Today we continue our look at the playoff chances for Class AAAAA teams by focusing on Regions 4 and 6, where the state playoff teams will be determined by region play-in games.
Which teams on the lists below are getting too much credit? Which ones are being underestimated?
Next week we’ll finish our series with a look at Region 1.
*Locks: None
*Likely: Mundy’s Mill, Drew, Luella
Mundy’s Mill was the Division A champion last season and is the favorite to win it again, although the Tigers’ can expect a challenge from Drew (3-1, 1-0) when the teams meet on Oct. 17. Luella emerged as the favorite in Division B when it opened subregion play with a 7-6 win over Stockbridge. The Lions finished 5-5 in the regular season last year but reached the playoffs in Class AAAAAA.
*On the bubble: Starr’s Mill, McIntosh, Northgate, Ola, Dutchtown, Woodland-Stockbridge, Stockbridge
Starr’s Mill (2-2) is 1-0 in subregion A, but the victory came against Forest Park, so there’s still work to be done. The loser of this week’s game between McIntosh (2-3, 1-1) and Northgate (2-3, 1-1) will fall into the “long shots” category. Ola (3-2, 1-0), Dutchtown (2-3, 1-0), Woodland (4-1, 0-1) and preseason region favorite Stockbridge (3-2, 0-1) of subregion B are very much in the hunt for spots in the play-in games. Dutchtown’s 42-21 win last week over previously unbeaten Woodland could loom large down the stretch.
*Long shots: None
*Not this year: Morrow, Forest Park, Union Grove
Morrow and Forest Park are a combined 1-9 this season (both are 0-2 in subregion A), and neither has won more than three games in a season since Morrow went 4-6 in 2002. Union Grove reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012 and was 6-4 last year, but the Wolverines are off to a 1-4 start and lost to Ola 35-14 in the subregion B opener last weekend.
*Locks: Creekside, Mays, Stephenson
Second-ranked Creekside (4-1), the defending state champion, and No. 6 Mays (4-1) will battle for the top spot in subregion B, and neither should have a problem winning a play-in game. Eighth-ranked Stephenson (2-2) is the strongest team from a weaker-than-usual DeKalb County side of the region. Creekside beat Stephenson 28-14 on Sept. 19 in a game that was closer than the final score.
*Likely: Carver-Atlanta
Much like their subregion counterparts Creekside and Mays, the Panthers are also off to a 4-1 start. They’ll need an upset or two to reach the top position in subregion B, but they should be able to win a play-in game for a spot in the state playoffs.
*On the bubble: Dunwoody, Miller Grove, Southwest DeKalb
These three teams appear to be the leading candidates to finish in second place behind Stephenson in subregion A, which would give them the best shot of winning a play-in game. Southwest DeKalb is 2-2 but has the most impressive victories, beating Columbia and Tri-Cities. Dunwoody and Miller Grove are both 3-1, but the teams they beat have a combined record of 6-23.
*Long shots: Druid Hills, Tri-Cities
Druid Hills (2-2) and Tri-Cities (3-1) are off to decent starts, but both will find it difficult finishing high enough in their subregions to qualify for the play-in games. Druid Hills, which lost to Tri-Cites 10-7 on Friday, hasn’t made the playoffs since 1985.
*Not this year: Banneker, M.L. King, Clarkston
Banneker (0-5) and M.L. King (0-4) have been shut out a combined six times in their nine games this season. M.L. King hasn’t missed the playoffs since its inaugural 2002 season. Clarkston is playing a non-region schedule and is not eligible for the postseason.
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