The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 421 teams throughout the 2016 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results:
- Buford finally finished their three game out of state run, which itself was preceded by a bye week. To date, the Wolves have only one GHSA game on the season while other teams have as many as six. An unfortunate limitation of the ratings is that out of state games are more or less ignored because of the difficultly in collecting the data. As a result, Buford's current schedule strength sits at 98.52, the rating of their sole GHSA opponent, Roswell.
However Colquitt County and Archer have the toughest regular season schedules in total by roughly a touchdown. Buford's drops significantly when considering their entire slate of opponents, down to 41.18, good enough for only number 173 in the state.
Below are the top 15 schedule strengths in total, not counting out of state opponents:
- Here's another look at the regular season schedule strengths in total for the 47 undefeated teams, along with their projected record and their probability of finishing undefeated.
† - Nine game regular season schedule
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 20.28%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 893 of 969 total games including 7 tie(s) (92.52%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.68 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.
Home Advantage: 0.45
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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