-0, 1-0) has been impressive in its 3-0 start, with easy victories against Lassiter and Hiram in non-league play and in a 49-10 win against River Ridge in the region opener last week. Creekview (3-0, 1-0) has been the surprise team in Class AAAAAA this season, moving all the way up to No. 4 in the AJC poll, its highest ranking in school history. The Grizzlies’ picked up their biggest win of the season last week when they knocked off Allatoona, the region runner-up last year.
In the hunt: Allatoona, Dalton, Sequoyah
Allatoona, Dalton and Sequoyah all made the playoffs out of this region the past two seasons, but at least one of them won’t make it back if Harrison and Creekview continue their hot play. Allatoona (0-2, 0-1) already is a game in the hole after its loss to Creekview but still has plenty of time to make that up. The next three weeks will tell us a lot about Dalton (2-0, 0-0). The Catamounts are at Sequoyah on Friday and then have home games against Creekview and Harrison. After playing Dalton, Sequoyah (2-0, 1-0) has a non-region game against Campbell and then a week off before playing at Creekview on Sept. 28.
Not this year: Osborne, River Ridge, South Cobb, Sprayberry
These four teams have a combined record of 1-11 through the first three weeks, the only victory coming last week when Sprayberry (1-2, 1-0) beat South Cobb (0-3, 0-1) 28-27. River Ridge (0-3, 0-1) lost to Harrison 49-10 last week after being shut out by Etowah and Hapeville Charter the first two weeks. Osborne (0-3, 0-1) did not play a region schedule the past four years and hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 1994. Considering the number of strong teams at the top of the region, it’s going to be hard for these four teams to find wins in games other than the ones against each other.
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Next week: Region 5-AAAAAA and 7-AAAAAA
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