High School Sports Blog

Maxwell Week 5 summary

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Friday Night Football: North Cobb defenders elevate to try and block a field goal attempt by East Coweta during Friday's game at North Cobb. (Daniel Varnado/Special)
By Loren Maxwell
Sept 24, 2019

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association’s 422 teams throughout the 2019 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team’s historical performance is 26.89%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 761 of 800 total games including 0 tie(s) (95.13%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.14 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.07

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County3-191.311Valdosta5-085.08
2Lowndes5-090.182Dacula4-074.81
3Grayson4-088.983Lee County4-173.11
4McEachern4-085.574Coffee5-071.13
5North Gwinnett3-184.685Allatoona3-168.63
6Archer3-182.356Glynn Academy2-167.55
7Mill Creek3-180.377Dalton4-066.94
8Milton2-279.248Harrison5-066.18
9Parkview2-178.229Lanier4-063.33
10Marietta3-177.5810Northside (Warner Robins)3-262.34
11Hillgrove4-075.0011Houston County4-161.31
12Camden County4-072.7812Mays3-156.40
13Roswell2-170.6713Tucker2-255.57
14Walton2-268.4614Creekview3-255.17
15North Paulding4-068.2315Johns Creek3-153.00
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Buford4-082.681Cartersville4-083.21
2Warner Robins3-175.822Marist4-080.57
3Jones County5-071.273Blessed Trinity3-175.42
4Carrollton4-070.614Woodward Academy4-073.12
5Dutchtown5-070.265Sandy Creek4-064.04
6Rome2-268.916Flowery Branch3-063.86
7Stockbridge4-068.077Troup3-162.54
8Bainbridge4-066.548Burke County3-161.10
9Kell3-164.199Oconee County4-158.91
10Ware County2-262.4810Cairo3-158.70
11Veterans4-160.9811Thomson2-256.12
12Griffin4-060.9312West Laurens3-155.81
13Wayne County2-159.6213Howard4-155.42
14Ola4-158.3414Chapel Hill3-155.12
15Statesboro3-058.1915St. Pius X2-352.41
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove2-274.281Callaway3-167.06
2Peach County3-173.652Dublin3-066.29
3Greater Atlanta Christian3-167.403Rabun County4-064.82
4Lovett3-162.104Rockmart4-062.93
5Westminster (Atlanta)1-361.595Hapeville Charter2-162.07
6Crisp County3-259.076Swainsboro3-157.99
7Benedictine1-258.787Fitzgerald4-157.71
8Jefferson2-158.588Washington County3-154.85
9Pierce County4-058.109Brooks County1-354.76
10Pace Academy2-154.1810Dodge County1-346.91
11Appling County4-053.3511Thomasville1-346.32
12Liberty County2-053.3312Jefferson County2-246.25
13Hart County4-053.1213Bleckley County3-144.25
14Calhoun3-152.9614Vidalia3-143.27
15Jenkins3-150.0715Douglass4-041.89
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County3-069.961Eagle's Landing Christian3-164.48
2Clinch County3-163.052Athens Academy3-057.55
3Pelham4-045.983Wesleyan4-052.40
4Commerce3-142.034Holy Innocents4-049.38
5Marion County3-138.735Prince Avenue Christian3-148.90
6Mitchell County3-137.916Darlington4-045.41
7Wilcox County4-035.327Fellowship Christian4-042.36
8Turner County3-135.228Savannah Christian1-241.33
9Bowdon3-034.599Mount Paran Christian2-041.29
10Emanuel County Institute1-333.6310Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)4-039.54
11Manchester2-132.7211Hebron Christian Academy1-237.96
12Lincoln County2-230.3712North Cobb Christian4-037.05
13Telfair County2-230.2913Aquinas4-036.89
14Taylor County2-129.1914Calvary Day2-135.95
15Charlton County1-328.0615Christian Heritage4-035.58

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA3-191.3175.293 [3]
2 [2]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA5-090.1858.9537 [18]
3 [3]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA4-088.9865.2816 [13]
4 [4]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA4-085.5758.3839 [20]
5 [1]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA5-085.0847.59108 [22]
6 [5]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA3-184.6873.666 [5]
7 [1]Cartersville5 - AAAA4-083.2138.07199 [34]
8 [1]Buford8 - AAAAA4-082.6860.4030 [4]
9 [6]Archer8 - AAAAAAA3-182.3566.5014 [12]
10 [2]Marist7 - AAAA4-080.5759.0836 [4]
11 [7]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA3-180.3770.599 [8]
12 [8]Milton5 - AAAAAAA2-279.2468.5013 [11]
13 [9]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA2-178.2270.3110 [9]
14 [10]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA3-177.5874.694 [4]
15 [2]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA3-175.8256.6047 [8]
16 [3]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA3-175.4262.8122 [2]
17 [11]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA4-075.0048.2599 [33]
18 [2]Dacula8 - AAAAAA4-074.8157.0845 [4]
19 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA2-274.2874.365 [1]
20 [2]Peach County4 - AAA3-173.6562.4823 [3]
21 [4]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA4-073.1244.28137 [20]
22 [3]Lee County1 - AAAAAA4-173.1138.19197 [45]
23 [12]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA4-072.7851.8867 [28]
24 [3]Jones County4 - AAAAA5-071.2747.62107 [20]
25 [4]Coffee1 - AAAAAA5-071.1336.66215 [49]
26 [13]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA2-170.6743.46149 [39]
27 [4]Carrollton7 - AAAAA4-070.6151.8070 [13]
28 [5]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA5-070.2652.1663 [10]
29 [1]Irwin County2 - A3-070.0551.3373 [1]
30 [6]Rome7 - AAAAA2-268.9163.3920 [1]
31 [5]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA3-168.6346.42117 [26]
32 [14]Walton4 - AAAAAAA2-268.4664.3719 [15]
33 [15]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA4-068.2345.12132 [37]
34 [7]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA4-068.0740.21182 [34]
35 [6]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA2-167.5539.54188 [42]
36 [3]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA3-167.4060.3231 [4]
37 [1]Callaway5 - AA3-167.0637.82203 [15]
38 [7]Dalton6 - AAAAAA4-066.9441.56167 [38]
39 [8]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA4-066.5446.39118 [23]
40 [16]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-166.4958.6938 [19]
41 [2]Dublin3 - AA3-066.2949.7884 [4]
42 [8]Harrison6 - AAAAAA5-066.1837.24209 [47]
43 [17]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA2-266.0071.928 [7]
44 [18]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA2-265.9971.967 [6]
45 [3]Rabun County8 - AA4-064.8236.94213 [17]
46 [1]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A3-164.5243.91141 [2]
47 [19]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA2-264.3262.1925 [16]
48 [9]Kell7 - AAAAA3-164.1951.4172 [15]
49 [5]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA4-064.0438.94190 [33]
50 [20]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA0-464.0179.451 [1]
51 [6]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA3-063.8642.57159 [24]
52 [9]Lanier8 - AAAAAA4-063.3349.6485 [17]
53 [2]Clinch County2 - A3-163.0046.82113 [3]
54 [4]Rockmart7 - AA4-062.9329.35279 [31]
55 [21]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA3-162.6547.80103 [35]
56 [7]Troup5 - AAAA3-162.5448.04102 [13]
57 [22]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA1-362.5275.882 [2]
58 [10]Ware County2 - AAAAA2-262.4859.1635 [6]
59 [10]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA3-262.3450.8578 [14]
60 [4]Lovett5 - AAA3-162.1057.2744 [5]
61 [5]Hapeville Charter6 - AA2-162.0736.12220 [20]
62 [23]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA4-161.8950.0783 [31]
63 [5]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA1-361.5968.8312 [2]
64 [11]Houston County1 - AAAAAA4-161.3143.61145 [32]
65 [8]Burke County3 - AAAA3-161.1048.11101 [12]
66 [11]Veterans1 - AAAAA4-160.9852.0065 [11]
67 [12]Griffin3 - AAAAA4-060.9345.27129 [26]
68 [24]Newton8 - AAAAAAA3-160.4143.75144 [38]
69 [25]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA1-260.4156.0851 [24]
70 [13]Wayne County2 - AAAAA2-159.6239.66187 [35]
71 [26]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA1-459.3269.3311 [10]
72 [6]Crisp County1 - AAA3-259.0755.5854 [7]
73 [9]Oconee County8 - AAAA4-158.9148.3198 [11]
74 [7]Benedictine3 - AAA1-258.7855.6753 [6]
75 [10]Cairo1 - AAAA3-158.7043.43150 [21]
76 [8]Jefferson8 - AAA2-158.5843.17152 [15]
77 [14]Ola4 - AAAAA4-158.3448.9992 [18]
78 [15]Statesboro2 - AAAAA3-058.1943.56148 [27]
79 [9]Pierce County2 - AAA4-058.1028.05296 [40]
80 [6]Swainsboro2 - AA3-157.9948.5495 [6]
81 [16]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA3-257.8357.4743 [7]
82 [7]Fitzgerald1 - AA4-157.7141.28170 [10]
83 [2]Athens Academy8 - A3-057.5731.46264 [8]
84 [27]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA2-357.0457.8741 [21]
85 [12]Mays5 - AAAAAA3-156.4047.68106 [21]
86 [28]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA2-256.3357.7242 [22]
87 [11]Thomson3 - AAAA2-256.1254.5458 [7]
88 [12]West Laurens2 - AAAA3-155.8146.56115 [15]
89 [13]Tucker4 - AAAAAA2-255.5756.2749 [6]
90 [13]Howard2 - AAAA4-155.4241.86165 [27]
91 [14]Creekview6 - AAAAAA3-255.1746.59114 [24]
92 [14]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA3-155.1248.4596 [10]
93 [29]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA1-355.0661.2329 [17]
94 [8]Washington County3 - AA3-154.8545.76123 [8]
95 [9]Brooks County1 - AA1-354.7659.5834 [2]
96 [30]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA4-054.3334.74237 [45]
97 [10]Pace Academy5 - AAA2-154.1848.3297 [8]
98 [17]South Effingham2 - AAAAA4-054.0541.71166 [32]
99 [18]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA4-053.9135.19228 [41]
100 [11]Appling County2 - AAA4-053.3537.21210 [23]
101 [12]Liberty County2 - AAA2-053.3328.22294 [39]
102 [13]Hart County8 - AAA4-053.1239.88185 [17]
103 [15]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA3-153.0031.20267 [55]
104 [14]Calhoun6 - AAA3-152.9635.04233 [29]
105 [16]Creekside5 - AAAAAA2-252.7351.0777 [13]
106 [17]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA3-152.6751.1776 [12]
107 [15]St. Pius X8 - AAAA2-352.4157.9940 [5]
108 [3]Wesleyan5 - A4-052.4031.60261 [6]
109 [16]Mary Persons2 - AAAA2-352.1752.3462 [8]
110 [31]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-151.8245.34127 [36]
111 [18]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA2-251.8043.57147 [34]
112 [32]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA2-251.5949.5886 [32]
113 [17]North Oconee8 - AAAA5-050.6428.39290 [45]
114 [33]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA0-450.1065.2117 [14]
115 [15]Jenkins3 - AAA3-150.0727.50301 [42]
116 [18]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA2-349.8354.7356 [6]
117 [19]Denmark7 - AAAA3-049.7923.85326 [48]
118 [19]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA3-149.6543.34151 [28]
119 [19]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA2-249.5848.7393 [19]
120 [20]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA3-149.4437.99200 [37]
121 [4]Holy Innocents5 - A4-049.4128.54288 [12]
122 [20]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA3-149.2534.81235 [38]
123 [20]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA1-249.1261.8526 [2]
124 [34]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA2-249.0948.14100 [34]
125 [5]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A3-148.9529.75277 [11]
126 [21]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA2-248.8347.47109 [21]
127 [22]Harris County1 - AAAAA2-248.8151.5071 [14]
128 [16]North Murray6 - AAA3-148.6637.67204 [22]
129 [21]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA1-248.6450.3581 [15]
130 [22]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA3-148.3436.18218 [50]
131 [23]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA1-348.1761.4027 [3]
132 [17]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA2-247.4146.04121 [10]
133 [23]Riverwood6 - AAAAA4-047.3831.60262 [45]
134 [24]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA2-247.0752.1064 [10]
135 [24]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA4-147.0032.70251 [43]
136 [21]Westover1 - AAAA4-046.9130.17272 [44]
137 [10]Dodge County3 - AA1-346.9151.8668 [3]
138 [18]Jackson4 - AAA2-246.8343.77143 [14]
139 [25]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA2-246.6148.5894 [20]
140 [19]Monroe Area8 - AAA3-146.5935.08231 [28]
141 [22]Eastside4 - AAAA2-246.5642.96155 [23]
142 [11]Thomasville1 - AA1-346.3265.6715 [1]
143 [12]Jefferson County4 - AA2-246.2531.21266 [29]
144 [23]Baldwin3 - AAAA0-545.9765.1918 [1]
145 [3]Pelham1 - A4-045.912.21411 [46]
146 [25]East Paulding7 - AAAAA0-345.8561.3228 [3]
147 [20]Dawson County7 - AAA3-145.7533.44245 [32]
148 [26]Hughes5 - AAAAAA1-345.5456.4248 [5]
149 [26]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA2-245.5146.89112 [22]
150 [6]Darlington6 - A4-045.4524.79316 [16]
151 [27]Alexander5 - AAAAAA1-245.1849.0989 [18]
152 [35]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA4-044.9635.07232 [44]
153 [27]Hiram7 - AAAAA1-244.8152.8661 [9]
154 [28]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA1-344.7851.9166 [11]
155 [28]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA2-244.7651.1875 [16]
156 [29]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA3-144.4735.96221 [51]
157 [24]Ridgeland6 - AAAA0-344.2959.9233 [3]
158 [13]Bleckley County3 - AA3-144.2534.71238 [21]
159 [29]Union Grove4 - AAAAA2-244.1243.17153 [29]
160 [30]Evans3 - AAAAAA2-243.7343.58146 [33]
161 [36]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA2-243.6440.48181 [42]
162 [30]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA0-443.6262.8821 [2]
163 [31]Pope7 - AAAAAA2-243.5845.32128 [27]
164 [25]Perry2 - AAAA2-243.2943.14154 [22]
165 [14]Vidalia2 - AA3-143.2728.39289 [36]
166 [21]Islands3 - AAA4-042.9232.85250 [33]
167 [32]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA3-042.7034.93234 [53]
168 [26]White County7 - AAAA3-142.4433.84241 [39]
169 [7]Fellowship Christian6 - A4-042.2916.33370 [26]
170 [4]Commerce8 - A3-141.9918.75357 [31]
171 [15]Douglass6 - AA4-041.8918.45358 [45]
172 [16]Bremen5 - AA1-241.8345.93122 [7]
173 [33]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA2-241.7341.04173 [39]
174 [37]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA0-441.7157.0546 [23]
175 [17]Union County8 - AA4-041.6814.34384 [54]
176 [18]Pepperell7 - AA3-141.6832.55254 [27]
177 [27]Cedartown5 - AAAA1-341.5442.46160 [25]
178 [38]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA1-341.5253.3160 [27]
179 [8]Savannah Christian3 - A1-241.3320.27347 [20]
180 [9]Mount Paran Christian6 - A2-041.291.74413 [36]
181 [34]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA1-340.8744.18139 [30]
182 [22]North Hall7 - AAA2-240.8136.68214 [24]
183 [23]Morgan County8 - AAA3-140.7730.12273 [36]
184 [35]Northview7 - AAAAAA3-140.5930.63270 [56]
185 [31]Paulding County7 - AAAAA2-240.3641.29169 [33]
186 [36]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA3-040.3426.79307 [58]
187 [32]Riverdale3 - AAAAA3-139.9523.87323 [50]
188 [28]Madison County8 - AAAA3-239.9339.81186 [32]
189 [29]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-139.8840.57180 [30]
190 [37]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA2-239.5940.58179 [41]
191 [10]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A4-039.5327.92297 [14]
192 [38]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA2-239.3740.86176 [40]
193 [19]Elbert County8 - AA2-239.2933.23246 [24]
194 [39]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA1-238.9942.28162 [37]
195 [33]Banneker6 - AAAAA1-338.9846.23119 [24]
196 [40]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA2-238.8139.47189 [43]
197 [5]Marion County4 - A3-138.8120.48346 [28]
198 [30]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA2-238.4644.35135 [19]
199 [20]Jeff Davis2 - AA4-038.4518.25360 [47]
200 [31]Stephens County8 - AAAA1-438.3049.0490 [9]
201 [32]Hardaway1 - AAAA2-238.3037.93201 [35]
202 [21]Hephzibah4 - AA3-038.1816.94366 [51]
203 [22]Northeast3 - AA2-238.1636.19217 [19]
204 [11]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A1-238.0049.0191 [1]
205 [6]Mitchell County1 - A3-137.9314.86381 [37]
206 [33]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA3-137.8330.71269 [43]
207 [34]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA1-437.7549.4288 [17]
208 [35]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA1-337.2842.35161 [31]
209 [23]Toombs County2 - AA3-037.168.38403 [58]
210 [12]North Cobb Christian6 - A4-037.0220.15350 [21]
211 [13]Aquinas7 - A4-036.7318.94355 [23]
212 [24]Southwest3 - AA2-236.6540.95175 [12]
213 [41]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA1-336.5846.43116 [25]
214 [25]Early County1 - AA3-236.2128.87281 [32]
215 [34]Pickens6 - AAAA2-236.1324.19320 [47]
216 [35]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA3-136.1220.21348 [51]
217 [36]Cass7 - AAAAA3-136.0030.41271 [46]
218 [14]Calvary Day3 - A2-135.9912.21391 [33]
219 [26]Screven County4 - AA3-135.9628.75283 [33]
220 [36]Columbus1 - AAAA1-235.9047.30110 [14]
221 [42]Northgate5 - AAAAAA0-435.7050.1482 [16]
222 [15]Christian Heritage6 - A4-035.5116.23374 [28]
223 [27]Metter2 - AA3-135.4823.35330 [42]
224 [43]Morrow4 - AAAAAA2-335.4744.21138 [29]
225 [7]Wilcox County2 - A4-035.388.30404 [44]
226 [8]Turner County2 - A3-135.1628.38291 [11]
227 [28]Chattooga7 - AA2-235.1433.83242 [23]
228 [37]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA2-235.0735.10230 [37]
229 [39]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA2-134.9412.49390 [47]
230 [37]Loganville8 - AAAAA0-434.7045.67125 [25]
231 [40]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA0-434.6754.8855 [26]
232 [9]Bowdon6 - A3-034.6327.19304 [15]
233 [41]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA0-434.4850.4080 [30]
234 [16]George Walton Academy8 - A3-134.3520.54344 [19]
235 [42]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA1-334.3041.48168 [40]
236 [44]Centennial7 - AAAAAA0-434.0853.7359 [9]
237 [45]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA2-333.9138.88191 [44]
238 [10]Emanuel County Institute3 - A1-333.6638.27196 [6]
239 [46]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA2-333.5637.20211 [48]
240 [38]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA2-233.3935.92222 [39]
241 [39]Whitewater3 - AAAAA0-433.1459.9432 [5]
242 [43]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-333.1351.2074 [29]
243 [47]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA1-333.0346.97111 [23]
244 [29]Lamar County5 - AA4-032.869.74399 [57]
245 [24]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA2-232.8525.76309 [43]
246 [48]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA1-332.7545.06133 [28]
247 [11]Manchester4 - A2-132.7423.85325 [22]
248 [17]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A2-232.7329.82274 [10]
249 [30]Spencer5 - AA2-232.6833.84240 [22]
250 [49]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA0-532.4062.3724 [1]
251 [50]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA2-232.3437.40207 [46]
252 [38]Spalding2 - AAAA1-432.0245.74124 [17]
253 [18]Savannah Country Day3 - A3-031.8416.31371 [27]
254 [51]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA2-131.6826.94306 [57]
255 [39]Hampton4 - AAAA2-231.6737.66206 [36]
256 [40]Fayette County3 - AAAAA2-231.3732.18256 [44]
257 [31]Berrien1 - AA2-231.0432.64252 [26]
258 [41]Lithonia5 - AAAAA3-131.0319.70352 [52]
259 [52]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA0-330.9954.5757 [8]
260 [40]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA2-230.9433.54243 [40]
261 [41]Shaw1 - AAAA3-130.8522.03335 [50]
262 [25]Haralson County6 - AAA3-030.808.63401 [55]
263 [53]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA1-330.7142.67158 [36]
264 [42]Decatur6 - AAAAA3-130.4720.18349 [51]
265 [12]Lincoln County7 - A2-230.3828.58287 [10]
266 [13]Telfair County2 - A2-230.3123.96322 [20]
267 [32]Heard County5 - AA0-430.1349.4787 [5]
268 [44]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA0-430.1255.9652 [25]
269 [26]Monroe1 - AAA2-330.0235.24225 [27]
270 [27]Brantley County2 - AAA2-129.8728.76282 [37]
271 [43]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA0-529.7751.8069 [13]
272 [19]Mount de Sales7 - A3-029.6410.52398 [35]
273 [20]Whitefield Academy6 - A3-129.1916.04375 [29]
274 [14]Taylor County4 - A2-129.1723.74327 [23]
275 [28]Adairsville6 - AAA2-228.9727.72299 [41]
276 [29]Cook1 - AAA0-528.5545.17131 [12]
277 [30]Sonoraville6 - AAA1-228.3938.76192 [18]
278 [44]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA1-428.3742.81157 [30]
279 [15]Charlton County2 - A1-327.9635.12229 [7]
280 [45]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA0-427.7640.72177 [41]
281 [16]Trion6 - A3-127.5711.39393 [40]
282 [31]Central (Macon)4 - AAA0-426.9147.79104 [9]
283 [21]Brookstone4 - A2-126.7711.47392 [34]
284 [33]Harlem4 - AA2-226.7021.84338 [44]
285 [17]Schley County4 - A2-226.6817.31363 [33]
286 [32]Fannin County7 - AAA3-126.4221.33340 [49]
287 [54]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA1-326.2956.2650 [7]
288 [18]Macon County4 - A1-225.9129.54278 [8]
289 [22]Stratford Academy7 - A1-325.8133.07249 [4]
290 [45]Columbia5 - AAAAA1-325.7647.78105 [19]
291 [46]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA1-325.7135.20226 [43]
292 [19]Claxton3 - A3-125.6217.77361 [32]
293 [33]Pike County4 - AAA2-225.6114.87380 [53]
294 [34]South Atlanta6 - AA3-125.4710.67396 [56]
295 [34]Jackson County8 - AAA2-225.2724.68317 [45]
296 [42]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA0-425.2042.07164 [26]
297 [55]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA0-325.1844.10140 [31]
298 [35]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA2-224.9421.60339 [48]
299 [36]Beach3 - AAA1-224.6037.67205 [22]
300 [35]Temple5 - AA3-124.2318.33359 [46]
301 [36]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA1-324.2039.93184 [13]
302 [20]Washington-Wilkes7 - A2-223.7725.53312 [18]
303 [43]Salem4 - AAAA0-423.6441.24171 [28]
304 [21]Dooly County4 - A0-323.6450.7379 [2]
305 [56]Drew4 - AAAAAA1-323.6042.95156 [35]
306 [22]McIntosh County Academy3 - A1-223.5043.89142 [4]
307 [44]Chestatee7 - AAAA1-323.4732.58253 [41]
308 [23]Atkinson County2 - A2-223.3526.41308 [16]
309 [46]Grady6 - AAAAA2-223.3328.31293 [48]
310 [37]Worth County1 - AAA2-323.3332.16257 [34]
311 [38]Windsor Forest3 - AAA1-222.8425.49313 [44]
312 [24]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A1-322.6627.46302 [14]
313 [23]Tattnall Square7 - A1-222.5825.32314 [15]
314 [47]McIntosh3 - AAAAA1-322.2629.76276 [47]
315 [24]Riverside Military Academy8 - A2-122.0316.38368 [24]
316 [25]First Presbyterian7 - A1-321.8131.04268 [9]
317 [45]McDonough4 - AAAA1-321.6240.14183 [31]
318 [37]Washington6 - AA0-421.6137.36208 [16]
319 [39]Ringgold6 - AAA0-421.4644.48134 [13]
320 [25]Johnson County3 - A2-121.0514.73382 [38]
321 [26]St. Francis6 - A2-120.8815.17377 [30]
322 [48]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA0-420.7438.74193 [36]
323 [49]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA1-320.0225.74310 [49]
324 [40]East Hall7 - AAA1-319.4934.61239 [31]
325 [46]West Hall7 - AAAA0-419.3440.97174 [29]
326 [41]Franklin County8 - AAA0-318.4536.12219 [25]
327 [42]Tattnall County2 - AAA0-418.1334.76236 [30]
328 [38]Therrell6 - AA1-318.1241.11172 [11]
329 [47]Luella4 - AAAA1-317.9031.93259 [42]
330 [39]Bacon County2 - AA0-417.8144.31136 [9]
331 [27]Walker6 - A1-217.7231.51263 [7]
332 [48]LaFayette6 - AAAA2-217.6722.23334 [49]
333 [26]Terrell County1 - A2-217.5124.94315 [19]
334 [49]Cross Creek3 - AAAA2-317.4524.21319 [46]
335 [50]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-417.3246.05120 [16]
336 [40]Coosa7 - AA0-417.0133.11248 [25]
337 [43]Redan5 - AAA2-216.9522.83332 [47]
338 [41]Glenn Hills4 - AA1-216.8027.88298 [37]
339 [50]North Springs6 - AAAAA1-316.7133.16247 [42]
340 [44]East Jackson8 - AAA3-116.3612.73389 [54]
341 [51]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA0-416.0337.93202 [38]
342 [27]Montgomery County3 - A2-215.8416.82367 [34]
343 [42]Banks County8 - AA2-215.6814.96379 [53]
344 [28]Gordon Lee6 - A2-215.6121.96337 [26]
345 [43]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-215.4327.17305 [39]
346 [44]Monticello8 - AA0-414.6936.32216 [18]
347 [29]Chattahoochee County1 - A1-314.5723.87324 [21]
348 [28]Athens Christian8 - A2-214.2414.45383 [31]
349 [45]Laney4 - AA1-314.2227.40303 [38]
350 [30]Seminole County1 - A3-113.73-5.15415 [47]
351 [45]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA1-313.6138.10198 [20]
352 [46]Murray County6 - AAA3-113.095.40409 [56]
353 [31]Greene County7 - A0-313.0827.59300 [13]
354 [46]Putnam County8 - AA1-312.9738.62195 [14]
355 [32]Jenkins County3 - A1-312.8120.09351 [29]
356 [33]Hancock Central7 - A2-212.649.33400 [43]
357 [47]Model7 - AA1-312.5922.81333 [43]
358 [51]North Clayton4 - AAAA0-412.5445.35126 [18]
359 [57]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA0-412.2835.55223 [52]
360 [34]Miller County1 - A1-312.2522.02336 [25]
361 [47]Long County2 - AAA1-311.7845.19130 [11]
362 [48]Rutland4 - AAA1-311.4735.35224 [26]
363 [29]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A0-411.4132.34255 [5]
364 [48]Butler4 - AA0-411.1428.72284 [34]
365 [52]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA3-211.085.67408 [56]
366 [49]Stone Mountain5 - AAA1-310.8028.70285 [38]
367 [49]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-39.7317.01365 [50]
368 [30]Strong Rock Christian5 - A1-39.6423.19331 [17]
369 [35]Warren County7 - A2-29.196.01407 [45]
370 [50]Lumpkin County7 - AAA1-38.7321.17341 [50]
371 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA0-48.7033.48244 [46]
372 [36]Wilkinson County7 - A0-46.3042.14163 [5]
373 [51]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA1-26.0731.94258 [35]
374 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA3-05.85-25.92422 [48]
375 [50]East Laurens3 - AA1-35.1428.58286 [35]
376 [52]Savannah3 - AAA0-45.0940.59178 [16]
377 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA1-34.9512.74388 [53]
378 [31]Pinecrest Academy6 - A0-34.4028.20295 [13]
379 [53]Kendrick4 - AAA1-34.3524.64318 [46]
380 [32]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-24.0520.86343 [18]
381 [37]Greenville4 - A1-24.0420.89342 [27]
382 [33]Pacelli4 - A3-13.06-6.08416 [37]
383 [52]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA0-42.9618.92356 [52]
384 [34]Landmark Christian5 - A1-32.2513.66386 [32]
385 [38]Lanier County2 - A1-32.0925.61311 [17]
386 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-21.776.23406 [54]
387 [54]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-31.7420.50345 [51]
388 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA2-21.666.37405 [53]
389 [51]Bryan County2 - AA0-31.3323.53328 [41]
390 [39]Hawkinsville4 - A0-41.1829.23280 [9]
391 [52]Jordan5 - AA0-41.1317.08364 [49]
392 [40]Treutlen3 - A3-10.74-13.24418 [49]
393 [53]Dade County7 - AA0-40.1117.38362 [48]
394 [54]Gordon Central7 - AA0-4-0.3529.77275 [30]
395 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-3-0.4235.19227 [41]
396 [35]Lakeview Academy8 - A0-2-0.4616.33369 [26]
397 [36]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-4-0.5736.95212 [3]
398 [55]Armuchee7 - AA0-4-1.2431.34265 [28]
399 [55]Towers5 - AAA1-3-1.5314.97378 [52]
400 [37]Providence Christian8 - A1-3-2.0019.52353 [22]
401 [56]Social Circle8 - AA1-2-3.801.96412 [59]
402 [41]Calhoun County1 - A1-3-4.7310.52397 [42]
403 [57]Josey4 - AA0-3-5.3024.04321 [40]
404 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-5-6.1731.61260 [54]
405 [58]McNair6 - AA0-4-6.3316.31372 [52]
406 [42]Portal3 - A0-4-7.4712.91387 [39]
407 [43]Towns County8 - A0-4-9.1228.37292 [12]
408 [44]Baconton Charter1 - A1-3-9.1823.51329 [24]
409 [56]Groves3 - AAA0-3-10.0438.67194 [19]
410 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA1-3-10.3714.08385 [55]
411 [45]Central (Talbotton)4 - A1-2-12.1816.29373 [35]
412 [46]Crawford County4 - A1-2-14.49-12.81417 [48]
413 [38]Georgia Military College7 - A2-2-14.89-21.48421 [38]
414 [47]Wheeler County3 - A1-3-16.9715.89376 [36]
415 [48]Twiggs County7 - A0-4-18.2019.13354 [30]
416 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-5-23.3211.09394 [54]
417 [49]Stewart County1 - A1-3-27.45-16.88419 [50]
418 [1]Glascock County7 - A†1-4-34.49-18.27420 [3]
419 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-3-37.1310.89395 [41]
420 [2]ACE Charter7 - A†0-4-46.733.75410 [1]
421 [3]Pataula Charter1 - A†0-4-49.51-1.99414 [2]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-5-71.858.50402 [55]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA90.5278.99
23 - AAAAAAA83.3369.42
38 - AAAAAAA82.9663.17
41 - AAAAAA81.6570.34
56 - AAAAAAA80.2057.49
67 - AAAA75.3651.27
75 - AAAA73.9953.65
81 - AAAAA72.7161.07
95 - AAAAAAA72.4454.01
104 - AAAAA71.8552.92
114 - AAAAAAA70.6256.54
128 - AAAAA69.9241.60
136 - AAAAAA69.3549.08
147 - AAAAAAA69.3444.91
157 - AAAAA68.7947.04
165 - AAA68.4844.15
178 - AAAAAA67.5449.71
182 - AAAAA65.5056.10
192 - AAAAAAA64.5750.82
202 - A61.6734.34
212 - AAAAAA61.0948.14
224 - AAA60.6132.19
233 - AA60.4843.44
242 - AAAA59.7948.49
255 - AAAAAA59.5444.41
268 - AAAA58.5148.06
273 - AAAA58.1243.30
284 - AAAA57.5925.57
295 - A57.4732.87
301 - AA57.0845.33
312 - AAA56.6738.29
323 - AAAAA55.7839.93
337 - AAA55.5629.92
348 - AAA55.5137.28
351 - AAAA55.2837.87
365 - AA54.7032.40
374 - AAAAAA54.1237.57
387 - AAAAAA53.9939.25
393 - AAA52.0026.28
402 - AA51.7034.51
418 - AA51.6819.85
428 - A51.6525.63
 8-Div A - A51.6432.14
 8-Div B - A38.2219.59
437 - AA49.8718.02
441 - AAA49.4233.31
456 - AA49.3623.35
466 - AAAAA48.4531.11
476 - AAA48.2027.58
483 - AAAAAA47.9437.69
496 - A47.9026.28
 6-Div A - A44.7231.34
 6-Div B - A40.1220.85
506 - AAAA43.4426.64
514 - AA42.2122.08
523 - A40.9719.87
 3-Div A - A40.5927.42
 3-Div B - A28.0412.21
535 - AAAAA39.2125.42
544 - A38.5316.97
 4-Div A - A34.9915.99
 4-Div B - A31.5217.78
557 - A36.7017.03
 7-Div B - A32.7216.86
 7-Div A - A29.7117.23
561 - A36.557.72

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/20Eagle's Landing ChristianHoly Innocents41 - 4215.1081.9%0.278
09/12StephensonMount Zion (Jonesboro)9 - 1411.7576.4%0.311
09/13Peach CountyHouston County31 - 3211.2775.5%0.337
08/30West HallJohnson (Gainesville)27 - 309.3371.8%0.359
08/30Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeGordon Lee10 - 138.2669.5%0.377
09/14CambridgeDunwoody19 - 218.3269.7%0.380
09/20CalhounNorth Murray7 - 315.3763.1%0.385
08/30BremenBowdon7 - 206.1364.9%0.386
08/30CassAdairsville7 - 145.9564.5%0.403
08/30Stewart CountyGlascock County56 - 605.9764.5%0.411
09/20Strong Rock ChristianLandmark Christian12 - 136.3165.3%0.416
09/06Turner CountyTaylor County7 - 124.9262.1%0.426
09/06HarlemWashington-Wilkes14 - 264.0059.9%0.428
08/23Mary PersonsGainesville21 - 274.4961.0%0.431
09/13Colquitt CountyValdosta49 - 505.1662.6%0.433

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
90.7411/01Colquitt CountyLowndes - 0.0650.1%
89.8509/27Colquitt CountyGrayson - 3.4058.4%
87.5309/13Colquitt CountyValdosta49 - 505.1662.6%
86.9108/24Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett17 - 66.6366.0%
86.6909/27LowndesValdosta - 6.1765.0%
84.9010/18GraysonArcher - 5.5563.5%
82.4709/27BufordArcher - 1.3953.5%
82.2610/11North GwinnettMill Creek - 3.2458.0%
81.3409/13ArcherMill Creek7 - 100.9152.3%
80.6709/06BufordMilton26 - 233.4358.5%
80.4110/18McEachernMarietta - 6.9166.6%
80.3009/06LowndesParkview38 - 713.0378.6%
79.6809/13GraysonMarietta28 - 1412.4677.7%
78.6209/27MiltonParkview - 2.1055.2%
77.6309/20Colquitt CountyWarner Robins31 - 1416.5584.0%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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