Playoff scenarios for Regions 5-8

Here are the playoff scenarios that will play out this weekend in Regions 5-8. To see the scenarios for Regions 1-4, click here.

Region 5 

*Clinched playoff berths: Creekside (6-1 region record), Douglas County (6-1), Northgate (5-2), Mays (5-2)

*Eliminated: Hughes (4-4), Alexander (3-4), South Paulding (2-5), Tri-Cities (1-6), New Manchester (0-7)

*Still in contention: None

*What’s at stake: Creekside will win the region championship if it beats South Paulding. The Seminoles also could win the region with a loss, but it would need Douglas County to lose to Alexander and Mays to beat Northgate, forcing a three-way tie for first place (Creekside would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker). If Creekside and Douglas County lose and Northgate wins, it would be a three-way tie for first, with each team being 1-1 against the others, so the region’s tiebreakers would come into effect. Douglas County wins the region if it wins and Creekside loses. The computer Maxwell Ratings peg Creekside as a 23-point favorite and Douglas County as an 18-point favorite. If that plays out, the final order would be: 1. Creekside, 2. Douglas County, 3. Mays-Northgate winner, 4. Mays-Northgate loser (for the record, Mays is a two-point favorite).

Region 6 

*Clinched playoff berths: Creekview (7-0), Allatoona (6-1), Harrison (6-1), Sequoyah (5-2)

*Eliminated: Dalton (3-4), Sprayberry (2-5), South Cobb (2-6), River Ridge (1-6), Osborne (0-7)

*Still in contention: None

*What’s at stake: A victory over Harrison would give Creekview the first region title in school history. Harrison wins the title outright if it beats Creekview and Sequoyah beats Allatoona. If Harrison and Allatoona both win, they will be tied with Creekview for first place, with 1-1 records against each other. The region uses a head-to-head point differential as the tiebreaker, which currently favors Creekview but leaves the door open for the other two. Likewise, losses by Harrison and Allatoona would leave them tied for second place with Sequoyah. The Maxwell Ratings have Creekview and Allatoona both favored by 10 points. In that case, the final order would be: 1. Creekview, 2. Allatoona, 3. Harrison, 4. Sequoyah.

Region 7 

*Clinched playoff berths: Johns Creek (7-0), Centennial (6-1)

*Eliminated: North Atlanta (2-5), Dunwoody (1-6), Chattahoochee (0-7)

*Still in contention: Pope (5-3), Alpharetta (4-3), Northview (4-3), Cambridge (3-4)

*What’s at stake: Johns Creek is the region champion, and Centennial is the runner-up. Pope is in the next-best position, currently sitting in third place and with no more regular-season games to play. The worst that can happen to the Greyhounds is a three-way tie for third place with Alpharetta and Northview if both teams win. If Alpharetta (favored by 15 over Cambridge) wins and Northview (23-point underdogs against Centennial) loses, Alpharetta would take third place and push Pope down to fourth. If Northview wins and Alpharetta loses, Northview would get fourth place. Cambridge’s only hope is to beat Alpharetta and hope for a Northview loss, which would create a three-way tie for fourth place.

Region 8 

*Clinched playoff berths: Dacula (4-0), Lanier (3-1)

*Eliminated: Winder-Barrow (0-4)

*Still in contention: Habersham Central (2-2), Gainesville (2-2), Apalachee (1-3)

*What’s at stake: Dacula has clinched the region championship. Lanier is in second place but likely needs to beat Gainesville to secure the No. 2 seed. Apalachee must win to have any shot at a playoff berth. A loss to Habersham Central would eliminate Apalachee and clinch the final two berths for Habersham and Gainesville. Habersham would be eliminated if it loses and Gainesville upsets Lanier. If Habersham Central and Gainesville both lose, it would create a three-way tie for the final two spots. The region’s point-differential tiebreaker method currently works against Gainesville. If the favored teams (Lanier by 14, Habersham by 11) win, the final standings would be: 1. Dacula, 2. Lanier, 3. Habersham Central, 4. Gainesville.